Thursday, January 29, 2015

Twitter: Great Story or Not, TWTR Stock Has a Valuation Problem

LinkedIn Logo RSS Logo James Brumley Popular Posts: 10 Stocks Under $20 to Buy in 2014Horrible Bosses – The Worst 5 CEOs of 20135 ‘Problem’ Stocks to Avoid in 2014 Recent Posts: Twitter: Great Story or Not, TWTR Stock Has a Valuation Problem Horrible Bosses – The Worst 5 CEOs of 2013 5 ‘Problem’ Stocks to Avoid in 2014 View All Posts

The last few days have been, shall we say, less than great for Twitter (TWTR) shareholders. TWTR stock remains down 13% from last Thursday’s peak of $74.73, even with Tuesday’s 6% bounce … and worse, there’s still room for TWTR to keep falling.

TWTR-stock-price-twitterTwitter fans will be quick to point out that the value of TWTR stock had nearly tripled from its IPO price, setting up the inevitable — and obviously temporary — slide that shares have just experienced. After all, the company’s revenue is poised to see wildly hot growth over the next couple years, and it’s only a matter of time before the rest of the market recognizes this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

There’s just one problem with that optimistic assumption: There’s no possible way Twitter could ever even justify its current price around $60, let alone last Thursday’s peak of more than $74. Indeed, it would be tough for anyone to justify TWTR stock being valued at even half of its current price.

Offended? That’s fine. But before you grab your pitchfork and prepare the tar and feathers, at least hear the argument.

The Tail Is Wagging the Dog

Most of the time, a company’s underlying fundamentals drive the value of that company’s stock. It’s a loose, elastic connection, but a discernable connection all the same. In some cases, however, the story of a company is much bigger than its actual results. In those cases, the buzz surrounding stock itself dictates how that company’s fundamentals are perceived (or outright ignored).

TWTR stock falls in the latter category. That’s how Twitter shares managed to run from an intraday low of $38.80 in late November to a high of $74.73 in late December.

There’s just one problem with those buzz-born rallies, though: Once the buzz stops, it’s anyone’s guess as to when, or if, the bullish buzz will get going again.

The risk of that silence is clear, too. TWTR stock lost more than 20% of its value in just a two-day span before the buyers stepped back up to the plate again Tuesday. Just for the record, though, there’s no assurance that Twitter-mania will keep the rebound in motion. See, during that two-day rough spot, traders were forced to at least consider the possibility that the newest sensation on the social media landscape might not be all it’s been touted to be.

In other words, the honeymoon is over. From here on out, Twitter is going to have to keep its stock pumped up based on results. That’s where things get tricky, as Twitter isn’t even close to creating results worth touting.

The Twitter Numbers Still Don’t Make Sense

If you’re reading this, odds are you’re already aware of the forecasts for Twitter’s top line through 2015. Still, it never hurts to have a refresher.

Among the six investment banks that underwrote the Twitter IPO — presumably the organizations most familiar with Twitter’s inner workings — on average they’re expecting revenue of $968 million in 2014, and revenue of $1.29 billion for 2015.

For perspective, Twitter’s current market cap is $35 billion. That’s a price-to-sales ratio (and a projected one, at that) of 27.3, which is more than 10 times the market’s norm of around 2.5.

As for earnings — real, operational earnings — well, that’s not even part of the average investor’s equation at this point. The sheer premise of TWTR stock is enough to keep some folks on the hook. To the extent it matters, though, many of the same brains that expect Twitter to generate revenue of $1.28 billion in 2015 expect a profit of 18 cents per share for the same year. Compare that to the stock’s current price of $63.65, and what you’ve got is a forward-looking P/E ratio of 353 — about 23 times greater than the market-average P/E of 15.1.

But Twitter is going to trounce those estimates, you say? OK, fine — just for the sake of argument, let’s say Twitter can surpass its current expectations. By how much can the company leave the outlooks in the dust? Even if revenues roll in twice as strong as 2015′s expected figure, shares are still valued at 13.6 times the market normal price/sales ratio. And even if profits reach 36 cents per share in 2015 vs. the projected 18 cents, TWTR stock’s value is still 176 times its future income, or still more than 11 times the market’s typical price/earnings ratio.

Point being, there’s still not any room for more justifiable value.

So the final question to consider here is this: When is the music going to stop?

Well, once the market realizes there’s a serious lack of value here, the “right-pricing” pressure could make the last few days look like child’s play.

As of this writing, James Brumley did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

GM Third-Quarter Earnings Beat Wall Street Forecasts

Renaissance Center Light Bands (The General Motors logo and a blue light band are displayed atop the Renaissance Center in DetroCarlos Osorio/AP DETROIT -- General Motors' third-quarter net income fell 53 percent compared with a year ago, as one-time expenses masked a strong performance in North America and a narrowed loss in Europe. The company earned $698 million in the quarter, or 45 cents a share. That compares with $1.48 billion, or 89 cents a share, a year ago. But without $900 million in one-time items, GM earned $1.7 billion, or 96 cents a share. That beat Wall Street expectations. Analysts polled by FactSet expected 94 cents a share. Revenue rose 4 percent to $39 billion, just short of Wall Street's estimate of $39.2 billion. Investors viewed the results favorably. GM (GM) shares rose 87 cents, or 2.4 percent, to $36.93 in morning trading. GM's performance in North America was especially strong, with pretax earnings up 28 percent to $2.2 billion on solid pickup truck sales and better pricing. GM rolled out updated versions of its Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra pickups in the spring. The company's profit margin in North America -- the percentage of revenue it gets to keep after expenses -- was the highest in two years at 9.3 percent. GM has a goal of 10 percent pretax margins in the region. "The new trucks are doing great in the marketplace," Chief Financial Officer Dan Ammann said. "We're commanding good pricing. We're controlling costs." GM's average sales price rose 1 percent in the U.S. during the quarter to $34,566, according to Kelley Blue Book. Sales of the Silverado, its top-selling vehicle, were up 14 percent over last year's third quarter. Prices for the pickup rose by 2 percent to an average of $36,487. In Europe, GM cut its loss by more than half to $214 million. Revenue there rose year-over-year for the first time in two years. Ammann said the company cut $400 million in costs during the quarter, and updated versions of its Opel Mokka small crossover SUV, Adam subcompact and Insignia midsize car sold well. GM's International Operations, including Asia, saw pretax earnings fall 61 percent to $299 million due to struggles in India and other areas outside of China. South American profit rose 79 percent to $159 million. The company's financial unit saw a 20 percent rise in pretax earnings to $239 million. "We continue to have challenges in some markets," Ammann said. Some are due to industrywide issues such as competitors lowering prices, but some are execution problems on GM's part, he said. South American profit rose 79 percent to $284 million. The company's financial unit saw a 20 percent rise in pretax earnings to $239 million. One-time items included $800 million to buy preferred stock from a health care trust for union retirees and a $48 million impairment charge in South Korea. Several major U.S. corporations dodge domestic taxes by moving profits internationally to tax havens. For example, a company can utilize the "double Irish" formula to minimize their U.S. taxes. If the profits from the sale of a good stayed in the U.S., they would be taxed at the federal 35 percent rate. However, some companies sell the intellectual property rights to an Irish subsidiary to minimize tax obligations. The profits from that U.S. sale are paid overseas to the Irish subsidiary. As long as the Irish subsidiary is controlled by managers elsewhere - for instance, a Caribbean tax haven - the profits can move around the world without a dime of taxation. At this point, the profits are moved to a nation with no tax, skirting around the U.S. 35 percent rate.  

By Business Insider

Corporations can avoid paying taxes on US profits with the "Double Irish" arrangement. This is the "Double" part of the Double Irish, and also entails a trip through the Netherlands. When the same company's product is sold overseasthat profit is routed to a second Irish subsidiary, Since Ireland has treaties with the Netherlands to make inter-European transfers tax free, the profits are then routed through the Netherlands, and then back to the first Irish subsidiary, and then to the no-tax Caribbean Island. As a result, the U.S. company never has to repatriate the money and they never has to pay taxes on the products.

Bank of America’s Truce and 2 Surging Stocks

In this segment from Thursday's episode of The Motley Fool's everything-financials show, Where the Money Is, banking analysts Matt Koppenheffer and David Hanson go through a rapid-fire round of three top headlines. The newsmakers included KKR (NYSE: KKR  ) , Bank of America (NYSE: BAC  ) , Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS  ) , Lazard (NYSE: LAZ  ) , and Evercore (NYSE: EVR  ) .

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Monday, January 26, 2015

Upcoming Trial Data for Inovio and OncoSec Add to Market’s Interest in Electroporation

Recently presented data from a preclinical study performed using Inovio Pharmaceuticals' (NYSE: INO) DNA vaccine against the H7N9 strain of avian influenza (bird flu) garnered some interest and buying momentum in INO, although investors seemed even more impressed after the release of the peer-reviewed publication analyzing the data from 2 Phase I trials for Inovio's PENNVAX-B vaccine, which was delivered using Inovio's CELLECTRA electroporation device. PENNVAX induced a strong T-cell response in 89% of the patients that had received three doses of the vaccine plus a signaling protein called Interleukin-12, inducing a best-in-class immune system response against HIV.

