Saturday, November 30, 2013

Mid-Day Market Update: Agilent Shares Rise On Upbeat Earnings; Western Union Drops

Midway through trading Friday, the Dow traded up 0.27 percent to 15,919.54 while the NASDAQ gained 0.08 percent to 3,975.79. The S&P also rose, surging 0.12 percent to 1,792.81.

Top Headline
Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) reported upbeat third-quarter net income.

Nordstrom's quarterly net income declined to $137 million, or $0.69 per share, from $146 million, or $0.71 per share, in the year-earlier period.

Its revenue climbed 3% to $2.88 billion from $2.81 billion, while revenue from stores open at least a year gained 0.1 percent. However, analysts were projecting earnings of $0.67 per share on revenue of $2.87 billion.

Equities Trading UP
Voxeljet AG (NYSE: VJET) shot up 12.58 percent to $58.99 after the company reported its unaudited financial results for the third quarter and nine months ending September 30, 2013.

Shares of Youku Tudou (NYSE: YOKU) got a boost, shooting up 11.08 percent to $29.28 after the company reported a Q3 gross profit of RMB82.3 million (US$13.4 million).

Agilent Technologies (NYSE: A) was also up, gaining 8.75 percent to $54.96 after the company reported an upbeat Q4 profit.

Equities Trading DOWN
Shares of Tile Shop Holdings (NASDAQ: TTS) were down 2.16 percent to $12.67. Citigroup downgraded Tile Shop from Buy to Neutral.

Gogo (NASDAQ: GOGO) shares tumbled 2.01 percent to $28.22 after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock from Equal-weight to Underweight.

The Western Union Company (NYSE: WU) was down, falling 5.26 percent to $16.53 after the company announced that Scott T. Scheirman , Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will be leaving the company.

Commodities
In commodity news, oil traded up 0.03 percent to $93.79, while gold traded up 0.09 percent to $1,287.40.

Silver traded up 0.06 percent Friday to $20.74, while copper rose 0.30 percent to $3.18.

Eurozone
European shares were mostly higher today. The Spanish Ibex Index fell 0.10 percent, while Italy's FTSE MIB Index fell 0.41 percent. Meanwhile, the German DAX gained 0.29 percent and the French CAC 40 climbed 0.19 percent while U.K. shares rose 0.45 percent.

Economics
US import prices declined 0.7 percent in October, versus economists' expectations for a 0.5 percent fall. Export prices fell 0.5 percent in October.

The Empire State's general business conditions index declined to negative 2.2, versus positive 1.5 in October. However, economists were estimating a positive reading of 5.0.

Industrial production dropped 0.1 percent in October. However, economists were projecting no change in production.

US wholesale inventories rose 0.40 percent for September, versus economists' expectations for a 0.40 percent gain.

Posted-In: Earnings News Guidance Eurozone Commodities Forex Global Econ #s Economics Hot Intraday Update Markets Movers Tech

(c) 2013 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

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Friday, November 29, 2013

10 Best Casino Stocks To Own For 2014

Whether or not "sell in May and walk away" will play out this year remains to be seen as the S&P 500 rallied to a new all-time record high to begin this week. For skeptics like me, that's an opportunity to see whether companies have earned their current valuations.

Keep in mind that some companies�deserve�their current valuations. Take Waste Management (NYSE: WM  ) , for instance, which has rallied ever since reporting its first-quarter results last week. The company's internal revenue growth from yield for its collection and disposal operations came in at a two-year high, 1.4%, and the company modestly improved its adjusted year-over-year EPS. Trash disposal and recycling are necessity businesses and make Waste Management a solid long-term buy.

Still, other companies might deserve a kick in the pants. Here's a look at three companies that could be worth selling.

Time to make the switch
If I could name a sector that I'd certainly tread lightly around considering that consumers are tightening their wallets, it would be the casino sector. Casino companies rely on loose wallets and vacations to drive profits. This is why I feel it could be the time to say goodbye to casino and race track operator Pinnacle Entertainment (NYSE: PNK  ) near its 52-week high.

10 Best Casino Stocks To Own For 2014: Wynn Resorts Limited(WYNN)

Wynn Resorts, Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, ownership, and operation of destination casino resorts. The company owns and operates Wynn Las Vegas casino resort in Las Vegas, which includes approximately 22 food and beverage outlets comprising 5 dining restaurants; 2 nightclubs; 1 spa and salon; 1 Ferrari and Maserati automobile dealership; wedding chapels; an 18-hole golf course; meeting space; and foot retail promenade featuring boutiques. Wynn Las Vegas casino resort also features approximately 147 table games, 1 baccarat salon, private VIP gaming rooms, 1 poker room, 1,842 slot machines, and 1 race and sports book. It also owns and operates an Encore at Wynn Las Vegas resort, a destination casino resort located adjacent to Wynn Las Vegas that features a 2,034 all-suite hotel, as well as a casino with 95 table games, 1 sky casino, 1 baccarat salon, private VIP gaming rooms, and 778 slot machines. In addition, the company operates Wyn n Macau casino resort located in the Macau Special Administrative Region of the People?s Republic of China. Wynn Macau casino resort features approximately 595 hotel rooms and suites, 410 table games, 935 slot machines, 1 poker room, 1 sky casino, 6 restaurants, 1 spa and salon, lounges, meeting facilities, and retail space featuring boutiques. Further, it operates Encore at Wynn Macau resort located adjacent to Wynn Macau. Encore at Wynn Macau resort features approximately 410 luxury suites and 4 villas, as well as casino gaming space, including a sky casino consisting of 60 table games and 80 slot machines, 2 restaurants, 1 luxury spa, and retail space. The company was founded in 2002 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Michael Vodicka]

    But that got me thinking: Which companies from the S&P 500 are the most shareholder friendly, with the biggest dividend increases in the last 5 years? Here is a list of the top 5 companies from the last 5 years with the biggest dividend increases.

    UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 152%Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN) 137%Aetna, Inc. (AET) 136%Ensco Plc. (ESV) 121%Western Union (WU) 91%

    But from the group, there is one company that offers the most unique combination of growth and income. And even though shares are up a market-beating 43% on the year, there should be plenty more to come.

  • [By Travis Hoium]

    The recovery in Las Vegas is gaining steam, and after 6.4% growth in May and 4.3% growth over the past year, the gaming companies there have some room to breathe. MGM Resorts (NYSE: MGM  ) and Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ: CZR  ) have the most to gain, but Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN  ) and Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS  ) will benefit as well. In the following video, gaming analyst Travis Hoium covers who will benefit the most from Las Vegas' growth and one stock to stay away from.�

  • [By Matt Thalman]

    While Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS  ) and Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN  ) are both major players in Macau, MGM Resorts (NYSE: MGM  ) is making a big push to grow its base in the Chinese gambling mecca, while it also has a massive footprint in Las Vegas, and the other two have a much lower room count. MGM owns a good portion of the Las Vegas Strip, and as we continue to see average daily hotel room rates rise for the city and increased gaming revenue for the strip, we will see MGM greatly benefit from a recovering American tourist industry and a stronger Las Vegas.

  • [By Daniela Pylypczak]

    Wynn Resorts (WYNN) announced on Tuesday that it plans to run its online gaming business in Caesars Entertainment Corp’s hotel in New Jersey.

    Wynn, which does not have any casinos in New Jersey, will run its online gaming business through computers at Caesars hotel in Atlantic city. Both Caesars and Wynn will be working with 888 Holdings Plc, one of Europe’s largest online gambling operators.

    Currently, Wynn owns two destination casinos:�Wynn Las Vegas and Wynn Macau. The two casinos feature roughly 186,000 and 275,000 square feet of casino gaming space, respectively.

    Wynn shares gained 0.70% during Tuesday’s session. Year-to-date, the stock is up 31.30%.

