Saturday, February 28, 2015

Google launches prepaid card

google wallet card

Google's new prepaid card will be funded by Google Wallet accounts.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) Google has entered the prepaid debit card fray.

The tech giant announced the launch of a physical prepaid card on Wednesday. The new Google Wallet Card will be tied to a customer's Google Wallet account and can be used to make purchases and withdraw money from ATMs.

Google Wallet, which has been around since 2011, is a virtual wallet that is funded by transfers from other Google Wallet users or money transferred from other bank and credit card accounts. You can then use that balance to pay with a mobile phone at certain retailers.

The venture hasn't really taken off, however -- iPhones haven't adopted the technology necessary to use the in-store payment feature, and many retailers don't have the appropriate point-of-sale equipment to process the transactions.

Schmidt on the Google-Samsung romance   Schmidt on the Google-Samsung romance

But with the launch of this new prepaid card, a phone is no longer necessary to pay in stores -- customers can simply swipe their card the old-fashioned way instead.

The Google Wallet Card can be used at all locations where MasterCard is accepted, and it doesn't come with any fees. It doesn't even charge you to withdraw cash at the ATM (though some ATMs will charge you a separate fee).

The card can be requested through the Google Wallet Android app or online.

Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) is just the latest in a long line of companies, organizations and celebrities to jump on the prepaid card bandwagon. Last month, Occupy Wall Street debuted the Occupy Card. Walgreens, Justin Bieber and Suze Orman are among the many other newcomers to the business. To top of page

Friday, February 27, 2015

Bitcoin makes pitch for ‘safe and sane’ regulation

Bitcoin, the virtual currency that fuels transactions on Internet black markets such as Silk Road and Black Market Reloaded, will make its case to Congress on Monday that such currency has potential to open the digital economy to poor societies around the world.

Federal law enforcement agents will testify that criminals can use Bitcoin to launder money.

Last month, federal agents shut down Silk Road, a black market that sold illegal goods such as heroin and forged documents, and arrested its alleged operator, Ross Ulbricht. The site operated on an underground network known as Tor and transacted its sales in bitcoin.

Patrick Murck, general counsel for the Bitcoin Foundation, will appear before the Senate Homeland Security Committee for the first congressional hearing on virtual currency. Murck, in prepared testimony, said he hoped Congress would "chart a safe and sane regulatory course" without tamping down the economic and societal potential for the digital economy and Bitcoin.

Bitcoin can help people avoid official corruption and punitive taxes and spend money on unpopular causes without risking interference from government, Murck said. Fees are generally lower than traditional banking, he said.

"Bitcoin can facilitate private and anonymous transactions, which are resistant to oversight and control," Murck's testimony says. "This by no means implies that using Bitcoin can or should provide anyone immunity from the law."

The committee has asked Murck and representatives of the Justice Department, Homeland Security and the International Centre for Missing & Exploited Children to discuss the risks and potential of digital cash that can be transferred anonymously and without government regulation.

Bitcoin, invented in 2008 as a person-to-person digital currency that can be traded without banks or a central monetary authority, has grown exponentially as Internet businesses, legal and illegal, adopt it as a payment method. Bitcoin can be exchanged for standard cur! rency, such as dollars, euros or yen, but the exchange rate varies wildly. One Bitcoin has sold for more than $400.

In March, the Treasury Department's Financial Crime Enforcement Network (FinCen) said Bitcoin exchanges that allow users to convert their virtual currency to dollars must register with the government and abide by anti-money-laundering regulations. European regulators issued similar requirements in July.

To pay with Bitcoin, users create a "wallet" using Bitcoin software that is identified with a 33-digit code. That code links to a private one known only to the owner. The wallet's owner uses the private key to "sign" transactions, which is then validated by the computer. Every transaction is listed in a public ledger, called the "block chain," which prevents spending Bitcoin twice.

Responsible virtual currency providers should implement the Treasury Department's anti-money laundering procedures and report suspicious transactions, Jennifer Shasky Calvery, director of FinCen, said in written testimony.

"Legitimate financial institutions, including virtual currency providers, do not go into business with the aim of laundering money on behalf of criminals," she said. "Any financial institution could be exploited for money laundering purposes. What is important is for institutions to put controls in place to deal with those money laundering threats."

The Department of Homeland Security is carefully watching the development of virtual currencies, Brian de Vallance, acting assistant secretary for legislative affairs wrote in a letter to the committee.

Anonymity in cyberspace creates "a unique opportunity for criminal organizations to launder huge sum of money undetected," he wrote.

Criminals have migrated to Tor to hide their identities and use virtual currency to hide their transactions, said Ernie Allen, CEO of the International Centre for Missing & Exploited Children, in prepared testimony submitted to the committee.

In August, police arreste! d the own! er and operator of Freedom Hosting, which maintained "deep Web" servers that hosted child porn sites, including Lolita City and Pedo Empire, that accepted payment in Bitcoin. The FBI called Freedom Hosting "the largest facilitator of child pornography on the planet," Allen said.

He said he can see the virtues of a digital economy and digital currency as a way to get capital to people without access to banks, credit cards and mainstream financial institutions, but he also sees it as a way for criminals to hide the profits of their crimes. Police often follow the money to find the operators of child pornography and sex trafficking websites, Allen said. The center is encouraging countries to regulate virtual currency at the point where it is traded for standard currency.

"The attractiveness of Tor and Bitcoin for child pornography is based upon a perception of anonymity," Allen said. "If the perception of anonymity diminishes, we believe the criminal use will diminish with it."

Monday, February 16, 2015

Wal-Mart promoting 25,000 employees

NEW YORK — Wal-Mart Stores, faced with criticism about worker pay, is making public a round of promotions of about 25,000 U.S. store employees to help send a message that it offers economic security and opportunity.

The world's largest retailer and the nation's largest private employer kicked off the on-the-spot surprise promotions at ceremonies Tuesday in its Secaucus, N.J., store and about 15 other markets including Atlanta and Denver. It's dispatching top executives to stores nationwide for similar events for the rest of its fiscal year, which ends in late January.