In light of the data, INO is up 93% in the last month of trading and hit a recent 52-week high of $1.57/share. Although the stock has pulled back, investors who are bullish on the stock now have more detailed Phase I clinical data supporting their position.

Although the data are from Phase I trials, they demonstrate quite clearly that the delivery of DNA plasmids into mammalian cells via electroporation – in vivo – truly works as intended. This is exciting for biotech investors due to the broad range of possibilities introduced by DNA vaccination.

Another company that has benefitted from Inovio's newfound attention is OncoSec Medical (OTC: ONCS) – a newer "offshoot" company that uses a similar but distinctly different electroporation device known as the OncoSec Medical System (OMS) that is based on Inovio's technology. The specific amplitude and frequency of the OMS electroporation is calibrated such that plasmid delivery into solid tumor masses is fully optimized, while CELLECTRA electroporation is less specialized and focus more on the vaccination of skin cells. The cross-license agreement made between Inovio and Oncosec also covers the two devices for their distinctly different applications.

The two companies also have significant upside potential in the coming months based on catalysts for their most important development programs.

Inovio – Phase II Cervical Dysplasia Data for VGX-3100

The link between Human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer has been well established with past research, although significant unmet demand still remains for more effective vaccines to prevent cervical dysplasia caused by HPV in patients that already contracted the virus. Current treatment is limited to HPV prevention. The VGX-3100 program aims to prevent cervical cancer by inducing a strong immune response against precancerous cells that have been mutated by a HPV infection. The activated T-cells may be able to eliminate – or at least regress the cervical cancer.

Phase II data for the VGX-3100 program is expected in the first quarter of 2014, which will provide more data on the extent of the immune response induced by the VGX-3100 DNA construct and the CELLECTRA electroporation device.

Inovio has already reached a market capitalization of $232 M at the time of writing, which limits the stock's upside but establishes Wall Street's initial confidence in the commercial viability of DNA vaccines. Given strong Phase II data, Inovio should be able to move above a $300 M valuation and stay there.

OncoSec – Phase II Melanoma Data for ImmunoPulse

ImmunoPulse is the name OncoSec uses to refer to the therapy that was developed using the OMS with a plasmid designed to code for Interleukin-12. IL-12, which was mentioned earlier, is a signaling protein that plays a vital role the body's natural immune system response. ImmunoPulse is currently being developed for three separate indications: late-stage melanoma, Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC), and cutaneous T-cell Lymphoma. These are all in Phase II development, although it's worth noting that the melanoma indication is the furthest developed of the three and has recently completed enrollment for its 25-patient trials.

In multiple past trials Interleukin-12 was demonstrated to be an efficacious anti-cancer therapy (particularly melanoma), although it was always constrained by its safety profile. Patients who received the most effective doses of recombinant IL-12 saw unacceptable hepatotoxicity, and other adverse side effects which prevented its widespread use by doctors. Through the use of plasmids, OncoSec is able to introduce similarly high levels of IL-12 into patients without any apparent signs of toxicity.

"OncoSec put ImmunoPulse through a 24-patient Phase I safety trial to determine the profile of plasmid interleukin-12 paired with electroporation with the Oncosec Medical System. Robust expression of IL-12 – as high as 2,813 pg/g (convertible to 2,813 ng/kg) was seen in patients who received the highest dosing of IL-12 plasmid at 1.6 mg/mL on day 11. Mean IL-12 expression in two three-patient cohorts receiving the highest dosage were  1,124 and 870 ng/kg respectively, surpassing the limits of recombinant IL-12 injections."

(Source)

Interim response data from the nearly-completed Phase II melanoma trial is expected in Q3 2013, while the full data is expected in Q4 2013 or Q1 2014. The market generally disregards Phase I data, implying that a continuation of the good results seen in Phase I trials with ImmunoPulse will draw significant attention to OncoSec and the commercial potential in melanoma, MCC and cutaneous lymphoma. In particular, investors are looking for significant responses in malignant melanoma tumors that are distant from the electroporation and IL-12 injection sites, which would imply that ImmunoPulse generates a systemic (rather than local) immune response. Since this is very difficult to achieve with tolerable doses of Interleukin-12, it's implied that ImmunoPulse will make IL-12 viable for oncologists treating late-stage melanoma patients that have subpar or compromised organ function.

OncoSec is trading at a $36.6 M valuation at the time of writing, which reflects the market's skepticism over the company's technology and commercial viability. Positive Phase II data is likely to have a bigger percentage-based impact on Oncosec's valuation, since it would put the company "on the radar" for larger biotech investors. This effect could double the stock pretty easily within the next year, although investors buying now are exposing themselves to a double-edged sword.


Saturday, January 24, 2015

FSI Claims Victory in Florida ‘Notice-Filing State’ Battle

The Financial Services Institute is claiming victory in its legislative fight “to protect investors’ access to affordable, independent financial advice.”

The legislation in question, signed into law late Friday by Gov. Rick Scott of Florida, makes it a “notice-filing state” for branch office applications. The law makes it easier for advisors to make changes to their business, no longer forcing them to close for the application process, which would cost them revenue and clients.

While this pertains to Florida, FSI says the implications are nationwide, since it affects every financial services firm with affiliated financial advisors in Florida, regardless of where the firm is headquartered. FSI worked closely with Rep. Dane Eagle (R-77) and Sen. Jeff Brandes (R-22) in crafting this legislation.

“This law is another historic step forward for FSI members, who have united once again to affect positive change,” FSI President and CEO Dale Brown said in a statement. “We applaud the elected officials and the Florida Office of Financial Regulation, who all came together with our members to make a positive difference. This is exactly how government/private partnerships should work to serve our mutual constituencies. And it shows how much FSI’s members can accomplish when they work together and speak with one voice.”

Some scenarios of when advisors need to re-file, or file for the first time, which would cause the delays include:

1.)           When an advisor changes broker-dealer affiliation

2.)           When an advisor moves his current office address to another address

3.)           When a firm operating in another state wants to open a new branch office in Florida

4.)           When a firm already operating in Florida opens a new branch office

The new law places the filing system online and mandates approval be automatic, keeping the advisor working and protecting clients’ access to their advice.

After working with the Office of Financial Regulation to find common ground on the legislation language, FSI agreed to language that makes Florida a notice-filing state, but allows the OFR to require broker-dealers to resolve deficiencies in their filing within 30 days. 

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Check out Florida’s Notice-Filing Legislation Affects Advisors Nationwide on AdvisorOne.

Thursday, January 22, 2015

There's Plenty of Room for Stocks to Fall from Here

 Everything that told us to "buy" six weeks ago is screaming at us to "sell" today.   Short-term conditions have gone from bullish to neutral (but still expecting higher prices) and back to bearish in just the past six weeks.   We don't usually flip-flop back and forth so quickly... But the market is suffering from multiple personality disorder. And when the character changes, we have to change our strategy.   This week, the strategy is bearish. Here's why...    The S&P 500 closed above its upper Bollinger Band last week. Take a look...     The index closed back inside the bands (blue lines) on Friday. That's a broad stock market "sell" signal. As you can see from the chart above, that happened two other times over the past year – in September and April. Following each signal, the S&P 500 sold off and dropped toward its lower Bollinger Band.   Right now, the lower Bollinger Band is at about 1,570. So there's plenty of room for stocks to fall if the bears take control.   Also, notice the two-day relative strength indicator (RSI) at the bottom of the chart. This provides a short-term measure of overbought or oversold conditions. Anything above 70 is considered overbought. (The maximum reading possible is 100.) It closed at 99.87 on Friday.    The McClellan Oscillator is also in overbought territory...     The oversold reading on this indicator helped us turn bullish back in June. Now, it's telling us to go the other way.    Finally, there's the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Index. Last week, this contrary indicator posted the largest percentage of bulls (48.9%) and lowest percentage of bears (18.3%) since May 23. Back then, the S&P 500 peaked at 1,670 and lost 4% over the next two weeks.   The market has enjoyed a healthy rally over the past month. But as I warned two weeks ago, short-term conditions moved quickly from oversold to neutral. Now they're overbought. So there's a good chance the gains we've seen over the past two weeks could vanish just as fast.   – Jeff Clark



Detroit Continues to Dominate Pickup Market

No vehicle segment has more impact on Detroit's Big Three automakers as the full-size pickup does. The good news for Ford (NYSE: F  ) , General Motors (NYSE: GM  ) and Chrysler is that they continue to watch their sales rebound from the depths of the recession. A rising tide raises all boats, and in this case we're seeing a perfect storm of factors that look to keep pickup sales – and their respective automakers' profits – very strong. I'll cover those factors, and show you just how strong the sales came in for June.

Detroit dominance
If you break down last year's numbers, Ford's F-Series was the leader in the full-size segment, owning 38.5% of the market with its crosstown rival GM coming in at 35.5% (a combination of its Silverado and Sierra sales). Chrysler's Ram came in third at a respectable 17.5%. That adds up to Detroit owning nearly 92% of the most profitable segment in the U.S. which produced our nation's two top-selling vehicles – the F-Series and Silverado.