10 Best Casino Stocks To Own For 2014: Boyd Gaming Corporation(BYD)

Boyd Gaming Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a multi-jurisdictional gaming company in the United States. As of December 31, 2011, the company owned and operated 1,042,787 square feet of casino space, containing approximately 25,973 slot machines, 655 table games, and 11,418 hotel rooms. It also owned and operated 16 gaming entertainment properties located in Nevada, Illinois, Louisiana, Mississippi, Indiana, and New Jersey. In addition, the company owns and operates a pari-mutuel jai-alai facility located in Dania Beach, Florida, as well as a travel agency in Hawaii. Further, it holds a 50% controlling interest in the limited liability company that operates Borgata Hotel Casino and Spa in Atlantic City, New Jersey. Boyd Gaming Corporation was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Dan Caplinger]

    The real question is whether Zynga can hold off experienced casino operators if online gambling becomes a reality. Already, alliances are forming, with Boyd Gaming (NYSE: BYD  ) and MGM Resorts (NYSE: MGM  ) having linked up with bwin.party -- the same company Zynga tapped for its real-money Zynga Poker -- to help Boyd take advantage of newly legal online gambling in New Jersey. Zynga has the obvious edge with its social savvy, but established casino companies will have huge incentives to defend their turf if Zynga starts to make a serious dent in the industry.

  • [By Travis Hoium]

    Even if a federal bill does pass, there's no guarantee Zynga would win. Online poker is all about gaining a critical mass of users, and it's a uphill battle. MGM Resorts (NYSE: MGM  ) and Boyd Gaming (NYSE: BYD  ) have already partnered with bwin.party for a U.S. online gaming venture. Bwin.party is one of the largest real-money online poker companies in the world, and with PokerStars likely shut out of the U.S. in the near future, this would be a formidable opponent. Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ: CZR  ) has also had its eyes on online poker for some time, and with the World Series of Poker brand, it has a big draw for players. Caesars thinks so much of online poker that it's spinning off its "growth" assets, and online games are a key part of the new company.

  • [By Dan Caplinger]

    MGM has built a history of being the odd player out in many of the most lucrative opportunities in the gaming industry. In Macau, the company is stuck in the slower-growth area of the Asian gaming destination. In Las Vegas, the new CityCenter area in the mid-Strip has watered down MGM's opportunities and has created another potential barrier for patrons coming from the northern end of the Strip to its namesake MGM Grand property. And in New Jersey, where online gaming has boosted prospects for Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ: CZR  ) and Boyd Gaming (NYSE: BYD  ) , MGM has no exposure.

  • [By Travis Hoium]

    What: Shares of Boyd Gaming (NYSE: BYD  ) jumped 10% today after the company got an analyst upgrade.

    So what: Morgan Stanley upgraded shares to overweight today, and gave the stock a $12 price target. The analyst cited the potential for online gaming as the driver of the stock, potentially bringing as much revenue to the industry as Las Vegas and Atlantic City combined. �

Top Warren Buffett Companies To Buy For 2014: Umax Group Corp (UMAX)

Umax Group Corp., incorporated on March 21, 2011, is a development-stage company. The Company focuses to develop and distribute its product to the arcade and entertainment industry. The Company�� products include Rocket Launch, is Strength testing game which allows players to test their pushing/ throwing strength; Space Hockey, is a two player hockey game - each player must score as many as possible goals and Boxer, is a Simple punch testing game: insert coin/token/bill, press start button, hit the punch bag, wait for result, and try to beat opponent�� score or high score.

As of April 30, 2013, the Company had no revenues. The Company has developed its business plan, and executed exclusive distribution contract GEO a private enterprise, where it engages GEO as an independent contractor for the specific purpose of developing, manufacturing and supplying games for the Company.

10 Best Casino Stocks To Own For 2014: Pinnacle Entertainment Inc.(PNK)

Pinnacle Entertainment, Inc. owns, develops, and operates casinos, and related hospitality and entertainment facilities in the United States. It operates casinos, such as L'Auberge du Lac in Lake Charles, Louisiana; River City Casino and Lumiere Place in St. Louis, Missouri; Boomtown New Orleans in New Orleans, Louisiana; Belterra Casino Resort in Vevay, Indiana; Boomtown Bossier City in Bossier City, Louisiana; and Boomtown Reno in Reno, Nevada. The company also operates River Downs racetrack in southeast Cincinnati, Ohio. As of May 26, 2011, it operated seven casinos and one racetrack. The company was formerly known as Hollywood Park, Inc. and changed its name to Pinnacle Entertainment, Inc. in February 2000. Pinnacle Entertainment, Inc. was founded in 1935 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Dan Radovsky]

    Pinnacle Entertainment (NYSE: PNK  ) has reached an agreement in principle with the Bureau of Competition of the Federal Trade Commission that would allow the company to complete its proposed acquisition of Ameristar Casinos (NASDAQ: ASCA  ) , Pinnacle announced today.

  • [By Travis Hoium]

    What: Shares of Ameristar Casinos (NASDAQ: ASCA  ) and Pinnacle Entertainment (NYSE: PNK  ) fell as much as 11% today after the government brought into question the merger of the two companies.

  • [By Ben Levisohn]

    Pinnacle Entertainment (PNK) has gained 56% this year; Las Vegas Sands (LVS) has climbed 38%. And Deutsche Bank has nice things to say about both today.

    Bloomberg

    First Pinnacle. Deutsche Bank’s Carlo Santarelli ponders the stock’s big move and comes away still seeing value in its shares. He writes:

    When we upgraded PNK in April, our thesis centered on the FCF strength of the combined entities [Pinnacle completed its acquisition of Ameristar Casinos on Aug. 14], a handful of favorable catalysts, easing regional gaming comps, & an inexpensive relative valuation. Given the shares’ sizeable move since then, we believe it is worth revisiting the investment case. Post the announcement of several asset sales and the closing of the transaction, we are adjusting our estimates, raising our PT to $30 from $24, and maintaining our bullish view at current levels given what we still believe to be an attractive free cash flow valuation, meaningful potential synergy realization beyond the $40 mm of announced benefits, and a free option on a lagging regional recovery.

    Santarelli also revisited Las Vegas Sands and there too, he likes what he sees. He writes:

    With…LVS at [a share price level] that have been challenging to break from over the last year plus, we believe this time is different and hence we see continued upward momentum…In the case of LVS, we see; 1) meaningful mass market strength continuing through year end, setting the stage for upward company and market estimate revisions for 2014, 2) continued cash flow appreciation and capital returns serving as downside protection and positive catalysts, and 3) continued shared gains, largely driven by table optimization and mass market strength, driving both estimates and sentiment.

    He also likes Wynn Resorts (WYNN), despite its 34% gain.�Santarelli writes:

    As for WYNN, we believe near-term estimates continue to take a back seat to capital return

  • [By Sean Williams]

    Time to make the switch
    If I could name a sector that I'd certainly tread lightly around considering that consumers are tightening their wallets, it would be the casino sector. Casino companies rely on loose wallets and vacations to drive profits. This is why I feel it could be the time to say goodbye to casino and race track operator Pinnacle Entertainment (NYSE: PNK  ) near its 52-week high.

10 Best Casino Stocks To Own For 2014: MGM Resorts International(MGM)

MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, primarily owns and operates casino resorts in the United States. The company?s resorts offer gaming, hotel, dining, entertainment, retail, and other resort amenities. It also owns and operates golf courses and a golf club. As of December 31, 2010, the company owned and operated 15 properties located in Nevada, Mississippi, and Michigan; and has 50% investments in 4 other casino resorts in Nevada, Illinois, and Macau. In addition, MGM Resorts International has an agreement with the Mashantucket Pequot Tribal Nation, which owns and operates a casino resort in Connecticut, to carry the ?MGM Grand? brand name. The company was formerly known as MGM MIRAGE and changed its name to MGM Resorts International in June 2010. MGM Resorts International was founded in 1986 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Dan Caplinger]

    The real question is whether Zynga can hold off experienced casino operators if online gambling becomes a reality. Already, alliances are forming, with Boyd Gaming (NYSE: BYD  ) and MGM Resorts (NYSE: MGM  ) having linked up with bwin.party -- the same company Zynga tapped for its real-money Zynga Poker -- to help Boyd take advantage of newly legal online gambling in New Jersey. Zynga has the obvious edge with its social savvy, but established casino companies will have huge incentives to defend their turf if Zynga starts to make a serious dent in the industry.