The mostly hourly workers will be promoted to different jobs — some to store management positions — and will receive higher pay and increased responsibility.

"It's good a time as any to tell our story," said Bill Simon, president and CEO of Wal-Mart's U.S. namesake division. He was at the Secaucus store Tuesday at a ceremony to promote six to eight workers.

The move is an addition to Wal-Mart's announcement in September that it would move 35,000 workers from temporary to part-time status and another 35,000 from part time to full time by year-end. The campaign builds on a theme the discounter pushed throughout the year, including at its annual shareholders' meeting in June, in which it cast the company as a place where employees have a chance to advance.

It has often highlighted that 75% of its store management teams started as hourly associates.

The latest campaign comes as Wal-Mart remains a target of attacks by critics, particularly union-backed groups that have argued the discounter puts profit ahead of its workers and pays meager wages.

Last week, OUR Wal-Mart, a group of current and former workers that have been staging protests at its stores, held a press conference in Washington, to pressure the discounter to pay all of its full-time workers at least $25,000 a year. It's planning another round of protests at its stores on the day after Thanksgiving, the traditional kickoff for the holid! ay shopping season.

The union-backed group latched on to a comment that Simon made at the Goldman Sachs retail investor conference last month when he said that more than 475,000 Wal-Mart workers earned more than $25,000 last year. OUR Wal-Mart inferred that with Wal-Mart employing 1.3 million workers in the U.S., about 825,000, or 63 percent, make less than $25,000 a year.

Wal-Mart says the group has distorted the figure, noting that more than 70 percent of its full-time hourly workers who have worked at its stores and its distribution centers for more than a year make at least $25,000. Wal-Mart isn't counting those who work at its Bentonville, Ark., headquarters or as drivers. Wal-Mart doesn't break down numbers for part-time and full-time workers but noted that full-time workers account for the majority of its workforce.

Saturday, February 14, 2015

Mid-Morning Market Update: Markets Open Mixed; FedEx Posts Rise In Profit

Following the market opening Wednesday, the Dow traded down 0.11 percent to 15,512.41 while the NASDAQ surged 0.16 percent to 3,751.53. The S&P also rose, gaining 0.04 percent to 1,705.41.

Top Headline
FedEx (NYSE: FDX) reported a rise in its fiscal first-quarter profit.

FedEx's quarterly profit surged to $489 million, or $1.53 per share, versus a year-ago profit of $459 million, or $1.45 per share.

Its revenue gained 2% to $11 billion from $10.8 billion. However, analysts were estimating earnings of $1.50 per share on revenue of $11 billion.

Equities Trading UP
Adobe Systems (NASDAQ: ADBE) shot up 6.79 percent to $51.41 after the company reported that its subscription revenue climbed 73% to $299.4 million and its Creative Cloud service added 331,000 paying subscribers in the same quarter.

Shares of New Residential Investment (NYSE: NRZ) got a boost, shooting up 6.10 percent to $6.78 after the company declared a third quarter dividend of $0.175 per share.

FedEx (NYSE: FDX) was also up, gaining 2.02 percent to $112.92 after the company reported a rise in its fiscal first-quarter profit.

Equities Trading DOWN
Shares of Tower Group International (NASDAQ: TWGP) were down 24.53 percent to $10.46. Tower Group announced its plans to release its Q2 results during the week of October 7, 2013. FBR Capital downgraded the stock from Outperform to Market Perform.

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (NASDAQ: CBRL) shares tumbled 2.50 percent to $104.32 after the company reported a 1.1% drop in its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings and issued a downbeat Q1 forecast.

Five Below (NASDAQ: FIVE) down, falling 4.02 percent to $46.55 after the company announced the secondary offering of 7.1 million shares by selling shareholders.

Commodities
In commodity news, oil traded up 0.46 percent to $105.90, while gold traded down 0.63 percent to $1,301.20.

Silver traded down 1.19 percent Wednesday to $21.53, while copper fell 1.32 percent to $3.27.

Eurozone
European shares were mostly higher today. The Spanish Ibex Index gained 0.53 percent, while Italy's FTSE MIB Index rose 0.29 percent. Meanwhile, the German DAX gained 0.28 percent and the French CAC 40 rose 0.37 percent while U.K. shares dipped 0.03 percent.

Economics
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its index of mortgage application activity rose 11.20% in the week ended September 13 versus the prior week.

US housing starts rose 0.9% to an annual rate of 891,000 in August. However, economists were expecting housing starts to reach an annual rate of 921,000.

The Federal Open Market Committee will announce its policy decision and economic projections at 2:00 p.m. ET.

Friday, February 13, 2015

Did Microsoft Just Pay $7 Billion for a New CEO?

The announced acquisition by Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) of the mobile phone business of Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK) for $7.2 billion gives Microsoft a couple of things. First, is an internal candidate to replace retiring CEO Steve Ballmer. The other thing Microsoft gets is a firm grip on a hardware company that ranks second in global handset sales but that has seen its market share drop from over 40% to less than 15%.

Nokia CEO Stephen Elop now becomes the odds-on choice for the top spot at Microsoft. The peripatetic Elop spent three years at Microsoft as the head of its business (Office) division before taking over at Nokia. He'll be bumped down to executive vice-president now, until the acquisition by Microsoft is completed.

Elop did not create Nokia's troubles, but he didn't solve them either. According to Gartner Inc. (NYSE: IT), Nokia held a 14% share of the global mobile phone market at the end of the second quarter and sold nearly 61 million units, second only to Samsung Electronics which had a market share of almost 25% and sold more than 107 million units.

In terms only of smartphones, Nokia sells virtually all of the smartphones on the market that use Microsoft's Windows Phone operating system. That amounted to 7.4 million units in the second quarter. The good news is that the number was up 83% year-over-year. The bad news is that Microsoft's share totaled just 3.3% of the operating system market.

The 61 million Nokia phones shipped in the second quarter included nearly 54 million feature phones and the market for those is dropping quickly as cheaper smartphones come onto the market.