To put in perspective how important this segment is, let me remind you that full-size pickups are estimated to bring in as much as 60% of Detroit automakers' profits. While the automakers are trying to lessen their dependence on the segment, they can enjoy the surge in sales for now. The good news is that there is still plenty of room for optimism and growth.


Information from Automotive News DataCenter. 2013 Projected by author from sales through June.

Using the first half of the year in sales to project the second half, we can see that Detroit looks to continue its rebound in sales. Ford is outpacing the growth, yet that is something GM hopes to change as sales of its redesigned 2014 Silverado strengthen.

In June, Ford's F-Series posted sales of 68,009 trucks, which was an impressive 23.6% gain over last year, and Ford is up 22% for the year – remaining America's best-selling truck and vehicle.

Last month, GM's Silverado sales increased 28.9% to hit 43,259 trucks sold, still trailing the F-Series by nearly 25,000 for June alone. The GMC Sierra also had a nice 32.8% increase over last June, recording 16,568 in sales.

Not wanting to be left behind, Chrysler's Ram truck sales came in at 29,644, which was good for a 24% increase over last year. The Ram truck in year-to-date sales is also up 23% compared to last year. The Ram truck brand had the largest sales gain of any Chrysler brand and had its best June since 2007.

Shown in the graph below, transaction prices climb for full-size pickups much faster than the overall industry – driving big top-line revenue gains. This will have a huge positive impact when all Detroit automakers report quarterly earnings later this month.


Information source: Edmunds.com. 

"Quite simply, it's a great time to be in the truck business," said Kurt McNeil, head of General Motors sales operations in the United States, in a conference call last month.

McNeil is exactly right, and it only looks to improve going forward for a few reasons. The age of the average vehicle on the road remains at record highs of about 11 years, yet trucks are kept even longer, clocking in at about 13 years of age. This emphasizes that pent-up demand still exists and will continue to unleash as our economy gradually improves.

In addition to pent-up demand, an improving housing sector and ensuing construction rebound is bringing out contractors who had been waiting for more business before buying new work trucks. This has also been the case in North America's recent energy boom in oil and natural gas – continuing strong demand in the full-size pickup segment.

As fuel efficiency and CAFE standards continue to increase, we're seeing truck fuel-efficiency improve enough that the average user who doesn't haul anything can buy a pickup for everyday driving.

Bottom line
June was the last month of sales for the second quarter. It looks to be a very impressive quarter for Detroit automakers' revenues and profits, as long as losses in Europe were minimized and incentives were kept in check. Recently, Detroit autos have topped imports in incentives, but with transaction prices on the rise, that impact should be negated. We know one thing for sure: Revenues, margins, and profits should all be increasing on the drastic surge from the full-size pickup segment and the automotive industry rebound in general – something for every Detroit auto investor to be thrilled about.

We're witnessing a strong rebound in auto stocks, but which two are best positioned for market beating gains? A recent Motley Fool report, "2 Automakers to Buy for a Surging Chinese Market", names two global giants poised to reap big gains that could drive big rewards for investors. You can read this report right now for free – just click here for instant access.

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

The Curse of the Parabolic Move

 Oh sure... it's all fun and games when prices are going straight up.   But as the old saying goes... What goes up must come down. And the straighter up it goes, the faster it drops...    Take the utility sector, for example...   We first warned about the dangers of the parabolic move in utility stocks a few weeks ago. You can see what has happened to the sector since then...   Utility Stocks Have Crashed Over the Last Few Weeks   So with this chart in mind – and with a profitable utility short sale under our belt – it's worthwhile to look for other parabolic moves in danger of breaking down. Here's what we found...    Japan's stock market has been ripping higher since December – when the Bank of Japan announced its own version of quantitative easing. The Japan iShares Fund (NYSE: EWJ) rallied 33% in five months before giving up some of those gains last week.   Over the long term, this bull market could power higher. But in the short term, if the parabolic breakdown plays out as it has in the utility sector, any brief bounce this week could be followed by even lower prices later on. EWJ has support at about $10.50 – which looks like a good downside target...   Japanese Stocks (EWJ) Have Further to Fall    What started out as a steady grind higher for Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT)shares this year has morphed into a parabolic blast-off. The stock is up 23% in just the past five weeks.   The chart does look like it can push higher at least one more time. But the move is getting very stretched. A reversal from slightly higher levels could knock the stock back down to support near $31. If you have a long-term position in the stock, that shouldn't affect you one way or the other. But short-term traders can consider taking some money off the table...   Microsoft's (MSFT) Upward Move is Getting Stretched    With the stock up 200% in two months, there's no question shares of Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) have gone parabolic. Shorting this stock is tough to do, though, since 44% of the float is already sold short – and painfully underwater. When this electric-car bubble finally pops, it should be one heck of an explosion...   Tesla Motors (TSLA) Has Gone Parabolic   – Jeff Clark



Monday, January 19, 2015

5 Things Your Landlord Wants You to Know

In the world of renting, the relationship between a landlord and a tenant can be a tricky one. The reality is, a landlord wants what's best for their investment property and that means they want you, their beloved tenant, to know a few important things, so the time you spend under their roof is a great one!

Here are the five key things every landlord wants their tenant to know:

1. Everyone wins when you read your lease
This sounds so simple and basic, but you wouldn't believe how many people that have never actually read their entire lease agreement. Upon first glance, it's an unending list of paragraphs and jumble, especially if your building or home is managed by a property manager or large company. But within all those pages, the tenants can learn not only what is expected of them, but what is expected of the landlord. Knowing your rights and the rules helps you avoid issues before they become problems. Most leases have very specific guidelines for every category: rent payments, late penalties, tenant utility responsibilities, noise issues, additional occupants policy, proper notice for vacating, procedure for repair requests etc. Understanding the lease allows you to to avoid costly extra charges and keep you protected from giving the landlord reason to financially penalize you or worse ... evict you. Take the 15 minutes to read your lease — it is a win/win for everyone.

2. Landlords don't want to charge you late fees or returned check fees
Do you think that landlords love to receive all those late fees and other charges from you? They don't. They also really hope you not are late each month or bounce checks so they can up-charge you extra fees. No matter how much more they are receiving because of your inability to manage your finances, it not worth the hassle of chasing you down for the overdue rent and bounced funds. The bottom line is they will charge you, and if you do not pay all due rent and fees, at some point they can evict you. But trust me, it costs you far more than it bothers them. Late fees can range from 5-10% of your rent, and banks are charging huge fees for returned checks these days. Consistently racking up those fees can cost you an enormous amount of money each year. And it can set you up for eviction proceedings, which will then also affect your credit score and your ability to rent elsewhere.

3. Pet stains will cost you far more than you think
We love our dogs and cats, and thankfully, many apartment buildings will allow them. However, the big shocker always comes when a tenant moves out and he or she is hit with a huge repair bill. Why? Well, that little stain on the wall-to-wall carpet may seem pretty small to you. However, pet urine seeps deep into carpet and into the padding below. Your landlord is not going to be able to rent that apartment to the next tenant with pet-stained carpet. And unfortunately for you, most of the time the entire room of wall-to-wall carpet and padding will have to be replaced. What about those shiny hardwood floors? Even more expensive to repair. Pet urine will soak into hardwood and leave dark stains that often cannot be sanded out. Actual planks will need to be replaced. So whether you have carpet or hardwood, your deposit will become a distant memory if sweet little Fido has one too many accidents.

4. Your deposit is not your last month's rent
More and more landlords are now asking for first month's rent, last month's rent, and a security deposit when you move into an apartment. That is a lot of money. On a $1,900/month apartment or house, that comes to $5,700—just to move in! Sometimes, you get lucky and you'll be asked for only your first month's rent and the security deposit up front. But this is where you can get yourself into a lot of hot water down the line. Many tenants assume that your deposit money can be used as your last month's rent. Wrong. It is a security-damage deposit. Something completely separate. Refusing to pay your last month's rent by offering up your deposit can ultimately cost you far more than that rent payment. You will be slapped with a notice of eviction and late rent charges. This can potentially ding your credit, destroy your ability to use your current landlord as a reference for your new apt, and open you up to legal action. Plan ahead, don't get stuck short for cash — allocate enough funds so that when it is time to move, you have enough for the upfront fees for your new place, as well as enough to cover your current obligations.

5. If you are a good tenant, landlords don't want you to move
If you are quiet, nice, clean, and pay your rent on time, chances are you're considered a good tenant. Good tenants are valuable. One of the biggest costs associated with being a landlord is the apartment turn-over process when a tenant moves out. There is lost rent for any time the unit is not occupied, cleaning costs, and high-dollar improvements to be made. Yes, landlords need to continually raise rents to keep up with the increased costs of running the building, taxes, insurance, etc., but if you do some homework and determine that you are paying close to the current market rent, you may be able to make a case to forgo a rent increase this year or at least come to a compromise. If your landlord is asking for a 5% increase on a $1,500 rent ($75.00/month), he won't want to lose you over that $75.00. You may be able to ask to split the difference or even skip the rent increase entirely this year.

This article originally appeared on Trulia.com.

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Hackers stole $100 million of U.S. military and Xbox tech - FBI

Meet the cat that can steal your Wi-Fi   Meet the cat that can steal your Wi-Fi NEW YORK (CNNMoney) Federal officials have accused four men of hacking into computer networks of the U.S. military and Microsoft and stealing more than $100 million worth of software.