  • [By Travis Hoium]

    What we can take from this is that, most likely, Las Vegas Sands and Melco Crown (NASDAQ: MPEL  ) will see a large increase in revenue when they report earnings. We can also assume that MGM Resorts (NYSE: MGM  ) will show similar trends in Macau because its location is next to Wynn's. There's far more growth to be had than what Wynn is showing and Las Vegas Sands and Melco Crown likely took significant share during the first quarter.

10 Best Casino Stocks To Own For 2014: Penn National Gaming Inc.(PENN)

Penn National Gaming, Inc. and its subsidiaries own and manage gaming and pari-mutuel properties in the United States. It operates approximately 27,000 gaming machines; 500 table games; and 2,000 hotel rooms in 23 facilities in 16 jurisdictions, including Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ontario. The company was formerly known as PNRC Corp. and changed its name to Penn National Gaming, Inc. in 1994. Penn National Gaming, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is based in Wyomissing, Pennsylvania.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Paul Ausick]

    Penn National Gaming Inc. (NASDAQ: PENN) completed on Monday the spin-off of its real-estate holdings into a new REIT, Gaming and Leisure Properties Inc. (G&LP) (NASDAQ: GLPI). The spin-off was first announced a year ago. Shares in GLPI are trading at around $46.51 after opening at $45.76 this morning.

10 Best Casino Stocks To Own For 2014: (XTRN)

Las Vegas Railway Express Inc. focuses to re-establish a conventional passenger train service between the Las Vegas and Los Angeles metropolitan areas. It plans to establish a ?Vegas-style? passenger train service. The company is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Thursday, November 28, 2013

Private Capital Management Sells Update

The updated portfolio of Private Capital Management lists 71 stocks, 3 of them new, a total value at $1.09 billion, and a quarter-over-quarter turnover of 7%. The portfolio is currently weighted with top three sectors: technology at 26%, healthcare at 20.7%, and industrials at 14.8%. The stocks bought by Private Capital averaged a return of 9.91% over 12 months. Here's a look at a few of Private Capital Managements' most recent sells, selected from 20 decreases made in the third quarter. Private Capital sold out a long-time holding in Prestige Brands Inc., the company that sells and distributes over-the-counter healthcare and household cleaning products to retailers. Familiar product names include Comet, Chore Boy, and Gaviscon.

Prestige Brands Inc. reported financial results for its second quarter of fiscal 2014 with a net income of $32.8 million, up 71% from the same quarter of the previous fiscal year. Earnings of $0.63 per diluted share increased from $0.38 in the prior year's quarter. Adjusted earnings of $0.47 per share reflected an increase of 11.9%, compared to $0.42 in the same quarter a year ago. Prestige Brands reported operating income for the quarter at a record $53.8 million, up from $51.2 million in the same quarter of the previous fiscal year.

Prestige Brands Holdings (PBH): Sold Out

Impacts Portfolio: -0.65%

Up 66% over 12 months, Prestige Brands Holdings has a market cap of $1.81 billion; its shares were traded at around $35.06 with a P/E ratio of 21.50. The company does not pay a dividend.

Guru Action: As of Sept. 30, 2013, Private Capital Management sold out its PBH, after 12 quarters of gains, often triple-digit. In the third quarter of 2013, the firm sold 236,944 shares at an average price of $32.69 per share, for a gain of 7.6%, the history's low point.

Here's more guru and insider trading.

Track share pricing, revenue and net income:

Alere Inc. (A! LR): Reduced

Impacts Portfolio: -1.54%

Up 84% over 12 months, Alere Inc., a medical diagnostics and research company, has a market cap of $2.68 billion; its shares were traded at around $32.80 with a P/B ratio of 1.80. The company does not pay a dividend.

Guru Action: As of Sept. 30, 2013, Private Capital Management reduced its position by 41.64%, selling 661,954 shares in the average price range of $30.44 per share, gaining 7.8%.

Current shares are 927,844.

Over five years, the firm has averaged a gain of 22% on 1,896,924 shares bought at an average price of $26.80 per share. On shares sold, the firm averaged a gain of 17% on 969,080 shares sold at an average price of $28.11 per share.

Here's more guru and insider trading.

Track share pricing, revenue and net income:

UTI Worldwide Inc. (UTIW): Reduced

Impacts Portfolio: -0.9%

Up 12% over 12 months, UTI Worldwide Inc., an integrated shipping and logistics company, has a market cap of $1.66 billion; its shares were traded at around $15.86 with a P/B ratio of 2.10. The dividend yield is 0.40%.

Guru Action: As of Sept. 30, 2013, Private Capital Management reduced its position by 47.36%, selling 575,157 shares at an average price of $16.20.

Current shares are 639,230.

Overall, firm has averaged a gain of 10% on 1,446,259 shares bought at an average price of $14.45 per share. On shares sold, the firm averaged a loss of 1% on 807,029 shares sold at an average price of $16.05 per share.

Here's more guru trading. No insider trades were found.

Track share pricing, revenue and net income:

Founded in 1986 by the legendary investor Bill Miller, Private Capital Management (PCM) is now owned by portfolio manager and CEO, Gregg Powers. He is widely-known for his research skill and has been a key driver at PCM since 1988.

Private C! apital ha! s a singular focus on fundamental value investing. The firm's flagship mutual fund is the Private Capital Management Value Fund (VFPAX), with total assets of $57.6 million, according to Morningstar.

Here's the complete portfolio of Private Capital.

Use the GuruFocus Value Screen to find 52-Week Lows and discover potentially deep value stocks held by billionaire Guru investors.

GuruFocus Real Time Picks reports the stock purchases and sales that Gurus have made within the prior 2 weeks. The report time lag can be as short as 2 days after the date of the transaction. This feature is for Premium Members only.

If you are not a Premium Member, we invite you for a 7-day Free Trial.

About the author:Sally Jones writes about Real Time Picks. She says, "I truly enjoy watching the Gurus in realtime and telling their story."

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Rating: 5.0/5 (1 vote)

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PBH STOCK PRICE CHART

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Buy Digital Ally to Secure Your Portfolio

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (Stockpickr) -- In my trading, (short- to intermediate-term), I am guided almost wholly by technical analysis. I'm a charts man. And in my investing (longer-term), I pick my stocks using fundamental analysis, then rely on the charts to dictate my entry and exit points.

A couple of months ago, I became fundamentally very interested in the company Digital Ally (DGLY), which produces digital video imaging, audio recording and related storage products for use in law enforcement and security applications in the U.S. and internationally. Law enforcement agencies throughout the U.S. are beginning to adopt Digital Ally's products on an increasingly massive scale, and it is becoming ever more evident that these products will soon be considered basic equipment for all police departments.

Competitor Taser International (TASR) has a head start on Digital Ally and is already a big player in this field, due to the popularity of the usually non-lethal weapon from which the company derives its name. But just as nature abhors a vacuum, the market abhors a monopoly -- and this is where Digital Ally comes in. With municipal governments coming increasingly under the gun with respect to their budgets, they will be forced to seek the highest-quality products for the lowest possible prices. I believe Digital Ally is the hands-down winner in both categories and that its products will become the standard for use by police forces in the U.S. and throughout the world.

As I said, I was highly interested in this company a couple of months ago and was considering making an investment when suddenly the DGLY stock price took off like a rocket. I certainly wasn't going to chase the stock to make an investment, but the price action provided some excellent opportunities for monstrously profitable trades. And I have been watching DGLY ever since, biding my time from an investor's standpoint.

As you can see in the charts, my patience has paid off. After nearly doubling in two weeks, from the $9 level to more than $17, DGLY has now come all the way back down to that $9 level.

The above three adjacent charts are daily, weekly and monthly. You can see on the daily chart that the RSI shows DGLY being very oversold, near-term. The weekly chart, in the middle, is not as encouraging. It shows the MACD just in the early stages of a bearish crossover, and the RSI is not yet oversold. This indicates -- but certainly does not guarantee -- that DGLY could fall further in price. The monthly chart, on the right, shows the MACD just in the early stages of bullishly overtaking the zero line, and it also shows with the RSI that the overbought energy from September's furious rally has now been worked off.