Elop's main contributions to Nokia have been the original deal with Microsoft, the cost-cutting at Nokia, and the buyout of Nokia Siemens Networks from joint venture partner Siemens AG (NYSE: SI) for $2.2 billion. Not a lot of those achievements have a lot to do with selling smartphones, unless you consider that the company started with zero smartphone sales when Elop arrived.

Zero to 7 million isn't nothing, but then, it isn't not much either and the path for growth really doesn't change much, no matter whether Nokia is independent or a division of Microsoft. Two China-based companies, Lenovo and ZTE, both sold more smartphones in the second quarter than did Nokia, and there are other Chinese companies, like Yulong and Xiaomi, that Microsoft/Nokia will have to contend with at the mid- to low-end of the market.

Nokia's Elop has proved he could slow, if not stop the bleeding, at Nokia, and he managed to push a number of new products out the door. Microsoft paid for a substantial bit of the marketing for those products and once the deal for Nokia is completed the Redmond giant will have to spend a lot more than it has in the past if it is serious about carving out a space in the smartphone market.

So, no, Microsoft did not pay $7 billion for a new CEO, but Stephen Elop likely has the inside track to prove that Microsoft can make a profit in a business that the company has yet to make an appreciable dent in.

Tuesday, February 10, 2015

A Fresh Look at Ford's 2014 F-150 Tremor

Ford's 2014 F-150 Tremor. Photo: Ford Motor.

Ford's (NYSE: F  ) 2014 F-150 Tremor is the first sport truck powered by an EcoBoost engine, addressing desires of a street truck fan looking for high performance with fuel economy. It's a pretty smart move by the marketing folks at Ford to combine the growing brand image of its popular EcoBoost engine with its F-Series namesake. Will it be a hit with its target consumer, though? Will street enthusiasts who desire this type of sport truck accept a V-6? Let's take a look at the truck and see if the Tremor could be a successful addition for Ford.

Specs and facts
According to Ford's press release, the 2014 F-150 Tremor will come with the high-performance 3.5-liter EcoBoost engine it claims to offer V8 performance with V6 fuel efficiency. The Tremor will put out 365 horsepower with 420 pound-feet of torque while achieving 16 miles per gallon in the city and 22 mpg on the highway. According to the Detroit Free Press, the suspension has been tuned for performance and the 4.10 ratio rear axle will provide drivers with faster acceleration.

Looking at the exterior, its short-wheelbase and regular-cab Tremor has an FX appearance package that offers sleek flat-black accents and matching 20-inch flat-black wheels. Additional features include a floor shifter and HID headlamps. The Tremor also offers bucket seats rather than bench seats.

The interior has a more customized feel with its center console and red-stitched steering wheel and seats. It also comes standard with Ford's SYNC and MyFord Touch infotainment system -- which has been a little buggy for consumers but will continue to improve as the technology ages.


Ford's 2014 F-150 Tremor. Photo: Ford Motor.

"The new Tremor gives F-150 customers yet another option to drive a highly capable, distinctive performance truck with features typically found only in the aftermarket," said Brian Bell, F-150 product marketing manager in a Ford press release. "Plus, the Built Ford Tough EcoBoost engine is available for the first time in a short-wheelbase F-150." 

I initially thought that this would directly compete with Ford's Raptor, but it looks as if Ford will attempt to keep the base price under $30,000 -- although official pricing hasn't been released. If it can keep the price lower, it might open up doors to a consumer wanting an aftermarket look right off the dealer lot and at a fair price.

Investing takeaway
Keeping the price low will be key for the Tremor's success, but it will probably cannibalize sales of Ford's Raptor. Ultimately the Tremor and Raptor are niche vehicles that represent a very small amount of F-150 sales. Any incremental sales gained by the Tremor won't be enough to move the needle and create profits that the truck segment typically brings Ford -- but perhaps that isn't the goal.

Perhaps the goal is to simply attract as much attention from General Motors' (NYSE: GM  ) release of its 2014 Silverado and Sierra before Ford can release its next-generation 2015 F-150. A flashy looking ride, with high performance and fuel economy at a price under $30,000, could indeed be successful at stealing some thunder from GM's new models when the Tremor hits stores this fall.

The Tremor might be a success for consumers looking for this type of ride, and it will probably deliver performance-satisfying results. For investors, though, this is nothing to get excited about. It won't boost market share, profits, or sales numbers. But that's OK, because the F-Series already delivers a ton of profits to Ford's bottom line and has been America's favorite truck for 36 years. This can only steal excitement from GM's launch, which is fine by Ford investors.

Ford has been an excellent investment since the recession and the best investing approach is to choose great companies and stick with them for the long term. The Motley Fool's free report "3 Stocks That Will Help You Retire Rich" names stocks that could help you build long-term wealth and retire well, along with some winning wealth-building strategies that every investor should be aware of. Click here now to keep reading.

Monday, February 9, 2015

Is This the Key to Extending Apple's Recent Rally?

Whether or not tech giant Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) remains a buy is one of the most constantly talked about issues for tech investors everywhere -- and for good reason. Although the company's certainly created plenty of fortunes with its historic rise, it's also proven quite disappointing over the last 12 months. It seem Apple's shares might have finally found a floor after it announced the astounding increase to its capital return program in late April. However, Fool contributor Andrew Tonner recently saw an analyst note detailing at least one more major move Apple could do this year to keep the gains coming. To find out more, watch the video below.

It's especially worth noting that Apple has a history of cranking out revolutionary products... and then creatively destroying them with something better. Read about the future of Apple in the free report, "Apple Will Destroy Its Greatest Product." Can Apple really disrupt its own iPhones and iPads? Find out by clicking here.

Sunday, February 8, 2015

Falling in Love With Butane

Print FriendlyFall is always a welcome change of pace for most people after a long, hot summer. It brings relief not only from the temperatures, but at the gasoline pump as well. Pundits frequently notice this phenomenon during election years, and assume that vested interests are trying to manipulate prices to win elections. But there is a more straightforward explanation to what’s going on, and it can benefit consumers, LNG producers, and sometimes refiners.

Everyone knows that gasoline evaporates. What you may not know is that there are numerous recipes for gasoline, and depending on the ingredients the gasoline can evaporate at very different rates. And because gasoline vapors contribute to smog, the EPA seasonally regulates gasoline blends to minimize gasoline vapors.