In an indictment unsealed Tuesday, the four are accused of stealing proprietary software used to train Apache helicopter pilots as well as source code and technical specifications related to the Microsoft (MSFT, Tech30) Xbox One gaming console and games including "Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3."

The FBI says the men conspired to "use, share and sell" the stolen information, and federal officials have already seized $620,000 in alleged proceeds from the scheme.

The defendants are Nathan Leroux, 20, of Bowie, Md.; Sanadodeh Nesheiwat, 28, of Washington, N.J.; Austin Alcala, 18, of McCordsville, Ind.; and David Pokora, 22, of Mississauga, Ontario, Canada.

Pokora and Nesheiwat have already pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit computer fraud and copyright infringement and are awaiting sentencing in January. Pokora's plea, the Justice Department said, "is believed to be the first conviction of a foreign-based individual for hacking into U.S. businesses to steal trade secret information."

Defense attorneys for the four men could not be reached for comment.

The FBI says the scheme ran from January 2011 until March of this year. The group allegedly gained access to their targets by injecting malicious code into their networks and stealing user names and passwords from company employees.

Saturday, January 17, 2015

Social Security Disability: Why Do So Many Americans Get Denied?


Source: Social Security Administration.

When most Americans think of Social Security, they focus on the retirement benefits they'll eventually receive from the program. But for those who suffer an injury or illness that prevents them from working long-term, Social Security disability benefits are far more important, and those benefits can be the only dependable income source to help them deal with the financial challenges of living without earned income.

Over the past 15 years, the need for disability benefits has grown greatly. Yet as the most recent figures from the Social Security Administration show, approval rates for disability benefit applications have plunged over that period, and almost two-thirds of all applications for Social Security disability now get rejected. Let's take a closer look at the numbers and the rationale behind them, as well as some things you can do to boost the odds of having your application approved.

The upward trend in disability benefit applications
The Social Security Administration has seen a huge spike in applications for disability benefits. As you can see below, since 1999, the number of applications has more than doubled, and after hitting new peaks in 2009 and 2010 in the aftermath of the Great Recession, claim volume has moderated only minimally.


Source: Author, based on Social Security Administration data.

Yet even with that surge in applications, the percentage of those claims gaining approval has plunged. The SSA accepted more than half of all applications for disability in 1999, but that rate fell to 33.5% by last year.


Source: Author, based on Social Security Administration data.

Interestingly, though, many people who are involved in approving Social Security disability insurance say they feel increasing pressure to approve applicants' claims. For years, major backlogs of disability claim disputes have led to immense workloads for administrative law judges charged with handling appeals of disability claims that the SSA initially rejected. Some judges have even faced allegations that they were effectively rubber-stamping benefit awards for cases under their review, with the House Oversight Committee having identified at least four judges who approved more than 90% of the cases they heard.

Set the stage for disability approval
Many people misunderstand when Social Security disability benefits come into play. In order for you to be eligible for benefits, the disability must be one that will last longer than a year and that leaves you unable to do the work you did before or to adjust to other types of work. Specifically, the SSA will look at your ability to earn money from other employment, as well as the severity of the disability and any specific medical conditions that caused it. Moreover, based on your current occupation, the SSA will make judgment calls about whether different but related jobs could be options for you. The biggest misconception applicants have is that because no job in a given profession is available to them, they are therefore incapable of doing that work, when in fact, their capability can form the basis of the approval or rejection of their disability benefits. It's up to you to establish that you aren't able to work in a given alternative occupation because of your disability.


Source: SSA.

Even if your situation does qualify for consideration of disability benefits, the SSA often rejects Social Security disability claims because the applicant makes simple technical errors, such as omitting required information or providing inaccurate or insufficient explanations of their situation. In particular, it's important to collect as much medical documentation as possible from doctors, hospitals, and other healthcare providers in order to make it easier for the SSA to process your claim efficiently. Work records establishing the scope of your past jobs can also be helpful. Counting on the SSA to request those records adds to delays, and no one has a bigger incentive to make sure that everyone follows through on those requests than you do.

Finally, if the disability-claim process intimidates you, then getting expert assistance can be crucial to understanding your rights. For instance, with a multi-step appeals process, you can avoid the common mistake of giving up too soon if the SSA initially turns down your claim. Sometimes all it takes is tenacity to get a positive result -- even if it takes longer than you'd like.

Becoming disabled is one of the biggest challenges anyone can face, and the financial threats it entails are just one part of that struggle. By being knowledgeable about the Social Security disability claim process, you can improve your chances of getting the benefits you deserve.

How to get even more income during retirement
Social Security plays a key role in your financial security, but it's not the only way to boost your retirement income. In our brand-new free report, our retirement experts give their insight on a simple strategy to take advantage of a little-known IRS rule that can help ensure a more comfortable retirement for you and your family. Click here to get your copy today.

Thursday, January 15, 2015

5 Stocks With Great Sales Growth — HTH INSY CREG TTWO GV

RSS Logo Portfolio Grader Popular Posts: 10 Best “Strong Buy” Stocks — GMK GAME DAL and moreHottest Healthcare Stocks Now – IDIX MNKD ALNY CLDXHottest Technology Stocks Now – SYNA INFY GTAT GME Recent Posts: Hottest Energy Stocks Now – HK FGP LGCY KEG Hottest Healthcare Stocks Now – SHPG NKTR MWIV THC Biggest Movers in Financial Stocks Now – AEL FFG OZRK GHL View All Posts 5 Stocks With Great Sales Growth — HTH INSY CREG TTWO GV

This week, these five stocks have the best ratings in Sales Growth, one of the eight Fundamental Categories on Portfolio Grader.

Hilltop Holdings () provides business and consumer banking services in Texas. .

Insys Therapeutics, Inc. () develops pharmaceutical products that target the unmet needs of cancer patients, with a focus on cancer-supportive care. INSY also gets A’s in Earnings Surprises and Equity. .

China Recycling Energy () engages in the provision of energy savings and recycling products and services. CREG also gets A’s in Earnings Momentum and Cash Flow. .

Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. () publishes, develops and distributes interactive entertainment software and hardware. TTWO gets A’s in Earnings Growth, Earnings Momentum, Analyst Earnings Revisions, Equity and Cash Flow as well. The stock currently has a trailing PE Ratio of 9.40. .

Goldfield Corp. () conducts electrical construction operations, including the placement of fiber optic cable and is also engaged in real estate operations. GV also gets an A in Equity. .

Louis Navellier’s proprietary Portfolio Grader stock ranking system assesses roughly 5,000 companies every week based on a number of fundamental and quantitative measures. Stocks are given a letter grade based on their results — with A being “strong buy,” and F being “strong sell.” Explore the tool here.

Wednesday, January 14, 2015

3 Preferred Stocks Yielding More Than 8%

RSS Logo Lawrence Meyers Popular Posts: 3 Preferred Stocks Yielding More Than 8%3 Covered Calls for a Cool $1,000 in Income3 Cash Cow Stocks to Buy: Timeshare Stocks Recent Posts: 3 Preferred Stocks Yielding More Than 8% Hail This Taxi Dividend Stock for a 6.9% Yield   3 Covered Calls for a Cool $1,000 in Income View All Posts

My always astute, if occasionally irritating, editor Kyle hit me with a question regarding preferred stocks. "What's the case for owning individual preferred stocks over an ETF? Wouldn't it only be to get a higher dividend yield?"

Dividend185 3 Preferred Stocks Yielding More Than 8%It's a good question, but that doesn't make ol' Kyle any less irritating.

There's nothing wrong with owning something like iShares US Preferred Stock (PFF) which offers a dividend yield of 6.6%. It's a little dicey in that it isn't terribly diversified, with 65% of its holdings coming from the financial sector. But then again, most preferred offerings come from financials anyway. The problem with a non-diversified ETF like this is that if the financial sector comes under pressure, the whole ETF may get taken down.

With individual issues, they may or may not get taken down, even if in the same sector. If the individual name has strong underlying fundamentals, it may get spared. On the other hand, if it doesn’t — if it gets caught up in the tsunami — you may find yourself with a generational buying opportunity. If your preferred stock's underlying company is solid and is being shot down because it happens to be in the same sector, there's an excuse to just buy more.

A classic example was the preferred shares of Ashford Hospitality Trust (AHT) during the financial crisis. The D series, for example, fell under $7. An astute investor would have recognized the company was in far better shape than its peers, bought the preferred stocks at that price and seen a huge capital gain appreciation.

Let's move on to today's preferred picks.

Next Page

Preferred Stocks: New York Mortgage Trust (NYMT)

New York Mortgage Trust NYMT 185 3 Preferred Stocks Yielding More Than 8%Dividend Yield: 8.2%

New York Mortgage Trust (NYMT) is a mortgage real estate investment trust, or mREIT, that acquires, invests in, finances and manages mortgage related securities. These mREITs are very much tied to interest rates, so while rates are low, the stocks will do well. NYMT common stock, in fact, yields more than 14%. Yet that's why I would choose the New York Mortgage Trust 7.75% Preferred Series B (NYMTP).