Of the three charts, only the weekly chart shows any reason for concern, so I believe it is prudent to go ahead and enter a small position in DGLY, then patiently wait to see if an even better entry price might present itself, for the remainder of one's desired investment in Digital Ally.

As always, do your own due diligence.

-- Written by Ben Brinneman in Charlotte, N.C.

At the time of publication, author was long DGLY.

Trader Ben Brinneman, featured on MarketWatch, Bloomberg and Reuters, resides in Charlotte, N.C., and is the owner of C Squared Trading. Brinneman started his career trading bonds for U.S. Bancorp and was an analyst for a wealth management firm. Brinneman and his team at C Squared Trading have taught hundreds in a one-on-one mentorship setting via Skype or live in Charlotte.

 

You can follow some of their free trades and tips on Twitter at @csquaredtrading.


Sunday, November 24, 2013

Earnings Scheduled For October 17, 2013

Baxter International (NYSE: BAX) is expected to report its Q3 earnings at $1.19 per share on revenue of $3.81 billion.

Dover (NYSE: DOV) is projected to report its Q3 earnings at $1.50 per share on revenue of $2.31 billion.

The Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) is estimated to report its Q3 earnings at $2.43 per share on revenue of $7.36 billion.

Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) is projected to post its Q3 earnings at $10.35 per share on revenue of $14.82 billion.

Philip Morris International (NYSE: PM) is expected to report its Q3 earnings at $1.43 per share on revenue of $7.94 billion.

Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ) is estimated to report its Q3 earnings at $0.74 per share on revenue of $30.16 billion.

Nokia (NYSE: NOK) is projected to report its Q3 earnings at $0.00 per share on revenue of $7.92 billion.

Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) is expected to post its Q3 earnings at $0.02 per share on revenue of $1.42 billion.

UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH) is estimated to report its Q3 earnings at $1.53 per share on revenue of $30.78 billion.

PPG Industries (NYSE: PPG) is expected to report its Q3 earnings at $2.34 per share on revenue of $3.96 billion.

Nucor (NYSE: NUE) is estimated to report its Q3 earnings at $0.39 per share on revenue of $4.78 billion.

Capital One Financial (NYSE: COF) is expected to post its Q3 earnings at $1.80 per share on revenue of $5.59 billion.

Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP) is projected to report its Q3 earnings at $2.47 per share on revenue of $5.58 billion.

Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ: FITB) is expected to report its Q3 earnings at $0.41 per share on revenue of $1.55 billion.

Stryker (NYSE: SYK) is projected to post its Q3 earnings at $1.00 per share on revenue of $2.15 billion.

Werner Enterprises (NASDAQ: WERN) is expected to post its Q3 earnings at $0.29 per share on revenue of $503.82 million.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) is estimated to post its Q3 earnings at $2.78 per share on revenue of $820.28 million.

Quest Diagnostics (NYSE: DGX) is projected to report its Q3 earnings at $1.17 per share on revenue of $1.82 billion.

Valmont Industries (NYSE: VMI) is expected to post its Q3 earnings at $2.43 per share on revenue of $800.97 million.

Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS) is estimated to post its Q3 earnings at $0.75 per share on revenue of $3.47 billion.

athenahealth (NASDAQ: ATHN) is expected to post its Q3 earnings at $0.31 per share on revenue of $154.99 million.

The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) is estimated to report its Q3 earnings at $0.55 per share on revenue of $1.25 billion.

Danaher (NYSE: DHR) is projected to report its Q3 earnings at $0.83 per share on revenue of $4.62 billion.

Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG) is expected to post its Q3 earnings at $3.40 per share on revenue of $525.99 million.

Posted-In: Earnings scheduleEarnings News Pre-Market Outlook Markets

(c) 2013 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

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Traders & Investors Summit Register for this FREE Event! Hosted by Marketfy $(function () { var dateToday = new Date(); var dateCheck = dateToday.getTime() - 60*60*4*1000; var theMarketfyDate = new Date(2013, 8, 21, 9, 00, 00); if(dateCheck

Is It Time For Low Volatility Funds?

With the recent government shut-down and debt ceiling limit quickly approaching, the market has once again begun it's up and down movements. Adding in slowing growth in key emerging markets like China and debt problems in Europe once again beginning to resurface and it's no wonder why volatility has returned with a vengeance. Funds that attempt to track this "fear" - such as the iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX) –have spiked in recent weeks, while the broad market indexes have gone down.

Given the recent volatility of the market, investors could be getting a little seasick. Luckily, there are a variety of new ways for the average retail investor to "smooth out" their ride over the short term.

Minimizing The Roller Coaster Ride

The term volatility gets used a lot by financial journalists and bloggers, but many investors don't really understand the basic concepts behind it. Essentially, volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk about the size of changes in a security's value. In other words, the price of the security can change dramatically over a short time period in either direction. It's the difference between riding a roller coaster and driving across the plains of Kansas. While there is nothing inherently wrong with high volatility stocks, these movements can create panic selling and many restless nights.

And it seems that investors have been having more restless nights as of late.

Over the past two weeks -as the shutdown has commenced and other pieces of global economic data have struggled. The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index has surged almost 25%. Meanwhile, the broad market Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:VOO) has dropped around 1.76% in only five days. That's certainly creating some very restless nights for those approaching retirement. Enter low volatility funds.

These funds essentially use screens to kick out high volatility stocks and capture the upside of the market while limiting the downside as well as the "b! ounciness" associated with markets movements. They also can produce better returns as well. According to index provider MSCI (NASDAQ:MSCI), replacing its standard indexes in a balanced portfolio of U.S., Developed market international and emerging markets with its low volatility versions will produce an extra 1.8% in returns. Meanwhile volatility was cut nearly in half.

A Low Volatility Portfolio

Historically, funds like the Utilities Select Sector SPDR (NYSE:XLU) have been low beta options for investors. However, Wall Street has begun rolling out new products that target this sector of market place. Here are a few portfolio ideas.

With nearly $4.28 billion in assets, the PowerShares S&P 500 Low Volatility (NASDAQ:SPLV) is the king in the space. The fund tracks 100 stocks in the benchmark S&P 500 that have exhibited the lowest volatility over the last 12 months. Top holdings include Kellogg's (NYSE:K) and utility Dominion Resources (NYSE:D). That focus on limiting the markets bumps has worked well. Since the fund's inception in 2011, SPLV has managed to outperform the S&P 500 by 1.25%. Not to be out done, the iShares MSCI USA Minimum Volatility (NASDAQ:USMV) similar index and is heavily weighted in consumer staples, healthcare and information technology companies. The SPDR Russell 2000 Low Volatility ETF (NASDAQ:SMLV) can be used to cut volatility in the small-cap portion of a portfolio.

Some of the largest bouts of volatility have come from the international space. Already, higher "risk" stocks, these two market segments tend to move around much more than their U.S. counterparts. The iShares MSCI EAFE Minimum Volatility (NASDAQ:EFAV) can be used as a broad developed market proxy, while emerging market investors have an interesting choice in the EGShares Low Volatility Emerging Markets Dividend ETF (NASDAQ:HILO). The fund is composed of 30 low volatility stocks from various emerging markets and is designed to provide a high yield, but with a lower volatility than the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. The ETF currently yields a juicy 4.87%.

The Bottom Line

The recent government shutdown, potential debt ceiling breach as well as dour global economic news has once again caused volatility to rear its ugly head. Those market swings can cause for some rough nights of sleep for investors. However, a new crop of low volatility! funds could be the best ways to smooth out the market's bumpy ride.

Disclosure - At the time of writing, the author did not own shares of any company mentioned in this article.

Saturday, November 23, 2013

Gold Ends Week Below $1,300 as it Searches for a Bottom

It's not fun to be a gold-and-silver investor.  

Gold settled Friday at $1,244.10 an ounce, 50 cents higher on the day but down 3.4 percent for the week. It was gold's worst weekly loss in 10 weeks. For the month, gold is off six percent and down 25.8 percent for the year.