The way the EPA regulates these vapors is by putting seasonal limits on the Reid vapor pressure (RVP). The RVP specification is based on a test that measures vapor pressure of the gasoline blend at 100 degrees F. Vapor pressure is a measure of the tendency to evaporate; the higher the vapor pressure the faster the evaporation rate. Normal atmospheric pressure is around 14.7 lbs per square inch (psi) at sea level. Substances with a vapor pressure higher than normal atmospheric pressure are gases, and those with a vapor pressure lower than normal atmospheric pressure are liquids.

But vapor pressure is also a function of temperature. Under normal atmospheric temperatures water is a liquid because its vapor pressure is below 14.7 psi. It still evaporates (i.e. it still has a vapor pressure), but very slowly. As water is heated, its vapor pressure increases, and as the boiling point of water is reached the vapor pressure of water reaches that of atmospheric pressure and the water becomes a gas (steam).

The same phenomenon applies to gasoline. As the temperature increases, the vapor pressure rises. Thus, in summer it is important to keep the ! RVP of gasoline at a lower level than in winter. The specific limit varies from state to state (and tends to be more restrictive in congested areas and warmer locations), but 7.8 psi is a common RVP limit in much of the US in the summer months. When a gasoline blender produces gasoline, it must be tested and it must be below the RVP limit for the month it is to be sold in.

In September, the RVP specifications begin to be phased back to cold weather blends which can have an RVP as high as 15 psi in some locations. This has a big effect on the cost of producing gasoline. The reason for this is butane.

Butane has an RVP of 52 psi, which means pure butane is a gas at normal pressures and temperatures. But it can be blended into gasoline, and its fractional contribution to the blend roughly determines its fractional contribution to the overall vapor pressure. As long as the total blend does not exceed normal atmospheric pressure (again, ~14.7 psi) butane can exist as a liquid in a gasoline blend.

But with a vapor pressure of 52 psi, butane can’t make a large contribution to summer blends where the vapor pressure limit is 7.8 psi. For example, if a gasoline blend contained 10 percent butane, its contribution to the vapor pressure limit is already 5.2 psi and you would still have 90 percent of the blend to go. It isn’t feasible to blend much butane into gasoline when the vapor pressure requirement is low. But when the limit increases by 5 or 7 psi, it becomes feasible to blend large quantities of butane.

Why do we care about blending butane? Because it is abundant and cheap. Butane can routinely trade at a $1/gallon discount to crude oil or gasoline. Butane is a component of natural gas liquids (NGLs), which are condensed out during natural gas processing. Given the huge expansion of natural gas production in the US, it should come as no surprise that NGL production is also on the rise. (Butane is also a byproduct of oil refining.)

2012 NGL price chart

Thus, butane lowers the cost of producing gasoline in the “winter” blends. Not only is it cheaper, but because butane can be blended at higher levels after Sept. 15, the gasoline supply increases. For example, in the summer a gasoline blend might only contain 2 percent butane. In the fall, that gasoline blend might contain 10 or 12 percent butane, which can reduce the cost of production by a dime a gallon — and further reduce the price because gasoline supplies have increased by 10 percent thanks to the inclusion of butane.

This transition takes place after the high demand summer driving season has passed. Hence, supplies increase and cost less to produce just as demand falls. This perfect storm takes place every fall, and will generally drive down the cost of gasoline for consumers.

Beyond consumers, this seasonal increase in butane demand is a temporary boon for NGL producers who have suffered from low prices in recent years. Refiners may also benefit, but this is a more complex dynamic. Their costs for producing gasoline are lower, but the increase in supplies also increases competition, which may force them to pass on all of the savings to consumers.

Sometimes other factors can trump seasonal trends. In 2005, another perfect storm called Hurricane Katrina caused more than enough problems to trump the normal season effect of falling prices. Occasionally hurricanes or geopolitical events will have a big enough effect on oil prices that the seasonal effect is diminished or eliminated.

But more often than not, falling leaves are accompanied by falling gasoline prices, and now you know why. Enjoy it while you can, though. Spring always brings an end to this perfect storm when the RVP specification steps back down on May 1 — increasing costs and decreasing supplies just in time for the start of the summer driving season.

 

Saturday, February 7, 2015

Trimble Navigation Increases Sales but Misses Revenue Estimate

Trimble Navigation (Nasdaq: TRMB  ) reported earnings on April 30. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended March 31 (Q1), Trimble Navigation missed estimates on revenues and beat expectations on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue increased. Non-GAAP earnings per share grew. GAAP earnings per share contracted.

Gross margins expanded, operating margins dropped, net margins dropped.

Revenue details
Trimble Navigation reported revenue of $556.1 million. The nine analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ predicted a top line of $578.3 million on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were 11% higher than the prior-year quarter's $502.3 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
EPS came in at $0.38. The 10 earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ predicted $0.37 per share. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.38 for Q1 were 12% higher than the prior-year quarter's $0.34 per share. GAAP EPS of $0.19 for Q1 were 5.0% lower than the prior-year quarter's $0.20 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 55.1%, 90 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 10.4%, 160 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 9.0%, 110 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. (Margins calculated in GAAP terms.)

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $572.6 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.37.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $2.29 billion. The average EPS estimate is $1.50.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a two-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 402 members out of 423 rating the stock outperform, and 21 members rating it underperform. Among 86 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 79 give Trimble Navigation a green thumbs-up, and seven give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Trimble Navigation is outperform, with an average price target of $34.50.

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Friday, February 6, 2015

7 Top Challenges Facing the New Republican Majority

Republicans had one of their most successful midterm elections of the modern era Tuesday night, bull-rushing their way to control of the Senate and coming within reach of their largest House majority since 1928.

See also: The U.S. Economy Is the World's Growth Engine Again

They must now try to bridge the gap between some of the party's staunchly conservative presidential hopefuls, including Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Rand Paul of Kentucky, and the man they hope to replace in the White House, President Barack Obama.

If Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) doesn't do enough to appease the GOP's most conservative members of his caucus when he becomes Senate majority leader in January, he runs the risk of losing their support and not being able to get anything done. And if he goes too far, he'll invite Obama to exercise his veto power with little chance of the GOP being able to round up the two-thirds majority of both the Senate and House that's needed to override.

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Here are the seven biggest obstacles the Republican-led Congress will face next year and beyond:

The clock. One year after control shifts to the GOP in January, the presidential primaries for 2016 will be within sight. Little of substance gets done in a midterm election year, when every House seat and a third of Senate seats are on the ballot. In a presidential election year, with control of the White House at stake along with House and Senate seats, odds of getting anything meaningful through Congress fade even more. That won't be any different with Republicans holding the gavel in both chambers. So Republicans have 10 to 12 months to set the tone.

Obamacare. Cruz and other favorites of the tea party promise to push for repeal of the health insurance program that stands as Obama's signature accomplishment three-fourths of the way through his presidency. McConnell and others in the mainstream bloc of the party see the repeal effort as a waste of valuable time, since Obama is sure to veto any attempt to kill it.

If McConnell can resist the political grandstanding that would accompany a repeal vote, there's a good chance that Congress can, instead, make some substantive changes to the legislation. One likely success: Changing the definition of a full-time worker who must be offered health insurance (or open the employer to paying a fine) to a person who works 40 hours per week. The law now says 30 hours defines full-time work. Lawmakers for both parties could also back a new, lower-premium insurance option to attract younger, healthier workers to enroll.

Tax reform. Don't hold your breath waiting for big changes in the tax code, now that Republicans will run both chambers. There will be plenty of talk but little action. Even cutting the corporate rate from 35% will run into trouble, despite having broad bipartisan support. Without a corresponding adjustment for individuals, owners of S corporations, who pay the individual rate and would lose some tax breaks under reform, would pay more than large corporations. The best bet for sweeping tax changes: 2017, when a new president moves into the White House.

Immigration. Republican successes Tuesday night will embolden Obama to issue his long-promised executive order delaying the deportation of most immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally. He'll almost dare Republicans to take the bait and try to reverse the order as part of broader immigration reform. Republicans can't go too far over the next two years, lest they offend Hispanic voters, who are already generally inclined to support Democrats.

Budget decisions. Republicans are likely to use reconciliation rules to attach some of their most cherished ideas -- entitlement reform, tax changes, maybe even repeal of Obamacare—to budget measures that need just 51 votes to pass instead of the usual 60. But once Obama vetoes the package, it will be back to square one. Budgeting will be done through a series of continuing resolutions, just the way it happened with Democrats in power in the Senate.

But both parties will find common ground on one fiscal issue. They'll put up more money for defense.

Foreign policy. Obama still has a big say on this front, but that won't stop GOP lawmakers from trying to press him to be more aggressive. They want to supply U.S. arms to help Ukraine push back against Russia, argue to put troops on the ground in Iraq and Syria and keep more of them in Afghanistan, and push for a harder line against Iran. Odds are they won't get far on these issues, but they will put the topics in play for the 2016 presidential race.

The final big obstacle for Republicans: Numbers. Democrats always get far more voters to the polls in presidential election years than their GOP counterparts, giving them an edge not only in the presidential election but also in Senate races in many states. In addition, just 10 seats now held by Democrats will be on the ballot in 2016, compared with two dozen Republican seats. So there's a solid chance that Republicans will relinquish Senate control in just two years, especially if McConnell and his colleagues can't figure out a way to successfully steer around the many obstacles.

Associate Editor Pam Prah contributed to this article.



Thursday, February 5, 2015

EBay spinning off PayPal as separate company

paypal ebay split PayPal will become a separate company after separating from eBay. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) EBay is spinning off its online payment service PayPal as a separate company.

The move, which has long been urged by some Wall Street analysts, was announced early Tuesday. It is expected to take place in the second half of 2015.

"This is the best path for delivering sustainable shareholder value," said the company's statement.

EBay (EBAY, Tech30) also announced a new executive team for both companies, with current CEO John Donahoe and chief financial officer Bob Swan planning to leave the company after the split.

Devin Wenig, currently president of eBay Marketplaces, will become CEO of the new eBay. The company also announced the appointment of Dan Schulman, an executive of American Express (AXP), to be the president of the PayPal unit until the split, and to be CEO of the independent PayPal.

Wednesday, February 4, 2015

Goldman Sachs Lines Up Its Next Victim: Ecuador

Unbowed by fines and new regulations, Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) has simply looked elsewhere for fresh victims.

In a deal that barely registered with the mainstream media, Ecuador's central bank agreed earlier this week to swap half of its gold reserves - worth $580 million - with Goldman in exchange for liquid assets.

goldman sachsThe Ecuadorian central bank thinks it's going to earn $16 million to $20 million in profit over the three-year duration of the deal. Of course, the details of the transaction, such as the fees and interest rate that Goldman is charging, were not disclosed.

And as we all know, the devil is in the details - particularly when you're dealing with a Wall Street pirate like Goldman Sachs.

"They've invited the wolf to dinner without realizing they're on the menu," said Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald. "There's no doubt that Goldman will come out the winner. We just don't know exactly how they plan to do it."

Goldman Sidesteps Washington... Again

Fitz-Gerald said that the Ecuador gold deal matters because it's telling us that Goldman and its nefarious brethren on Wall Street have not changed their behavior one iota in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis for which they were mostly to blame.

What's more, he said that U.S. politicians who believe that efforts like the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act have put a lid on Wall Street's bad behavior are dreaming.

"Washington thinks they have this thing under control," Fitz-Gerald said. "All they've done is just a slap on the wrist. The Big Banks have just reconstituted their business elsewhere, where they don't have the same regulatory burden. If you think anything has changed in New York, you're sadly mistaken."

And whatever Ecuador is saying publicly, that it was willing to make any kind of deal with the likes of Goldman Sachs indicates that the country is in serious trouble.

That much is obvious to everyone.

"It does raise a red flag," Bianca Taylor, a sovereign analyst at Loomis Sayles, told Bloomberg News. "Whenever a country needs to sell or monetize its gold reserves, it's definitely a signal that the sovereign is strapped for cash."