As preferred stocks go, it is less volatile than the underlying and trades about 6% below par, thus giving it a dividend yield of 8.2%.

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Preferred Stocks: Montpelier RE Holdings (MRH)

Montpelier RE Holdings MRH 185 3 Preferred Stocks Yielding More Than 8%Dividend Yield: 8.2%

Montpelier RE Holdings (MRH) has an 8.875% Series A Preferred, currently trading at $27 — about 8.5% above par and callable in two years. Its dividend yield is thus 8.2%.

What I like about this issue is that Montpelier is a specialty insurer, with a large part of its business being re-insurance. That means when an insurance company gets hit with massive claims from things like airline crashes, war, political unrest or space aliens, the insurance company will pay out some big claims, but it will have purchased insurance for its own insurance payouts.

Montpelier is a stable business, with even more stable preferred stock, and it would take a hell of a lot of disasters in a row to put it under.

Next Page

Preferred Stocks: Stag Industrial (STAG)

Stag Industrial 185 3 Preferred Stocks Yielding More Than 8%Dividend Yield: 8.1%

Finally, we have Stag Industrial (STAG) and it's 9% Series A Preferred issue. STAG preferred stock focuses on single-tenant industrial properties. The advantage here is that a well-run REIT like Stag will carefully choose its tenants, selecting companies that are recession-proof, or at least have ample liquidity to pay rents. Occupancy is at 94%, and recent earnings came in with sizable growth across the board. The preferred stock trades almost 10% above par, and thus the dividend yield is 8.1%.

Like what you see? Sign up for our Dividend Insights e-letter and get income investment advice delivered to your inbox every Friday!

Lawrence Meyers owns shares of AHT and AHT Preferred D. He is president of Asymmetrical Media Strategies, a crisis PR firm, and PDL Broker, Inc., which brokers financing, strategic investments and distressed asset purchases between private equity firms and businesses. He also has written two books and blogs about public policy, journalistic integrity, popular culture, and world affairs. Contact him at pdlcapital66@gmail.com and follow his tweets at @ichabodscranium.

New website to link nation's veterans, employers

FORT CAMPBELL, Ky. — First Lady Michelle Obama announced a new online tool Wednesday to help military veterans connect with employers and said some of the nation's biggest companies are expanding the number of veterans they hire.

In a speech that was the kind of pep talk you would expect for new college graduates, the first lady offered a twist — the notion that soldiers who have seen combat in Iraq and Afghanistan probably can handle a job interview at Xerox or UPS.

"Today we need you to start thinking and talking about yourselves for a change," she said. "Don't be afraid to brag a little bit about yourselves."

Obama announced the new private-sector commitments to hire veterans, including Capital One Bank's pledge to hire 55,000 veterans and their spouses, a doubling of UPS' commitment from 25,000 to 50,000 jobs and 10,000 new jobs for veterans at Xerox.

STORY: Recent veterans struggle to find jobs
STORY: States launch programs to help veterans find jobs

"Today, more than 100 companies have come here for one purpose — to hire you," she said at a jobs summit here for transitioning veterans. "We've got your backs."

She urged veterans not to be shy about their experiences and what they can bring to the job.

"If you want a job, you can't be modest about your qualifications," Obama said. "Anyone out there would be lucky to have you on their team."

I guarantee you: They'll be the best employees you have.

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The Veterans Employment Center, available at www.ebenefits.va.gov, allows veterans to see the benefits they've accumulated during their service, post a resume and learn what kinds of jobs they might be able to do based on their skills.

Roughly 700,000 to 800,000 military veterans are in the job market at any given time, said Rosye Cloud, senior adviser for veteran employment with the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. That number includes about 240,000 people who have become veterans since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

! Nationwide, 172,000 post-9/11 veterans were unemployed in March, down from 207,000 the year previous, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That translates to a 6.9% jobless rate, compared with 9.2% a year ago. The overall national rate was 6.7%.

The new web tool is the first of its kind from the federal government, Cloud said.

"As my husband said, 'You fought for us; you shouldn't have to fight for a job,' " the first lady said.

Earlier at the summit, Maj. Gen. James C. McConville said the Army has a responsibility to make sure its veterans can move smoothly into civilian life with good jobs.

Michelle Obama has her photo made with a soldier after speaking April 23, 2014, at veterans job summit at Fort Campbell, Ky.(Photo: Michael Clevenger, The (Louisville, Ky.) Courier-Journal)

The commanding general of the 101st Airborne Division at Fort Campbell said his father, also a veteran, was able to "send all his kids to college and live the American dream" thanks to the G.I. Bill and steady employment.

"And that's what we owe our veterans today," McConville said.

Sgt. Clay Loymendy, 24, of Riverside, Calif., has been stationed at Fort Campbell for more than two years. He said he'll probably go to a technical school soon so he can start working in wind turbine production or as a cell tower technician.

Brig. Gen. David K. MacEwen, adjutant general of the Army, said employers should know that veterans are fit and drug free and will show up to work on time.

"I guarantee you: They'll be the best employees you have," MacEwen said.

Speakers at the forum Wednesday spoke of a period of major changes for soldiers, veterans, their families and the communities they! live in ! as the war winds down and the number of troops shrinks.

Veterans sometimes have to change their mindset when they leave the battlefield for the job market, MacEwen said.

Soldiers are accustomed to talking in terms of "we" and what their team has accomplished, but they have to make a transition to "I" and individual achievements, he said.

Medal of Honor recipient Dakota Meyer speaks at the Ft. Campbell Veterans Jobs Summit and Career Forum. April 23, 2014(Photo: Michael Clevenger, The (Louisville, Ky.) Courier-Journal)

Eric Eversole, executive director of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation's Hiring Our Heroes program, said too many veterans don't know how to make a "30-second elevator pitch" about themselves and their skills.

Veterans need to put their military service front and center on their resumes, he said.

Others at the summit included Marine Sgt. Dakota Meyer. Meyer, a Medal of Honor recipient for bravery in saving members of his team in Afghanistan in 2009, said young veterans of the post-9/11 wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have no good reason to be unemployed.

Meyer received a standing ovation from the 101st Airborne Division. But speaking from personal experience, he said not a lot of job descriptions ask for former snipers.

Meyer, who is working with the Chamber of Commerce Foundation in its outreach to veterans, said the government's launch of its integrated jobs website will help bridge that gap, translating military skills to civilian terms.

He said less than 1% of this generation has carried the burden of America's longest war. That means the civilian and military worlds have a difficult time understanding each other.

"It's something as small as in the! military! we call it a mission and in the corporate world they call it a project," he said.

Contributing: Philip Grey, The (Clarksville, Tenn.) Leaf-Chronicle; Duane Gang, The Tennessean; and The Associated Press

Fort Campbell soldiers listen to panels discussing jobs after the military at an April 23, 2014, career forum.(Photo: Michael Clevenger, The (Louisville, Ky.) Courier-Journal)

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Men's Wearhouse Bid Now Suits Jos. A. Bank Just Fine

Men's Wearhouse Buying Jos. A. Bank for $1.8 Billion Craig Warga/Bloomberg via Getty Images NEW YORK -- Looks like the best suitor won. After an extended chase that included overtures on both sides, Men's Wearhouse and Jos. A. Bank will combine to create the nation's fourth largest seller of menswear. Men's Wearhouse (MW) said Tuesday that it's buying its rival Jos. A. Bank Clothiers (JOSB) for $1.8 billion. The company will pay $65 a share, a 5 percent premium to Jos. A. Bank's most recent closing price. As part of the deal, Jos. A. Bank also said it's terminating its deal to acquire the parent company of Eddie Bauer, which sells rugged outerwear. Shares of both companies rose on the news: Men's Wearhouse's shares were up nearly 5 percent to $57.13, while shares of Jos. A. Bank increased nearly 4 percent to $64.22. The acquisition comes after months of the two chains publicly fighting over who would acquire whom. Industry watchers had speculated that a merger was inevitable given the challenges the companies face in the increasingly competitive menswear landscape. With more than 1,700 U.S. stores and $3.5 billion in annual sales, the combined company's reach in men's clothing will fall behind only Macy's (M), Kohl's (KSS) and J.C. Penney (JCP). "Together, Men's Wearhouse and Jos. A. Bank will have increased scale and breadth," Doug Ewert, president and CEO of Men's Wearhouse, said in a statement. Jos. A. Bank made the first move in October when it offered to buy its larger rival for $2.3 billion, just a few months after Men's Wearhouse ousted its founder and chairman. Men's Wearhouse shot down that offer, and turned the tables, offering to buy its rival for $1.54 billion. But after Jos. A. Bank turned down that bid, Men's Wearhouse increased its offer to $1.6 billion, and then again to $1.78 billion. In the middle of the back-and forth, Jos. A. Bank said last month that it was buying the parent of Eddie Bauer, but left the door open for a deal with Men's Wearhouse. At the time, it said if it received a superior acquisition offer, it would pay a termination fee to end the Eddie Bauer deal. By early March, Men's Wearhouse had an offer of $63.50 per share on the table but said it may raise the bid to $65 per share if some conditions were met. Despite, the rough courting period, both companies say they expect a smooth integration. In a joint press release, they said shareholders of both companies will benefit from about $100 million to $150 million in savings realized over three years as it streamlines its duplicative corporate function and improves its sourcing and merchandising. A spokesman for Men's Wearhouse declined to comment on any layoffs or comment on management changes beyond what the release said: "management will consist of the most qualified individuals from both organizations. " "Our board has been rigorously focused on pursuing a path for our shareholders that maximizes value created," said Robert N. Wildrick, chairman of Jos. A. Bank's board. "The transaction we are announcing today clearly reflects the success of our efforts." Analysts say there's a bright future for the combined company. The suit business, which generated $2.3 billion in revenue last year, has been relatively healthy. The business has been up 4 percent over the past three years, after being flat or down since the recession, according to market research firm NPD Group. That has been fueled by tight-fitting suits that have attracted young males. The companies also have complementary businesses. Men's Wearhouse, which sells men's sportswear and suits through its 1,200 stores at its Men's Wearhouse, Moores and K&G chains, caters to young male customers looking for their first suit. Meanwhile Jos. A. Banks focuses on a more established clientele that's looking for a good deal at its 623 stores with promotions like "buy one suit or sport coat and get three free." But the industry is still competitive, and to grab men's shopping dollars, analysts say both chains have had to compete with fierce promotions. Stifel Nicholaus analyst Richard Jaffe said that the acquisition means that both companies can lower costs, whether it's buying shopping bags or buying TV ads. He also noted each could borrow their expertise. He could see Jos. A. Bank selling tuxedos, for instance, or Men's Wearhouse improving on its sportswear offerings. "There are real cost savings and opportunities to turn around the business," he said.