Silver was off 7.2 cents on the day and is off 9.2 percent for the month and 34.3 percent for the year.

Since peaking in the summer of 2011, gold is down some 34 percent. Silver's decline is nearing 60 percent. Gold has fallen for nine of the last 10 weeks. Silver has dropped 19 percent since the end of August.

The collapse of the metals is partly due to the gains in stocks since the 2009 market bottom. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 16,000 on Thursday and finished the week at a record 16,065. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index finished at a record 1,805, its first close above 1,800.

The woes for silver and gold also reflects the lack of inflation, the Federal Reserve's low-interest-rate policy since 2008, and soft economic growth since the 2008-2009 recession ended -- not to mention relative peace in Washington, D.C. (for now, anyway).

In addition, hedge fund managers who had been big on gold and silver were forced out of their positions. John Paulson's gold fund has fallen more than 63 percent this year, and, as The Wall Street Journal reported Friday, he's told investors he's not buying more.

Gold and silver have just been terrible places to put your money for more than two years. And it's not clear when the bottom will come. Many gold and silver enthusiasts were sure the metals could only go higher when gold touched up against $1,900 in August 2011.

But precious metal prices can be volatile, often wildly so.

Gold hit $702 an ounce in early 1980 and fell to as low as $260 in 2000 before pushing higher again starting in 2002. So a pullback from $1,900 was inevitable.

Once a bubble breaks -- and gold and silver were both in bubbles in 2011 – it's hard to stop the downtrend. The charts of both metals don't suggest a bottom is near.

The woes of gold and silver have hurt gold and silver mining stocks. Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM), the largest domestic gold miner, closed down 0.5 percent to $25.73 on Friday. The shares are down 5.6 percent in November and down 44.6 percent this year. And those declines come after a 22.6 percent decline in 2012.

The Amex Gold Bugs Index, which tracks a portfolio of gold-mining stocks, was off nearly one percent on Friday at 209, and is down 53 percent for the year.

Mining stocks can be more volatile than the metals themselves, because their valuations reflect not only the price of the metal but production costs as well.

The week ahead may see continued pressure on gold, according to a survey of gold traders by Kitco Metals. Silver would likely see the same pressures. The Fed probably won't start tapering its $85-billion-a-month bond-purchases until the first quarter at the earliest.

"Gold's best chance at a turnaround is damage done to the euro currency," Phillip Streible, a senior commodity broker at RJO Futures, told Kitco. 

Posted-In: Gold gold and silver metals metals and mining mining Phillip Streible precious metals RJO Futures SilverNews Wall Street Journal Commodities Federal Reserve Hot After-Hours Center Markets Media Interview Best of Benzinga

(c) 2013 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

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Friday, November 22, 2013

Top 5 Companies To Buy Right Now

Virginia Heritage Bank (VGBK)

Today, VGBK remains (0.00%) +0.000 at $16.00 thus far (ref. google finance Delayed: 9:30AM EDT July 31, 2013).

Virginia Heritage Bank previously reported quarterly earnings of $2.5 million after taxes, or $0.55 per share (basic) and $0.54 per share (diluted), for the period ended June 30, 2013. This is a 29% increase over earnings of $1.9 million after taxes, or $0.44 per share (basic and diluted), from the same period a year ago. On a year-to-date basis, earnings were $4.5 million after taxes, or $1.01 per share (basic) and $0.98 per share (diluted) through June 30, 2013 versus $3.3 million after taxes, or $0.76 per share (basic and diluted) in 2012.

The Bank�� second quarter results produced an annualized rate of return of 1.25% on average assets and 16.66% on average common equity compared to 1.25% and 15.40%, respectively for the same period a year ago. On a year-to-date basis, the annualized rate of return was 1.15% on average assets and 15.67% on average common equity compared to 1.12% and 13.55%, respectively for 2012.

Top 5 Companies To Buy Right Now: Pacific Andes Resources Devltd (P11.SI)

Pacific Andes Resources Development Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the development, marketing, and distribution of fish and fish products. The company manages and operates fishing vessels; sells fish and marine catches; operates ship repairing agency; trades in frozen seafood products and marine fuel; produces and sells fishmeal and fish oil; and sells marine fuel oil. It also offers charter hire services; packaging materials to fish suppliers; and a range of at-sea transportation and logistical services to fishing companies. In addition, the company is involved in fishing and property holding activities. Pacific Andes Resources Development Limited markets its products primarily in Hong Kong and other regions in the People�s Republic of China; east Asia, South America, Europe, Africa, and internationally. The company was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Hong Kong, Hong Kong. Pacific Andes Resources Development Limited is a subsidiary of Clamford Holding Limited.

Top 5 Companies To Buy Right Now: Mount Gibson Iron Ltd(MGX.AX)

Mount Gibson Iron Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, evaluation, and development of hematite deposits in Australia. It operates The Tallering Peak mine located in the east of Geraldton; Koolan Island mine situated in the Kimberley coast, western Australia; and Extension Hill direct shipping ore hematite project located in the Mt Gibson Range. The company was founded in 1996 and is based in West Perth, Australia.

Hot Performing Stocks To Own Right Now: ArthroCare Corporation(ARTC)

ArthroCare Corporation, a medical device company, develops, manufactures, and markets surgical products primarily based on its minimally invasive patented Coblation technology in the Americas and internationally. The company?s Sports Medicine business provides energy-based systems and fixation technologies used to treat soft tissue injuries in the shoulders, knees, and hips. It offers ArthroWands product line that features Coblation based specialized disposable energy-based surgical wands designed for single patient use to treat orthopedic conditions, including shoulder, knee, hip, foot, ankle, elbow, and wrist injuries; and Soft-Tissue Fixation products comprising a line of specialized implants and instruments, such as knotless and traditional anchors for rotator cuff and labrum repairs in shoulder; screws for ligament reconstruction in knee; a range of arthroscopic suture passers; and reusable hand-held instruments, procedural kits, and accessories. The company?s Ear N ose and Throat (ENT) business provides surgical products used to treat conditions performed by ENT healthcare professionals. It offers various products for general head, neck, and oral surgical procedures, including sinus surgery, snoring treatment, nasal turbinates reduction, and adenoid and tonsil removal. The company also provides surgical products for the treatment of spine related and other conditions. Its products include SpineWand devices used to treat soft tissue conditions in spine; Plasma Disc Decompression products for treating contained herniated discs; Cavity SpineWand that reduces the size of malignant lesions in the vertebrae of patients suffering from spinal compression fractures; and WoundWand for acute and chronic wound debridement, and wound cleansing. ArthroCare sells its products to surgeons and specialized medical professionals through sales representatives, and independent sales agents and distributors. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquarte red in Austin, Texas.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By John Udovich]

    Laparoscopic surgery or minimally invasive surgery (MIS) is a type of surgical technique where�operations in the abdomen are performed through small incisions while small cap stocks ArthroCare Corporation (NASDAQ: ARTC), EDAP TMS S.A. (NASDAQ: EDAP), SafeStitch Medical Inc (OTCBB: SFES) and Arch Therapeutics Inc (OTCBB: ARTH) are all in some way focused on aiding minimally invasive procedures. According to a 2012 report produced by MedMarket Diligence, LLC, approximately 114 million surgical and procedure-based wounds occur annually worldwide,�including�36 million in the US, and perhaps�up to a quarter of these procedures can be described as laparoscopic in nature.�Moreover,�use of the technique is bound to increase�as�it reduces�pain and hemorrhaging plus leads to a�shorter recovery time.