Maybe Ecuador genuinely believes that swapping its gold with a shark like Goldman will work out for the best, but history says otherwise...

The Damning Track Record of Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS)

One thing that anyone should know entering into a deal with Goldman Sachs is that they will come out on the short end. Goldman plays to win.

And it's more than willing to bend the rules in its favor. Just look at what Goldman did last spring...

GS made several moves to manipulate gold prices, advising investors to sell while snapping up the yellow metal as people followed their advice and prices dropped.

Goldman does much the same thing with stocks, mostly through its Conviction Buy List.

"The truth is that Goldman Sachs and the rest of the big banks on Wall Street invariably 'blow up' customers to make money for themselves," said Money Morning Capital Wave Strategist Shah Gilani. "And not only do big banks like Goldman run roughshod over their customers and clients, they manipulate markets, industries, economies, and countries to fatten their already gigantic bonus pools and personal fortunes."

Yes, countries. Ecuador wouldn't be the first nation to be seduced by Goldman's promise of rescue from a financial pickle.

Last fall, Goldman tried a similar stunt with Venezuela.

Like Ecuador, Venezuela is strapped for cash and thought it could use its gold reserves to obtain some extra liquidity.

The deal that was negotiated would have swapped 1.45 million ounces of Venezuelan gold - to be held for seven years by the Bank of England - in exchange for $1.6 billion from Goldman.

But the gold at that time was worth $1.8 billion, representing an immediate 10% profit for GS. In addition, Venezuela would have paid about 8% a year for the loan. And the gold collateral was to be subject to margin calls, adding more uncertainty.

Recognizing that Goldman probably did not have Venezuela's best interests at heart, the South American nation backed away from the deal before signing anything. Good for them.

But then there's the tragedy that was Greece.

Goldman Sachs Makes Greece Pay

Greece made a deal with Goldman back in 2001 to borrow about 2.8 billion euros disguised as a derivative so it would not show up as new debt and draw the ire of European Union regulators.

Right off the bat Greece owed 600 million euros more than it had borrowed. But things got much worse very quickly.

Because of how the derivative was structured, the drop in U.S. bond yields following the Sept. 11 attacks created huge paper losses for Greece. Goldman kindly offered to revise the deal to help out the struggling nation.

The inflation-based swap Goldman proposed went into effect in 2002. But then bond yields fell, driving Greece's losses on the deal to an appalling 5.1 billion euros.

Chalk up another victory for Goldman, which pocketed a fortune. Greece, on the other hand, was one step closer to a sovereign debt crisis that rippled out across Europe and was felt around the world.

It's a tale the Ecuadoran central bank should have brushed up on before shaking hands with anyone from Goldman.

"Greece is just another example of a poorly governed client that got taken apart," Satyajit Das, a risk consultant and author of "Extreme Money: Masters of the Universe and the Cult of Risk," told Bloomberg News. "These trades are structured not to be unwound, and Goldman is ruthless about ensuring that its interests aren't compromised - it's part of the DNA of that organization."

How do you think Ecuador will fare in its deal with Goldman Sachs? Share your thoughts on Twitter @moneymorning or Facebook.

You may recall that the unbridled greed of the Big Banks was also a primary force behind the subprime mortgage crisis. Amazingly, with the wounds from the last housing crisis still fresh, Wall Street is making a new gamble that threatens a $1 trillion mortgage meltdown...

Related Articles:

Bloomberg News:
Goldman Secret Greece Loan Shows Two Sinners as Client Unravels Bloomberg News:
Goldman Gets Ecuador Gold as Correa Steps Up Cash Hunt

Tuesday, February 3, 2015

Big data means big profits, risks for farmers

WASHINGTON -- When Dave Nelson climbed into his John Deere planter this spring to sow corn seeds across nearly 3,000 acres of land, the 39-year-old Iowa farmer was armed with a secret weapon: a precise, data-driven view of his operations that gave him an advantage over most farmers in the Corn Belt.

The past four years, Nelson has been testing a technology from Monsanto known as FieldScripts, a program that uses soil information, yield data and computer algorithms to identify which patches of land, some only a few meters in size, could support corn seeds planted closer together. Last year, the technology, which has recently been rolled out to farmers in Iowa and three other Corn Belt states, helped him squeeze an additional eight to 12 bushels per acre above his recent 10-year average of 195 bushels per acre. The result was up to an extra $50 for each corn acre, or about $150,000 throughout his operation -- revenue that would have otherwise gone unclaimed.

"I'm maximizing every kernel I put in the ground," said Nelson, who farms with his dad near Fort Dodge, Iowa. "Every farmer is going to say 'Oh, I've got data, but ... how many farmers can say I'm putting the data to work in every aspect of my farm?"

Agribusiness giants, such as Monsanto and DuPont Pioneer, are spending millions of dollars to help farmers mine ever-increasing amounts of data from their fields through "precision agriculture" technology to help them boost yields, lower their costs and reduce their risk, all the while increasing the amount of revenue they squeeze out of every acre.

These new products and services are developed by taking samples from a field to show the topography and characteristics of the soil, such as its nutrient content. Additional information such as weather patterns or yield trends from previous growing seasons are included to help a farmer select the seed that is best for a particular plot in a field, determine how much of it to use and establish how much fertilizer and chemicals they need a! nd when to apply them.

To be sure, farmers have been collecting data and making decisions based on their own information and observations in the field for years. But smart phones, iPads, apps and faster wireless networks have provided a catalyst for the information gathering and increased its usefulness for the farm community.

While farmers have started to embrace the promise of the technology, they have grown increasingly concerned the data about their operations could be sold to traders or commodity brokers even though no cases of abuse have been found. Other growers worry their data could wind up in the hands of other farmers or be used by companies to peddle more seed and fertilizer and set prices because they'll know more about how much farmers will be using.

Agribusiness companies have promised the farm community they would protect the data and not misuse it.

"We're real concerned about who gets access to that information, what they would be allowed to do with it once they have it," said Scott VanderWal, South Dakota Farm Bureau president. "We're too early in the process to see any unintended consequences yet but we have to think ahead to figure out where this is going and make sure we don't have any."