Monday, January 12, 2015

Witness: Tight lips on SAC Capital stock sale

NEW YORK — Hedge fund SAC Capital's 2008 sale of a large investment in two pharmacy firms was executed with unusually tight security, testimony at the insider trading trial of its former portfolio manager Mathew Martoma showed Wednesday.

The secrecy was so tight that Chandler Bocklage, a top trading assistant to hedge fund chief Steven Cohen, testified he didn't learn about the sale until afterward. He said he could not recall any equivalent experience during his 12 years at the hedge fund.

Bocklage's testimony focused on transactions in which SAC Capital dumped a roughly $700 million stake in shares of Elan and Wyeth, companies that were developing an experimental drug intended to treat Alzheimer's disease. SAC Capital sold the shares shortly before the pharma firms reported disappointing results in a clinical trial of the drug, an announcement that sent the stock prices sharply lower.

Martoma is on trial in Manhattan federal court based on allegations he triggered the sale based on illegal inside information he received from two doctors who gave him details of the drug trial results before the data was publicly disclosed. Both doctors testified for the government as prosecution witnesses.

Bocklage testified he initially thought SAC Capital must have "lost a lot of money" when the Elan and Wyeth stock nosedived. He later learned the hedge fund had unloaded the shares before the drop, but testified he was never told why.

Federal prosecutors allege that the hedge fund reaped approximately $276 million in gains and avoided losses by selling the shares before the disappointing announcement. SAC Capital increased its gain on the transactions by placing bearish investment bets that shares of the two pharma firms would drop, prosecutors charge.

Wednesday's testimony by Bocklage and a second SAC Capital trader appeared to show that some financial information was carefully compartmentalized at the hedge fund. It also provided a glimpse at operations inside the Greenwich, Con! n.-based company.

Bocklage testified that he manned a trading post to Cohen's right and helped him keep up to date on market developments. Jeffrey Miller, an SAC Capital execution trader, testified that he took trading instructions from Cohen via an electronic headset, confirmed the orders and then executed the trades.

"I personally think Steve is the greatest trader of all time," said Bocklage, referring to Cohen's successful investment record and SAC Capital's growth into one of the financial industry's largest hedge funds.

However, the fund is now terminating its investments for outsiders after pleading guilty in November and agreeing to pay a record $1.8 billion to settle insider trading allegations. Cohen has not been charged. But Manhattan U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara has said his investigation is continuing.

Pizza Hut Goes Old School for Its Next Pie Innovations

This handout photo provided by Pizza Hut,  shows a hand-tossed pizza.  Pizza Hut announced Monday, Jan. 13, 2014, it plans to start offering pizza by the slice for the first time in two test locations this week, as the chain looks to keep pace with trendy competitors offering quick, made-to-order pies. (AP Photo/Pizza Hut)AP It's OK to say that Pizza Hut is full of hot air when it comes to its latest marketing move. It almost certainly won't mind. Yum! Brands' (YUM) iconic Pizza Hut introduced a new crust for its hand-tossed pizzas on Thursday. Instead of stuffing crusts with various types of cheese or even pepperoni as it has done in the past, Pizza Hut is promoting the fact that its new hand-tossed pizzas now feature a more airy texture. Pumping more air into the dough is supposed to give the pies less of a cookie-cutter appearance, an unusual choice among chains that sell themselves on their consistency. Every snowflake is unique, but every chain order is supposed to be uniform across the various locations. It's what customers expect. However, just as the term "hand-tossed" conveys a personal touch, having a few more air pockets in the pizzas should generate some retro charm akin to an indie pizzeria. So Pizza Hut is proud of the "noticeable imperfections" of the new pies. It's not that big of a gamble. The rest of Pizza Hut's menu options will remain the same. If this move doesn't "pan" out, it can be quickly replaced with the next evolutionary step of crust stuffing in the pizza giant's playbook. Pizza Hut doesn't stand still, even if it's odd to find it stuffing its pies with air. Pizza Hut is Bigger Than You Think There are more than 14,000 Pizza Hut locations across 100 different countries, making the chain a major component of the Yum! Brands family that also includes Taco Bell and KFC. It could also use a boost. Comparable-store sales at domestic Pizza Hut locations slipped 1 percent in Yum! Brands' latest quarter. These are competitive times, and for Pizza Hut, the challenge now is about more than beefing up its delivery business to compete with Papa John's (PZZA) and Domino's (DPZ), which seem to always have some ridiculous price promotion going on. (This is a business that has become cutthroat enough that Pizza Hut even feels the need to explicitly offer full refunds on the new air-blown pies if customers aren't satisfied.) No, the potentially even bigger threat comes from the fast-casual pizza movement. Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) and Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) have recently invested in the niche, and Pizza Hut doesn't want to be left out in the cold. Slicing a New Path It's not just air-puffed hand-tossed pizzas on the menu. Pizza Hut turned heads on Tuesday by introducing two stores that will specialize in selling pizzas by the slice, like New York style pizzerias (or Sbarro), to be eaten there or on the go. Pizza Hut has offered small personal pan pizzas for ages, but selling slices gives the company a way to cash in on the fast casual trend of customers who want to enjoy a quick meal without having to flag down a server to pay the check. The two new concept stores will still offer the Pizza Hut staples, but the real draw will be the pizza "bar" that quickly dispenses slices as they're ordered. Competitive moves: We'll see if they make the dough rise.

Saturday, January 10, 2015

The Fed: More of the Same

Print FriendlyAs the head of an independent agency subject to little Congressional or executive intervention, the chairperson of the US Federal Reserve wields an enormous amount of power over America’s economy.

By and large, the only real check on a Fed chairperson’s authority is the requirement that policy be set through the consensus of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Historically, though, the seven members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors fall in line with the chairperson, with the only real dissent coming from the five Federal Reserve Bank presidents who also have votes on the FOMC. So what a Fed chair wants, a Fed chair usually gets.

That makes it worth noting that Janet Yellen, the current number two at the Fed and the nominee to replace Ben Bernanke when his term expires on January 31, veritably sailed through her nomination hearing before the Senate banking committee yesterday.

Some lawmakers on the committee aggressively questioned Yellen on what the Fed has done so far to ensure the stability of the nation’s banking sector and how the Fed is progressing with writing the new rules mandated by the Dodd-Frank financial reform law. However, there was none of the acrimony that so often marks confirmation battles.

Given the relative conviviality of the hearing, the committee is expected to vote to send Yellen’s nomination to the full Senate sometime next week despite the fact that Senator David Vitter (R-LA) has said that he will oppose her confirmation. And with the Senate controlled by the Democrats, several of whom signed a letter recommending her nomination to President Obama, the odds are that we’ll have a new Fed chairperson sometime next month.

That’s important to our inflation outlook. While she walked a fine line pointing out that inflationary danger lurked no matter what action the Fed took, Yellen also stressed that removing the suppo! rt of quantitative easing (QE) too soon would be devastating to the economy. She essentially hewed to the Bernanke line, saying that she would only consider ending QE once the unemployment rate fell below 7 percent.

She also asserted that she saw no evidence of an asset bubble forming as a result of QE—many believe that the rapid rise we’ve seen in equity valuations are largely a result of QE. Consequently, she shows no inclination to change the current course of monetary policy.

There’s some inflation in the economy today and by our measures it is well above the government reported 1.2 percent. We’re not staring hyperinflation in the face any time soon, but I do believe there’s a potentially massive inflationary hangover waiting for us down the road.

My greatest concern at this point isn’t just the extremely unconventional nature of the Fed’s economic intervention; it’s that our central bank isn’t the only one in the world going down this primrose path.