Top 5 Companies To Buy Right Now: X-Rite Incorporated(XRIT)

X-Rite, Incorporated develops, manufactures, markets, and supports color solutions through measurement instrumentation systems, software, color standards, and services in the United States, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. Its measurement instrumentation systems include colorimeters utilized to measure printed colors on packages, labels, textiles, and other materials; spectrophotometers, which measure light at various points over the visible spectrum; densitometers that are instruments that measure optical or photographic density, compare such measurement to a reference standard, and signal the result to the operator of the instrument; spectrodensitometers, which combine the function of a densitometer with the functions of a colorimeter and a spectrophotometer; and sensitometers that are used to expose various types of photographic film for comparing with a reference standard. The company also provides software and databases that allow the users to collect and store color mea surement data, compare that data to established standards and databases, communicate color results, and formulate colors from a database. In addition, it offers standards product line comprising products for the communication and reproduction of color digitally or in print for establishing color standardization; and support services that provide customers, an access to color professional specialists, training, and technical support through color seminars, classroom workshops, on-site consulting, and interactive media development, as well as service repair operations. Further, the company provides retail paint matching systems for home centers, mass merchants, hardware stores, and paint retailers. It serves printing, packaging, photography, graphic design, video, automotive, paints, plastics, textiles, and dental and medical markets through sales personnel, independent sales representatives, and dealers. The company was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Grand Rapids, Mi chigan.

Top 5 Companies To Buy Right Now: Tsodilo Resources Limited (TSD.V)

Tsodilo Resources Limited engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral properties in the Republic of Botswana. It holds 96% interest in the Ngamiland project consisting of 9 diamond prospecting licenses covering an area of approximately 3,940 square kilometers located in northwest Botswana. The company also holds interests in the Gcwihaba diamond project comprising 6 diamond prospecting licenses covering an area of approximately 2,546 square kilometers in northwest Botswana. In addition, it holds 18 prospecting licenses for base and precious, platinum group metals, and rare earth elements covering an area of approximately 12,118 square kilometers, as well as 8 prospecting licenses for radioactive minerals covering approximately 7,000 square kilometers in northwest Botswana. The company was formerly known as Trans Hex International Ltd. and changed its name to Tsodilo Resources Limited in April 2002. Tsodilo Resources Limited was founded in 1995 and i s headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Best Buy shares drop on tough holiday outlook

Best Buy shares fell more than 5% in pre-market trading Tuesday after the retailer says it expects a tough competitive environment during the holiday season.

The electronics retailer reported a return to profit in the third quarter and beat Wall Street expectations but investors focused on the holiday outlook.

Best Buy chief financial officer Sharon McCollam, said the retailer faces "an increasingly promotional environment" and "we are committed to being competitive on price."

"If our competition is in fact more promotional in the fourth quarter, we will be too and that will have a negative impact on our gross margin," McCollam said in a statement.

Best Buy reported net income of $54 million, or 16 cents per share, in the third quarter. That compares with a with a loss of $10 million, or 3 cents per share,in the third quarter of last year.

The struggling retailer beat Wall Street estimates of 11 cents a share, according to Thomson Reuters

Revenue was nearly flat at $9.36 billion.

Best Buy has been cutting costs and revamping stores to offset tough competition from discounters and online retailers. Under CEO Hubert Joly, the company has instituted a price-matching policy, opened more dedicated areas for manufacturers such as Apple and Samsung and invested more to train employees.

Contributing: Associated Press

Monday, November 18, 2013

A Drug Company Addicted to Growth

Print FriendlyAs America’s baby boomers grow older, complaints of chronic pain are on the rise.

A report released last year by the Institute of Medicine, one of the United States National Academies, found that about 100 million Americans reported suffering from some form of chronic pain in the past year at a total societal cost of nearly $635 billion. More people suffer from chronic pain in any given year than those who suffer from diabetes, coronary heart disease and cancer combined.

As chronic pain has become more prevalent in America, so have the opioid pain relievers most commonly used to treat it. Between 1999 and 2008, the sale of such drugs increased by 300 percent while the number of prescriptions written for them shot up from about 75.5 million to 209.5 million.

Unfortunately, opioid pain relievers act on the same neurological pathways as heroin, making them highly addictive and increasing the potential for abuse. It’s estimated that in 2011, nearly 2 million people in the US alone meet the generally accepted criteria for opioid abuse or dependence.

Amid the growing use and misuse of opioid pain relievers, the race is on to create effective, opioid-like pain relievers with lower potential for abuse.

Mallinckrodt PLC (NYSE: MNK), which resulted from Covidien’s (NYSE: COV) pharmaceutical business spinoff this past June, is leading the charge in that arena.

Mallinckrodt operates in several channels: it manufacturers active pharmaceutical ingredients (API), which it markets to other pharmaceutical companies; uses its APIs to develop and manufacture its own branded and generic drugs; and has a global medical imaging businesses that develops, manufactures and sells contrast media and delivery systems, including nuclear imaging agents.

Since the company’s spinout, it has made a modest gain of just 5.7 percent, largely thanks to the fact that the company’s 18! 0-day exclusivity period on generic Concerta has expired and will lose its protections next year. Because of that looming expiration, management has issued earnings per share guidance significantly below this year’s earnings.

The earnings downgrade has created an attractive entry point for investors to take advantage of four new drugs that the company will introduce to the market over the next 18 months or so.

Two new branded products, Xartemix XR and Pennsaid, have been submitted to the FDA for approval and are designed to treat acute and moderate-to-severe pain with abuse-deterrent characteristics that make them excellent alternatives to currently used opioids with high abuse potential. The company’s new formulation of its Concerta pain medication is also currently under review by the FDA and all three drugs are scheduled for launch by the end of next year.

According to data from Mallinckrodt, the acute pain market is valued at nearly $3 billion, with $1.2 billion worth of prescriptions written annually in the company’s target market. If it offers attractive alternatives to opioids, it can snag a large share of that spending for itself in fairly short order, particularly by targeting the specialized pain treatment practices that have sprung up around the country. Specializing in treating patients with chronic pain, those practices will be eager for less additive alternative pain treatments, which will ultimately reduce their potential legal liability.

Thanks to aggressive patenting strategies, Mallinckrodt will enjoy patent protections on its new products through 2032. Although they won’t render the company’s products bulletproof, those protections will at least reduce the potential for new competition to enter the market.

One of the company’s key growth strategies will be to heavily invest in research and development to exploit its patent portfolio in less addictive pain medications.

In addition to those new drugs, Mallinck! rodt also! has a few other competitive advantages that make it attractive. Through its generics and API businesses, the company currently holds a 40 percent share in controlled substances as defined by the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), through licenses it holds to manufacture those drugs. In particular, it holds a 32 percent market share of DEA schedule II and III opiate compounds.

Mallinckrodt is also the only non-Asian based manufacturer of acetaminophen, the active ingredient in over-the-counter pain relievers such as Tylenol.

Most significantly, about a quarter of the company’s revenues are generated by its nuclear imaging segment. This segment is one of only two manufacturers of generators that convert molybdenum-99 into technetium-99 in the US and one of only three in Europe. Given the extremely sensitive nature of that technology, the emergence of any new competitors in that field is extremely unlikely, especially in light of heavy regulatory controls in place.

Because of these existing advantages, Mallinckrodt should be able to hold its own in terms of earnings over the next year. At the same time, it will draw growing amounts of investor attention as its new products enjoy likely FDA approval.

Although its shares will likely remain volatile over the next few months, Mallinckrodt’s solid long-term prospects rate it a buy up to 56.

Sunday, November 17, 2013

Can the Fed and consumers keep rally going?

Dow 16,000? Who cares!   Dow 16,000? Who cares! NEW YORK (CNNMoney) Stocks gained more than 1% last week and continue to march to record highs. Some key psychological levels are in sight. But will the market keep climbing? That may depend on more news from the Federal Reserve and how much consumers are spending.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is closing in on 16,000, while the S&P 500 is inching toward 1,800. The tech-heavy Nasdaq is nearing 4,000, a level not seen since September 2000, just months after the tech market collapsed.

Ongoing stimulus measures from the Federal Reserve have fueled the bull market for the past several years, and investors were encouraged last week by comments from Janet Yellen, President Obama's nominee to be the next Fed chair. Yellen, who may be confirmed by the Senate as soon as this week, told the Senate Banking Committee the Fed will continue to support the economic recovery.

She added that the Fed's $85-billion-per-month bond-buying program still has the power to help reduce unemployment.

The Fed will remain in the spotlight this week, as investors parse through minutes from the central bank's last meeting in late October.

The Dow is up more than 20% this year while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained more than 25% and 30% respectively. That has raised questions about whether stocks are overvalued. But Yellen assured lawmakers that she's not seeing any major bubbles forming.