The American Farm Bureau Federation has said data collected from individual farms is valuable and should remain the property of the farmer. The country's largest farm group hosted a meeting in April in Kansas City with Monsanto, DuPont Pioneer, Deere & Co. and other agricultural companies to agree upon a set of standards to protect agricultural data gleaned from growers' fields.

While participants during the day-long meeting agreed the data belongs to the farmer, they still need to reach a consensus on how the information can be shared. Further meetings are planned for later this spring.

Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said in an interview last month that even though he was optimistic the burgeoning amount of farm data could help farmers grow more whil! e helping! the environment by reducing the amount of fertilizer and water being used, he said companies need to be do more to quell industry concerns.

"Agribusiness needs to be deeply concerned about the skepticism that most folks have about the privacy that is associated with the decisions that they make or information that is gathered on their farm," Vilsack said.

After decades of growth generated predominately from sales of seeds and chemicals, DuPont and Monsanto have made acquisitions and engaged in partnerships to grow their data-technology business, hoping to gain an early advantage over their competitors in the promising field. Monsanto has estimated the market for providing farm data analysis could be worth about $20 billion annually.

"This is just another component of where each organization can differentiate and try to get ahead," said Paul Schickler, president of DuPont Pioneer based in Johnston, Iowa. "Whatever we can do to bring more information and predictability and knowledge ... the better we can do in prediction of seed performance. That has been the holy grail for decades."

DuPont Pioneer is rolling out a new data platform called Encirca to help growers use their data to improve crop production and assist them in better using seed, nitrogen and water. DuPont has estimated Encirca services could generate more than $500 million annually for the company. It also launched a free service in March that allows growers to use a mobile-enabled information platform tied to their iPad or other device that organizes crop observations and gives them access to Pioneer expert advisers if needed. Farmers can upgrade to a subscription service that adds field-specific weather forecasts, market analysis and grain trading capabilities.

DuPont Pioneer also has struck an agreement with the University of Missouri and the USDA to pool soil mapping resources and technologies to help growers more sustainably improve crop yields through better nitrogen application management and other field ! input pla! nning. And in November, DuPont Pioneer reached a deal with agribusiness giant Deere & Co. that will let farmers see data that's been collected on their farms in a few minutes, rather than weeks or months.

At the same time, Monsanto, the world's largest seed company best known for its Roundup herbicide and genetically modified corn and soybean technology, introduced its FieldScripts service this year in four major corn producing states -- Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota and Indiana -- after testing it with farmers such as Nelson since 2010. And in October, Monsanto spent nearly $1 billion to purchase The Climate Corp., a provider of hyper-local weather monitoring and data models to farmers, that the seed and chemical company has combined with its FieldScripts technology.

FieldScripts users on average saw their corn yields rise by five to 10 bushels an acre, which translates to between $25 and $50 per acre based on current prices. The St. Louis seed company, which expects to grow FieldScripts for corn across the four states next year before expanding it to other states, has planned similar services for soybeans in a few years.

Here's how the technology works: The farmer provides the necessary data (yield history, soil conditions, etc.) to a local certified dealer. Monsanto crunches the data and suggests to the farmer which three corn hybrids are the best match for the grower's particular field conditions. The data is then sent back to the farmer and uploaded into the planter. The process to create a "prescription" for the farmer takes less than a month. During the growing season, Monsanto offers farmers another application that analyzes soil moisture content based on rainfall and the growth stage of the crop to help them determine how much fertilizer they need to apply, among other recommendations.

While revenue from data-driven technologies such as FieldScripts is not contributing much yet to growth and earnings, Anthony Osborne, The Climate Corp.'s vice president of marketing, said! the pare! nt company, Monsanto, is optimistic the new technologies can have "a significant impact on the company or we wouldn't be resourcing it at the level that we have." Monsanto generated close to $15 billion in net sales during its 2013 fiscal year, with 70% coming from its seed and genomics business.

"We view this as a platform that is as important to Monsanto as the biotech (one)," Osborne said.

Monsanto is operating its precision agriculture business separately from its commercial seed business. Osborne said the agribusiness giant's seed selection technology will suggest a competitor's product if it is found to be better for the farmer's operation. Not doing that would undermine the technology and Monsanto's credibility in precision agriculture, he said.

"If you think about this as a platform to provide expertise to growers, it has to work that way. And so as you build models and you have the data you make the best recommendation for a grower regardless of what that brand of seed or that herbicide or that fungicide would be," Osborne said. "You want to make the most sound recommendation that puts the grower in the best position possible."

Contact Christopher Doering at cdoering@gannett.com

What a Dizzying Day in the Markets

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- What a volatile trading day it was on Monday -- all the indexes roared out of the box, making huge gains, only to see those gains all wiped out before regaining their footing at the close.

The DJIA was up 138 points in early trading at 16500.37 before losing all those gains and hitting an intraday low of 16312. The DJIA closed at 16448.74, up 87.28 points. The S&P 500 closed at 1869.43, up 6.03 points.

The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 indexes, both in Trend Bearish territory as I have mentioned on many occasions, closed in the red today. The Nasdaq closed down 1.16 points at 4074.40. This was on the heels of Apple (AAPL) soaring 22.34 points to close at 594.28. One can only imagine what the Nasdaq would have looked like without the huge AAPL gains. The Russell 2000 closed down 5.97 points to finish at 1117.06.

Once again, we have two different markets. The DJIA and the S&P 500 vs. the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000. This is not a healthy stock market environment. The volume on Monday, which is always a concern of mine, finally showed some nice upward movement on a green day. The S&P 500 Trust Series ETF (SPY) traded well over 110 million shares on Monday. This was the first time since April 15 of this year. I would like to make a comment about my algorithm process that I utilize at www.strategicstocktrades.com. When I observe volume in relation to price movement, I like to look at the weekly trend, which is a three-month or longer time frame. The volume indicator, which I term the SST Volume Trend, has been showing a bearish divergence with all the index price movements since the week ended Dec. 20, 2013. As the price of the indexes has continued to rise, the volume has been steadily falling.