Two of the world’s other largest economies are also stimulating at a furious pace. The Bank of Japan is pushing trillions of yen into that nation’s economy and the European Central Bank’s recent rate cut to 0.25 percent leaves the euro zone flirting with a zero interest rate policy. There’s a lot more money than just the Fed’s $85 billion in monthly asset purchases flowing into the global economy.

This much monetary support pumping through the global economy is entirely unprecedented, so it’s tough to believe that central bankers around the world actually have a handle on the potential consequences three to five years from now. It appears that inflation is simply being baked into the cake we’ve been eating for four years.

I’m not so much bothered by the fact that Yellen looks to be coasting into the big chair at the head of the table—she had a ringside seat for most of the global financial crisis—but! by her a! pparent lack of a stimulus exit plan. When pressed on how she would identify asset bubbles or inflation forming, her response was basically that she would know it when she saw it.

The upshot for investors: Yellen’s confirmation, with her prescription for more of the same, means that we should continue to watch for signs of building inflation. When governments print more money, it reduces its value and causes prices to rise as producers need to get more for their product. And in today’s interconnected society, when one central bank prints money it impacts everyone. One need only look to the huge run up in many emerging market stocks to see the effect.

Why CoreLogic Shares Climbed Higher

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX  ) are up more than 15% today after the company came through with a strong earnings report.

So what: The property-information aggregator and analytics company reported third-quarter revenue of $405.5 million, which beat the Street's $398.5 million consensus. Its $0.48 in adjusted earnings also came in ahead of Wall Street's $0.42 consensus. However, CoreLogic's full-year guidance of $1.70-$1.80 in earnings per share is a bit disappointing, as analysts had sought $1.80 in EPS.

Now what: CoreLogic is reaching for all-time highs today after its earnings report. However, its valuation isn't out of line with historical norms, and the company appears to be headed in the right direction. CoreLogic has a history of wild swings in earnings, and its full-year estimate is at the high end of this roller-coaster ride. It might be worth a closer look, but I'd tread cautiously after today's big pop.

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Friday, January 9, 2015

SEC eyes ‘information overload’ in filings

Publicly traded U.S. firms could soon face less-inclusive public disclosure requirements, a top securities regulator signaled Tuesday.

The number and type of issues companies must disclose has grown "more and more detailed," Securities and Exchange Commission Chairwoman Mary Jo White said in a speech to the National Association of Corporate Directors. She questioned whether investors need or are well-served by all of that information.

"When disclosure gets to be 'too much' or strays from its core purpose, it could lead to what some have called 'information overload' — a phenomenon in which ever-increasing amounts of disclosure make it difficult for an investor to wade through the volume of information she receives to ferret out the information that is most relevant."

The SEC's staff is studying the disclosure issue in compliance with a mandate under the 2012 federal Jumpstart Our Business Startups Act. A recommendation is expected soon, White said.

A 1976 U.S. Supreme Court decision requires U.S. publicly traded companies to disclose "material" information — which the ruling defined as matters where "there is a substantial likelihood that a reasonable shareholder would consider it important in deciding how to vote."

White used her appearance at the Maryland conference to question whether firms could meet the court mandate without continuing to disclose information that's now easily available via the Internet, such as historical share-closing prices, share dilution data and the ratio of earnings to fixed charges.

She also questioned whether there's a need for duplicate disclosures, noting that many companies report information about significant pending lawsuits under the "Legal Proceedings' portion of SEC filings, and again under "Risk Factors."

"Accountants say that lawyers insist on the repetition and the lawyers blame the accountants," said White. "Rather than focus on who may be perpetuating this, we should simply figure out what investors want and whethe! r such repetition is really such a burden for companies."

As investors come to expect nearly-instantaneous information on their smartphones and computers, White also said the SEC should consider whether the agency's reporting deadlines should be shorter, and examine whether such a change would "impose an undue burden" on companies.

"Clearly, there is no one system of disclosure that will satisfy everyone," said White. "Too much information for some is not enough for others. Too little for some may be too much for others. And what some investors might want may not be what reasonable investors need."

Thursday, January 8, 2015

New Data on Biogen's Eloctate - Analyst Blog

Biogen Idec (BIIB) and Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB recently presented new data on their hemophilia A candidate, Eloctate, at the XXIV International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis (ISTH) Congress.

Data presented by Biogen and Swedish Orphan Biovitrum supported Eloctate's safety and efficacy profile.

According to the new data, a single injection of Eloctate helped control more than 87% of bleeds while more than 97% of bleeds could be controlled by two or fewer injections. Moreover, bleeding during and after 9 major surgeries were controlled by Eloctate in 9 patients with hemophilia A.

Biogen also presented data on Eloctate from a population pharmacokinetics (popPK) model as well as an evaluation based on the usage of two investigational hemostasis assays.

We note that Biogen and Swedish Orphan Biovitrum had initially presented positive top-line results on Eloctate from the global, multi-center, phase III A-LONG study last year. About 98% of bleeding episodes were controlled with one or two injections of Eloctate. Eloctate was found to be generally well-tolerated.

Eloctate is currently under US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) review – a response regarding its approval status should be out early next year.

The company's hemophilia B candidate, Alprolix, is also under FDA review with a response expected by year end.

A convenient dosing schedule (supported by a longer duration of action and a suitable safety profile) could help Alprolix and Eloctate capture share from existing products in the hemophilia market.

Biogen currently carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). Avonex and Tysabri should continue contributing significantly to sales. Tecfidera should help drive long-term growth. We are also encouraged by Biogen's progress with its hemophilia candidates.

A few other companies that look equally well-positioned are Aeterna Zentaris (AEZS), Cytori Therapeutics, Inc. (CYTX) and Protalix BioTherapeutics, Inc. (PLX). All three! are Zacks Rank #1 stocks.

Tuesday, January 6, 2015

Why Avista's Earnings May Not Be So Hot

Although business headlines still tout earnings numbers, many investors have moved past net earnings as a measure of a company's economic output. That's because earnings are very often less trustworthy than cash flow, since earnings are more open to manipulation based on dubious judgment calls.

Earnings' unreliability is one of the reasons Foolish investors often flip straight past the income statement to check the cash flow statement. In general, by taking a close look at the cash moving in and out of the business, you can better understand whether the last batch of earnings brought money into the company, or merely disguised a cash gusher with a pretty headline.

Calling all cash flows
When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on Avista (NYSE: AVA  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. FCF = free cash flow. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Over the past 12 months, Avista generated $40.6 million cash while it booked net income of $78.2 million. That means it turned 2.6% of its revenue into FCF. That doesn't sound so great. FCF is less than net income. Ideally, we'd like to see the opposite.

All cash is not equal
Unfortunately, the cash flow statement isn't immune from nonsense, either. That's why it pays to take a close look at the components of cash flow from operations, to make sure that the cash flows are of high quality. What does that mean? To me, it means they need to be real and replicable in the upcoming quarters, rather than being offset by continual cash outflows that don't appear on the income statement (such as major capital expenditures).

For instance, cash flow based on cash net income and adjustments for non-cash income-statement expenses (like depreciation) is generally favorable. An increase in cash flow based on stiffing your suppliers (by increasing accounts payable for the short term) or shortchanging Uncle Sam on taxes will come back to bite investors later. The same goes for decreasing accounts receivable; this is good to see, but it's ordinary in recessionary times, and you can only increase collections so much. Finally, adding stock-based compensation expense back to cash flows is questionable when a company hands out a lot of equity to employees and uses cash in later periods to buy back those shares.

So how does the cash flow at Avista look? Take a peek at the chart below, which flags questionable cash flow sources with a red bar.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. TTM = trailing 12 months.

When I say "questionable cash flow sources," I mean items such as changes in taxes payable, tax benefits from stock options, and asset sales, among others. That's not to say that companies booking these as sources of cash flow are weak, or are engaging in any sort of wrongdoing, or that everything that comes up questionable in my graph is automatically bad news. But whenever a company is getting more than, say, 10% of its cash from operations from these dubious sources, investors ought to make sure to refer to the filings and dig in.

With questionable cash flows amounting to only 9.0% of operating cash flow, Avista's cash flows look clean. Within the questionable cash flow figure plotted in the TTM period above, other operating activities (which can include deferred income taxes, pension charges, and other one-off items) provided the biggest boost, at 6.0% of cash flow from operations. Overall, the biggest drag on FCF came from capital expenditures, which consumed 87.2% of cash from operations.

A Foolish final thought
Most investors don't keep tabs on their companies' cash flow. I think that's a mistake. If you take the time to read past the headlines and crack a filing now and then, you're in a much better position to spot potential trouble early. Better yet, you'll improve your odds of finding the underappreciated home-run stocks that provide the market's best returns.

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We can help you keep tabs on your companies with My Watchlist, our free, personalized stock tracking service.

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Billionaires Unloaded These 3 Stocks

Want to know what billionaires are doing with their money these days? We have the numbers, and the results may surprise you.