Data seems to support that. The S&P 500 is trading at 17 times earnings from last year, just slightly above the historical average of 16, according to Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) Merrill Lynch.

In the bubble days of 2000, the index was trading at nearly 30 times trailing earnings. And analysts expect earnings will continue to grow next year, which should justify further increases in the broader stock market.

Consumers in focus: Investors will be paying particularly close attention to a slew of earnings reports from some of the nation's largest retailers to get a fresh pulse on how consumers are feeling with the holiday shopping season just around the corner.

Last week, investors received a mixed bag of results from three top retailers. Macy's (M, Fortune 500) blew away forecasts but Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500) and Kohl's (KSS, Fortune 500) both issued disappointing guidance.

Best Buy (BBY, Fortune 500) and J.C. Penney (JCP, Fortune 500), both of which are in the middle of turnaround plans, are among the first to report next we! ek.

Investors are encouraged by the signs of life from Best Buy. They've sent shares of the once ailing electronics retailer up nearly 270% so far this year, making it the second best-performing stock in the S&P 500, just after Netflix (NFLX). It is scheduled to report earnings on Tuesday.

And even though J.C. Penney is expected on Wednesday to report a wider loss than a year ago and another drop in sales, the stock has rallied lately on hopes the worst is over. Several hedge funds have also bought stakes in J.C. Penney lately, another sign that the stock may have bottomed.

Struggling teen retailer Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), which is among the worst-performing stocks of the year, is also on tap to report earnings. The company already warned of a big sales decline.

Target (TGT, Fortune 500), Gap (GPS, Fortune 500) and Victoria's Secret and Bath & Body Works parent L Brands (LTD, Fortune 500) are reporting their latest results this week as well.

Retail's good, bad, and ugly   Retail's good, bad, and ugly

Earnings from off-price leaders Ross (ROST, Fortune 500) and TJX (TJX, Fortune 500), owner of T.J. Maxx and Marshalls, as well as discount chain Dollar Tree (DLTR, Fortune 500), could show that consumers are continuing to gravitate to retailers that offer the biggest bargains.

Home Depot (HD, Fortune 500) and Lowe's (LOW, Fortune 500) are also scheduled to report earnings. Results from these two home improvement retailers are a key gauge of the housing recovery, which has helped boost the economy this year.

The Census Bureau will release October figures for retail sales on Wednesday. To top of page

Saturday, November 16, 2013

Ritz-Carlton Is Coming to Wherever You (and the Chinese) Want to Be

SAN DIEGO (TheStreet) -- Ritz-Carlton is embarking on an ambitious expansion of properties over the next three years that will bring its total portfolio to 100 hotels worldwide in ever more exotic locations as it seeks to capitalize on luxury travel trends.

The expansion, announced last week, involves approximately 20 new properties by 2016, including six hotels scheduled to open by the last quarter of this year. Openings are scheduled for locations including Bali, Morocco and three sites in China.

"This is part of our strategic growth plan and is also based on our desire to be where our guests travel," says Ritz-Carlton's global officer of worldwide operations, Bob Kharazmi. During a telephone interview about the expansion, Kharazmi explained that the hotel chain uses a variety of input to identify locations for future properties, including surveys, customer comments, studies of luxury trends and meetings with business partners who book substantial amounts of business with Ritz-Carlton. The emerging travel habits of the Chinese are also playing a role. Also see: Asia Wants Your High-End Retail Right Now>> "If you look into the travel patterns of the Chinese out of China, it is growing rapidly. Travel out of China will hit 100 million travelers by 2020, so we are always interested to know where they are going, and that becomes a road map for us," Kharazmi adds. Among the exciting locations coming for the luxury hotel chain is Tamuda Bay, just a few miles outside of Tangier, Morocco, scheduled to open in 2015. The chain is also opening a property in Marrakech in 2016.

In China, Ritz-Carlton hotels will soon be found in Chengdu, Tianjin and Nanjing.

The chain's just-announced expansion also includes its first offerings in Israel, Kazakhstan and India.

Still other future properties will be in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, and Tunis, Tunisia. Also see: Inaugural Luxury Hotel Index Shows U.S. Still Leads in Hospitality Brands>>

Kharazmi was unable to disclose exactly how much Ritz-Carlton will spend to build the 20 properties, as each has different ownership and financing arrangements. The design of the hotels -- as well as furnishings, food and beverages -- will also vary by location to be in step with the host country or city. "We try to be consistently inconsistent with the design phase," Kharazmi says. "We try to bring relevancy of the market where the property is located. So if a property is in Bali, it will have the look, feel and touch of Bali and Balinese culture within the design. If the property is going to be in Morocco, the same thing -- it will have a Moroccan look and feel. We design properties to be relevant to their marketplace." This won't be the last of the expansion announcements. These are good times for Ritz-Carlton, Kharazmi confirmed, both in terms of continued growth and recognition as a leader in the luxury industry. Ritz-Carlton ranked No. 1 in the luxury category in the J.D. Power 2013 North America Hotel Guest Satisfaction Index Study, the fourth consecutive year Ritz-Carlton has held the spot. "We have pipeline of a lot of projects," Kharazmi says. "It is an exciting time for our brand, and we're happy that we are able to keep the brand fresh in the heart of our customers."

Friday, November 15, 2013

Oxford Industries Posts Higher Q2 Net Sales, EPS: Beats EPS Estimates (OXM)

After the bell on Tuesday, Oxford Industries (OXM) announced its second quarter earnings, posting a 14% increase in net sales from last year’s same quarter.

The Atlanta, GA-based apparel company announced second quarter consolidated net sales of $235 million, which were up from last year’s Q2 figure of $206.9 million. The company’s EPS, on an adjusted basis, came in at $1.01, a 55% increase from last year’s 65 cents.

Oxford Industries beat analysts’ Q2 EPS estimates of 98 cents, but missed the analyst revenue consensus of $243.5 million.

Looking forward to full-year 2013, Oxford Industries lowered its EPS guidance to a range of $2.90 to $3.05. This comes in below the analysts’ consensus of $3.12.

OXM shares were up 86 cents, or 1.33%, at the end of trading on Tuesday. YTD the stock is up more than 40%.

Thursday, November 14, 2013

Up 50% Already, This Stock Could Be The Dow's Biggest Gainer Of 2014

In the search for value, it pays to focus on stocks that have performed poorly yet have catalysts for a long-awaited upward move.

That approach led me to aircraft maker Boeing (NYSE: BA) last autumn. 

The company's stock had been trading nearly 40% below its pre-crisis peak, even as many other Dow components had already moved back up to levels seen back in early 2008.

My suggestion that Boeing could be the best rebound stock in the Dow was on the mark, as shares have risen 66% since then, compared with a roughly 15% rise in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index.

     
   
  Copyright 2013 © Boeing  
  Boeing appeared poised to deliver roughly 120 Dreamliners (787s) a year by mid-decade. Arment thinks that figure now looks conservative, predicting the company will crank out 160 by 2016.

 

The "bottom-fishing" angle for Boeing has likely played out -- but that doesn't mean it's time for profit-taking. In fact, Sterne Agee analyst Peter Arment sees an additional 40% upside ahead.

In general, I tend to steer clear of analysts' price targets as they are often based on near-sighted assumptions and typically fail to reflect multi-year growth drivers and challenges. But in this case, Arment backs up his $164 price target with a very cogent analysis, worth reflecting here.

First, let's get the bad news out of the way. Boeing is a leading defense contractor, and the company's revenues from Uncle Sam are expected to shrink, from $32.6 billion in 2012 to $26.5 billion by 2016. Operating profits in this segment are also expected to fall roughly $500 million, to $2.5 billion by then.

But it's the commercial aircraft segment that keeps getting stronger. As I noted in my look at the company a year ago, Boeing appeared poised to deliver roughly 120 Dreamliners (787s) a year by mid-decade. Arment thinks that figure now looks conservative, predicting the company will crank out 160 of the high-margin fuel-efficient planes by 2016.