There is not a lot of buying force behind this upward trend in index prices. This is known as a negative divergence. It is just a matter of time before the market indexes will start to roll over. As a matter of fact, we may be seeing that take place at the present time. That is why the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 indexes have been diverging from the DJIA and the S&P 500. What this all means from a trading standpoint is be cautious. The perceived strength behind this market is not as strong as it appears. This market has no memory from day to day, let alone week to week. Apple, the big winner again today, is now well into overbought territory, according to my algorithm process. It will be approaching the extreme overbought signal Tuesday on green. Watch for AAPL profit-taking to kick in within the next day or two. Chasing AAPL at these levels is not a good idea. I did purchase two new positions today. I started a long in Lululemon Athletics, (LULU), a large-cap stock with a market cap of over $4 billion. I also started a small-cap long position in Oculus Innovative Sciences, (OCLS). Both are for short-term trades based on my extreme oversold indicator according to my algorithm process. At the time of publication, the author was long LULU and Oculus Innovative Sciences. This article represents the opinion of a contributor and not necessarily that of TheStreet or its editorial staff.

Stock quotes in this article: AAPL, LULU, OCLS 

Sunday, February 1, 2015

End-of-world money moves to make

The coming financial crash always looms. End of the markets, end of civilization, end of the world. How do you prepare?

I, along with many other economists, agree with many of the concerns in these dire warnings. The growing debt and deficit spending taxes those holding dollars. The devaluation in the U.S. dollar risks the dollar's status as the reserve currency of the world.

I don't disagree with economists' concerns; I disagree with their financial advice.

What will bring on TEOTWAWKI (survivalist shorthand for "The End Of The World As We Know It") isn't clear. Reaching the debt ceiling, taxes skyrocketing, governments crumbling, zombies roaming. Despite all the hyperbole, financial advice for pre-apocalypse preparation still offers tips that are worth a look any time.

Pay off your mortgage. Most TEOTWAWKI scenarios begin with the claim that the Federal Reserve prints money like there's no tomorrow to devalue the dollar to pay off the national debt.

If the Fed increases the money supply they devalue the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar. This should cause inflation even if official measurements of inflation remain artificially low.

So you face a choice: Pay off your mortgage with dollars today or with easier-to-get, devalued dollars over the next 30 years.

In fact, a 30-year fixed mortgage hedges best against inflation, especially at today's rates. For example, a $300,000, 30-year fixed mortgage carries payments of $1,368.15. Over 30 years' monthly payments, the mortgage costs $492,534.

Paying cash for your house now does save you $192,534 but also costs you the $300,000 you could instead invest in the stock market.

Let's assume that equities' returns average 7% and therefore double investments every 10 years. Your $300,000 over three decades doubles to $600,000, to $1.2 million, to $2.4 million. You therefore save $192,534 only by forgoing the possibility of $1.9 million in growth.

Better to have a 30-year fixed mortgage at low interest rat! es. The key idea: Use your mortgage wisely.

Remember, an investment pays you money. If you would spend the equity in your house on something that isn't an investment, you're better off paying off your mortgage. You have to have financial discipline to purchase investments.

Get out of paper. One way to think of inflation: a tax on those foolish enough to hold on to U.S. dollars – a fiat paper currency, which a physical commodity does not back – while the Fed devalues the currency. Limiting your investment in paper currency makes sense, especially currencies actively devalued, such as U.S. dollars, euros and yen.

Survivalists mean get out of everything on paper – stocks, bonds and other securities – claiming that if you are 50 or younger you won't see a dime of your market-based retirement savings.

Makes no sense. Yes, you own property via a paper deed and a car via a paper title. You own shares in Vanguard Real Estate exchange-traded fund (VNQ) on paper as well.

In that fund, you own shares of ownership in publicly traded real estate investment trusts that in turn own pieces of property by means of paper deeds. Similarly, if you own shares of Apple (AAPL), Coke (KO), Disney (DIS), Exxon (XOM) or Ford (F), you own a piece of these companies.

Even a global financial crash can't change your ownership in shares of publicly traded companies (though it can drive down the value of shares). Diversifying holdings in a portfolio of global scope also insulates your wealth from a specific country's turmoil.

Get out of debt. This is much better advice, assuming that civilization continues rather than collapses.

Let's assume we mean unsecured debt such as credit card debt. If civilization collapses, no credit card company can collect unpaid bills.

If civilization continues, avoiding, paying down or somehow dealing with your debt remains essential to building real wealth.

Buy gold. Easy to put your entire net worth in gold: Shops carry gold coins; you ! order gol! d coins online and they come directly to your door. There is no shortage of gold.

Gold runs about $1,300 an ounce. At that price, a million dollars in gold coins (about 800 coins) fits in a briefcase. Do you really believe a briefcase of pretty coins will carry $1 million in purchasing power if the money supply collapses?

Worse, if the global economy survives you're stuck with investment properties of gold bullion. Gold has a low expected return of just inflation and one of the highest volatilities as measured by standard deviation. That means that the optimum asset allocation to gold is always zero.

Even if the world ends, limit your investment in gold and silver to less than 3% of your portfolio. Unless civilization ceases entirely, publicly traded companies will continue to have assets that generate value. I especially like shares in companies in countries that are low in debt and deficit and high in economic freedom.

Get ready for the greatest buying opportunity of all time. This advice hinges on real goods going for pennies on the dollar after the dust settles from the failure of financial systems. Except hyper-inflation will multiply the price of real goods five times, not make those prices a hundred times cheaper.

Consider the change since 1970 because of inflation. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, $166,474 in 1970 bought what $1 million buys today. Your $100 in groceries today cost $16.65 in 1970.

Time in the markets beats timing the markets. How often do you wish you invested over any 30 years in the market? Time diffuses the market's volatility and a globally diversified portfolio best protects you against cataclysms anywhere.

Start saving and investing today.

David John Marotta is president of Marotta Wealth Management of Charlottesville, Va., and is a member of the AdviceIQ Advisors Network, which is a USA TODAY content partner offering financial news and commentary. Its content is produced independently of USA TODAY.

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