The sell-off
S&P Capital IQ recently released its Hedge Fund Tracker, showing what stocks the 10 largest pure-play hedge funds bought and sold in the third quarter. Of the stocks the hedge funds sold completely -- meaning they cashed out their entire position -- the three largest were all household names:

Company

Sold Out Amount (Millions)

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  )

$771

Time Warner   (NYSE: TWX  )

$609

Twenty-First Century Fox (NASDAQ: FOXA  )

$555

Source: S&P Capital IQ Hedge Fund Tracker.

Cable chaos
The third quarter -- which spans from the beginning of July to the end of September -- was full of news on the cable front, the biggest of which was the efforts of Fox to acquire rival Time Warner.

On July 16 it was announced that Rupert Murdoch and Fox made an $80 billion bid -- roughly $85 a share -- for Time Warner, an offer that Time Warner executives subsequently refused. Time Warner was reported as wanting a higher price. If it were to even consider the proposed takeover, reports said the price would have to be nearer to $100 a share, or nearly $95 billion.

Source: The Motley Fool.

But it seemed Murdoch would remain undeterred. As Reuters reported, "Murdoch and his advisors are unlikely to abandon his ambition to put Time Warner in his empire so easily, one of the people said, pointing out that he has the "disciplined determination" to get a deal done."

However, that outlook changed abruptly. Exactly 20 days after the news of the possible acquisition broke, Fox withdrew its offer entirely. As The Wall Street Journal reported when the news broke, "21st Century Fox abruptly abandoned its takeover pursuit of Time Warner, citing both Time Warner's unwillingness to 'engage with us' and a sharp drop in Fox's stock price, which made a deal 'unattractive to Fox shareholders.'"

Those three weeks were a wild ride for investors of each company:

FOXA Chart

So with the craziness that marked the cable and entertainment industry in the third quarter, it should come as no surprise that Viking Global Investors sold off its stake in Time Warner and Lone Pine Capital shelved its holdings of Fox.

iLove you not
While the unloading of Time Warner and Fox is understandable, why Viking Global Investors and Renaissance Technologies chose to completely exit their positions in Apple is a bit less clear.

In the third quarter, Apple once more posted strong results, delivering 20% growth in earnings per share, and it delivered record revenue for the quarter ending June 28.

"Our record June quarter revenue was fueled by strong sales of iPhone and Mac and the continued growth of revenue from the Apple ecosystem, driving our highest EPS growth rate in seven quarters," Apple CEO Tim Cook said in the earnings announcement. "We are incredibly excited about the upcoming releases of iOS 8 and OS X Yosemite, as well as other new products and services that we can't wait to introduce."

Source: The Motley Fool.

There was also the reality in the third quarter Apple both announced and launched the much-awaited iPhone 6 and 6 Plus models. The company revealed on Sept. 22 that in the first weekend alone, more than 10 million phones were sold, which exceeded expectations and caused Cook to say it was the company's "best launch ever, shattering all previous sell-through records by a large margin."

In short, the news was nothing but good for Apple, and from September 2013 to September 2014, its total return was greater than 50%.

So one simply has to wonder whether the hedge funds decided to cash in on their gains and explore other options. But considering since the end of September Apple's stock has risen by 9% versus just a 2% gain on the S&P 500, one also has to wonder whether they regret making such a move.

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Monday, January 5, 2015

I Ate Thanksgiving Dinner With My Identity Thief for 19 Years

Courtesy of Axton Betz-Hamilton Nineteen a minute: That's how quickly people become identity theft victims in the U.S. Estimates vary, but somewhere between 10 and 16 million Americans are defrauded each year in this way.

Thanksgiving can be an awkward time of year for some victims, since family members account for more than 30 percent of the identity thieves. Axton Betz-Hamilton knows this firsthand. Raised in a middle-class home -- her mother Pamela was a tax preparer, her dad a department manager for a grocery store -- her identity theft story is both a family affair and exponentially stranger than fiction. "We lived on hobby farms -- one in Portland, Indiana, and then another in Redkey," Betz-Hamilton told me. Thanksgivings were with family. Her paternal grandfather moved in during the '90s. (He had been a welder at a tractor factory.) Together, they were a small family unit that looked like many others, though in reality they were ensnared in a mind-boggling circle of financial fraud. "Nineteen Thanksgivings came and went, and [my mother] cooked those dinners for us -- me and dad and my grandfather after he moved in in 1995. We were getting robbed by the hand that fed us the entire time," she said. The Damage Betz-Hamilton's identity theft story started in 1993. The charges on credit cards that were acquired using her Social Security number amounted to about $4,000, but the damage rippled out, impacting every aspect of her financial life. Betz-Hamilton first discovered that she had been victimized when, as a 19-year-old college student, she was moving off-campus, and the utility company asked for a $100 deposit. The reason: bad credit.

Sunday, January 4, 2015

3 Under-$10 Stocks Triggering Breakout Trades

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- At Stockpickr, we track daily portfolios of stocks that are the biggest percentage gainers and the biggest percentage losers.

Must Read: Sell These 5 Toxic Stocks Before the Next Drop

Stocks that are making large moves like these are favorites among short-term traders because they can jump into these names and try to capture some of that massive volatility. Stocks that are making big-percentage moves either up or down are usually in play because their sector is becoming attractive or they have a major fundamental catalyst such as a recent earnings release. Sometimes stocks making big moves have been hit with an analyst upgrade or an analyst downgrade.

Regardless of the reason behind it, when a stock makes a large-percentage move, it is often just the start of a new major trend -- a trend that can lead to huge profits. If you time your trade correctly, combining technical indicators with fundamental trends, discipline and sound money management, you will be well on your way to investment success.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at a several stocks under $10 that are making large moves to the upside.

Must Read: How to Trade the Market's Most-Active Stocks

Gordmans Stores

Gordmans Stores (GMAN) operates department stores under the Gordmans name in the U.S. Its merchandise selection includes a range of apparel, footwear and home fashions products, as well as accessories. This stock closed up 1.7% to $3.46 a share in Thursday's trading session.

Thursday's Range: $3.33-$3.49

52-Week Range: $3.06-$11.55

Thursday's Volume: 68,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 136,689

From a technical perspective, GMAN jumped modestly higher here right above some near-term support at $ 3.29 with lighter-than-average volume. This stock has been downtrending badly over the last four months, with shares moving sharply lower from its high of $5.46 to its recent low of $3.29. During that downtrend, shares of GMAN have been consistently making lower highs and lower lows, which is bearish technical price action. That said, shares of GMAN showed some relative strength on Thursday as the market plunged, and it's now starting to push within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if GMAN manages to take out its 50-day moving average of $3.52 to some more near-term overhead resistance at $3.78 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in GMAN as long as it's trending above some near-term support at $3.29 or just below $3.25 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 136,689 shares. If that breakout develops soon, then GMAN will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $4 to $4.50.

Must Read: 5 Stocks Insiders Love Right Now

Good Times Restaurants

Good Times Restaurants (GTIM), through its subsidiaries, develops, owns, operates and franchises hamburger-oriented drive-through restaurants under the Good Times Burgers & Frozen Custard name in Colorado. This stock closed up 1.1% to $5.30 in Thursday's trading session.

Thursday's Range: $5.00-$5.40

52-Week Range: $2.06-$5.49

Thursday's Volume: 265,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 64,686

From a technical perspective, GTIM trended modestly higher here right off some near-term support at $5 and above more support at $4.75 with above-average volume. This stock has been uptrending strong over the last two months, with shares moving higher from its low of $2.92 to its recent high of $5.49. During that uptrend, shares of GTIM have been making mostly higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. This spike higher on Thursday is quickly pushing shares of GTIM within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if GTIM manages to take out its 52-week high of $5.49 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in GTIM as long as it's trending above some key near-term support levels at $5 or at $4.75 and then once it sustains a move or close above $5.49 with volume that hits near or above 64,686 shares. If that breakout kicks off soon, then GTIM will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $6 to $6.50, or even $7.

Must Read: 5 Hated Earnings Stocks You Should Love

Synacor

Synacor (SYNC) provides startpages and homescreens, TV Everywhere solutions, Identity Management services and various cloud-based services across a range of devices for cable, satellite, telecom and consumer electronics companies in the U.S., and the U.K. This stock closed up 3.2% to $1.92 in Thursday's trading session.

Thursday's Range: $1.86-$1.93

52-Week Range: $1.80-$2.88

Thursday's Volume: 132,556

Three-Month Average Volume: 75,786

From a technical perspective, SYNC ripped higher here right above its new 52-week low of $1.80 with above-average volume. This notable move higher on Thursday showed that shares of SYNC had some relative strength when compared to the overall weakness in the markets. This could mean that demand is strong for shares of SYNC here since the sellers lost control when they had the wind at their backs with the action in the overall markets. Shares of SYNC are now starting to trend within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if SYNC manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance levels at $ 1.95 to $2.02 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in SYNC as long as it's trending above Thursday's intraday low of $1.86 or above its 52-week low of $1.80 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 132,556 shares. If that breakout develops soon, then SYNC will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $2.10 to its 50-day moving average of $2.13. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give SYNC a chance to tag $2.30 to its 200-day moving average of $2.39.

Must Read: Must-See Charts: 5 Big Stocks to Sidestep the Selloff

To see more stocks that are making notable moves higher, check out the Stocks Under $10 Moving Higher portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.


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At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com.

You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.