At the Close: U.S. Stocks Edge Higher; CME Group Surges; Miners Fall

In a day that saw U.S. markets go from gains, to losses, and back again, stocks finished higher as investors decided that disappointing economic data was, in fact, good news, or something like that.

REUTERS

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gained 0.2% to 15,451, while the Standard & Poor's 500 (SPX) rose 0.3% to 1694.16 and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) finished up  0.4% at 3,684.44.

This morning, investors decided to take a more bearish stance towards data that showed retail sales gain 0.2% in July, less than the 0.3% forecast by economists. As the day moved on, the focus turned to other aspects of the report–the upward revision in June’s number and the 0.5% gain in retail sales sans car purchases–and stocks rose.

I don’t want to make too much of the data, however. Clearly it was a Rorschach test of sorts, to see what you want to see. And really, investors are trying to gauge whether the Ben Bernanke and his buds at the Federal Reserve think the economy is strong enough to end its bond buying–and what it means for stocks if it does.

Hence, investors shouldn’t make too much of the day’s action–or lack thereof. The gap between the day’s high and low was just 0.8 percentage point, and the CBOE Volatility Index slid another 3.9% to 12.31, a sign that price swings in stocks are muted at best.

But even with markets trading in a range since July, there was plenty of action in individual stocks, even as earnings season nears an end. CME Group (CME), for instance, gained 4% to $74.44, its biggest move two months, after the exchange operator said trading volume in its Brent crude oil futures contracts climbed above 100,000 for the first time on Aug. 8. CME is trying to woo traders away from IntercontinentalExchange’s (ICE) dominant futures contract. Xerox (XRX), meanwhile, finished up 3.4% at $10.49 after Citigroup upgraded its stock to Buy from Neutral and the company announced that it would acquire a Canadian company.

Newmont Mining (NEM) fell 2.7% to $30.08, as gold fell 0.9% to $1322 an ounce. Blame that tapering speculation again. Alcoa (AA) fell 1.3% to $8.15–probably for the same reason–making it the Dow Jones Industrial’s biggest loser.

Still, the S&P 500 has been locked in a tight range for the last month, with just 2% separating the high and the low during that period. Don’t expect much excitement until investors get more clarity on the strength of the US. economy and the Fed’s tapering.