In addition, the analyst notes that Boeing has been building a strong order book for its 737-MAX, an upgrade to the 50-year-old workhorse, which is expected to enter production in 2017. Boeing already has more than 1,500 orders in hand for the plane, thanks to simulations that show the 737-MAX burns less fuel than comparable Airbus offerings.

"Outside the soft cargo market, global demand remains healthy and resilient given requirements to replace aging fleets, satisfy emerging growth regions, and add more fuel-efficient aircraft to existing fleets," Arment predicts.

By 2018, he thinks Boeing will be producing 800 planes annually. That's up from 500 in 2011 and 600 in 2012. And that kind of growth will have a direct impact on profit margins and free cash flow.


Source: Sterne Agee

Arment thinks Boeing's operating margins won't surge until later in the decade when both the 787 and 737-MAX are being produced in high volumes. The gain of roughly 4 percentage points in operating margins from 2016 until 2020 isn't merely a guess. We know how much it costs for Boeing to make a plane, and we know the average selling price of these planes, so barring a major economic slowdown, Boeing should be able to meet these targets.  

Rising margins in the commercial aircraft division should help fuel robust growth in free cash flow. Arment sees it rising from $4.9 billion this year to more than $10 billion annually by later this decade. And that spells greater shareholder returns.

In recent years, Boeing's dividend has suffered from benign neglect rising from around $1.60 a share in 2008 to a current $1.94, which is a 4% compound annual growth rate. Boeing is lavishing more attention on buybacks, with a current plan calling for $1.5 billion to $2 billion in further buybacks underway. 

But as the share price rises higher, buybacks make less sense, so Boeing may look to more aggressively boost its dividend in coming years. Applying $5 billion of its annual free cash flow to its dividend would boost it to roughly $6.50 a share. 

So how does Arment arrive at his $164 price target? By applying a 12 times multiple to projected 2015 free cash flow. Frankly, that seems a bit aggressive, as most large-cap stocks rarely trade for more than eight or nine times forward free cash flow. Arment's view: that target multiple is justified "given peak free cash flow generation is still two years later in 2017." 

Here's how you should look at it. You can either follow the lead of other analysts who will steadily bump up their price target with each passing year, until they too have $160 or $170 price targets a half decade from now. Or you could simply focus on Arment's long-term view -- and buy shares now before they begin inching their way higher.  

Risks to Consider: There's a decent chance that the global economy will face a major slowdown at some point in coming years, which will push shares of Boeing temporarily out of favor.

Action To Take--> I love this kind of stock recommendation from a Wall Street firm. It shows a far-sighted view that gets away from quarterly earnings analysis, and is backed up with solid evidence. Few companies have such a tremendous backlog in hand as Boeing does, giving the company a leg up in terms of long-term predictability and visibility -- which investors crave.

P.S. -- Every year StreetAuthority comes out with a list of the best stocks to own for the upcoming year. These picks have gained up to 159.9% in the past -- and this year's group could be the best yet. Click here to get all the details.

Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY): Still A Good Buy?

Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) has been on a roll as 2013 has been a lucky year for shareholders. The electronics stores operator is up more than 250% on the year, making BBY one of the S&P 500's best buys of the year, so far.

Like one of those infomercials, but wait, there is more to come according to UBS. Analyst Michael Lasser upped his outlook on the stock to "Buy" from "Neutral." Which clich̩ do you prefer Рbetter late than never or a little late to the party?

Anyway, Lasser says the stock is going to $49.  The analyst makes his case: "The move in BBY's share price this year has been all about multiple re-rating with the forward PE moving from 5x to 16x in 12 months. The next phase of appreciation for the stock will be driven by estimates marching higher with the current C'14 consensus likely to move from its current level of ~$2.75 to north of $3+ and the C'15 will probably go from $3.09 to $3.50+. Thus, the multiple can contract 10% over the next 12 months and BBY's shares can still return 20%. We think this skews the risk / reward to the upside and recommend buying."

[Related -Best Buy (BBY) Is Fighting Back -- But Is It A Buy?]

UBS now sees fiscal-year (FY) 2014 EPS estimates of $2.45 and FY 2015 EPS of $3.10 versus previous estimates of $2.30 and $2.60, respectively.

We'll find out soon enough if Lasser's hypothesis proves correct as earnings are due next Tuesday, November 19, 2013 (We'll have an EPS preview later – stay tuned.)

Since Lasser focuses on price-to-earnings (P/E) to justify his $49 price target, let's take a look at BBY's recent P/E history and UBS's new EPS estimates to see if we can make the case.

[Related -Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY): CEO Dumping Shares After 224% Gain In 2013]

Best Buy's P/E topped out at 19.78, bottomed out at 5.64, and averaged 12.10 during the last half-decade. With FY 2015 earnings of $3.10, BBY has a potential price range of $17.48 to $61.32 with the five-year low and high P/Es. The electronics sel! ler's shares would trade at $37.51 using the average multiple. In order to hit UBS' $49, BBY needs to trade at 15.08 times Lasser's FY 2015 $3.10 estimate.

Overall: Considering 2015 EPS are expected to increase by 26.53% compared to 2014, according to Lasser, a P/E of 15.08 is more than reasonable, in our view. Keep in mind, however, that UBS' outlook is more aggressive than the current consensus 2014-2015 earnings growth of 14.17%. A 15.08 P/E is still in line with the more conservative view, which means $49 could prove to be conservative, too.

iStock does have one concern, though. Sales are expected to be stagnate year-over-year, which means BBY's earnings growth will have to come via expanding margins. We wonder if management's new policy of matching internet pricing will make it more likely that margins shrink. 

Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Why it’s so dangerous to time the markets

Investor John Hussman is a smart guy. He seems nice. This is nothing personal.

But Hussman is bearish on stocks. He has been for a while. With the S&P 500 up more than 20% this year, he sounds about as pessimistic as he ever has, leading to a big front-page story in Business Insider last weekend. Hussman recently wrote:

I continue to believe that it is plausible to expect the S&P 500 to lose 40-55% of its value over the completion of the present cycle, and suspect that whatever further gains the market enjoys from this point will be surrendered in the first few complacent weeks following the market's peak.

I won't argue with this. Stocks have done well. You could call them pricey. There will be more crashes.

But Hussman has been so sure of his outlook that he's had a substantial "short" position in his flagship fund for years. As the market surged, his returns have been decimated.

The irony is that in the process of preparing for the possibility of a 40% crash, Hussman's fund has almost suffered an actual 40% crash. This is the financial equivalent of burning your house down to avoid any chance of it being damaged in a wildfire.

The gap between S&P 500 returns and Hussman's returns is now so deep that even if his crash predictions come true, it's not at all clear that he'd win. Hussman needs to beat the S&P by more than 100 percentage points just to break even against the index over the last decade. That is a massive hurdle. I don't know if it's ever been done before. (To be fair, Hussman's returns since data collection began in November, 2000 have trailed the S&P 500 by a smaller amount, eight percentage points, according to S&P Capital IQ).

What do we learn from this? Two things.

One, there are two types of risk. The first is what author William Bernstein calls "shallow risk," or a temporary fall in an asset's market price. Stocks fall, maybe by a lot, but recover in a few years and life goes on. The other is "deep risk," or a perm! anent loss that's nearly impossible to recover from. I think there's a growing chance people like Hussman tried to avoid shallow risk, and in the process are now facing deep risk. Because of inflation, real growth and retained earnings, the market has a clear upward bias over the long run, and so missing rallies can be more harmful than getting caught in downturns. Put another way, avoiding a 40% crash leaves you worse off if it also causes you to miss a 170% rally.

Two, there's an old saying in finance: "Do you want to be right, or do you want to make money?" If you're in the punditry business all that matters is "being right." Successfully managing money is different. Rather than attempting to avoid risk, I've come to believe it's far more efficient to accept it, taking the market ups and downs as they come. This means you forgo the glory of getting big calls right, but it increase your chances of making money in the long run.

I wish everyone the best, including Hussman and his investors. Maybe he'll prevail in the end. But remember what President Eisenhower said: "Pessimism never won any battle."

The Motley Fool is a USA TODAY content partner offering financial news, analysis and commentary designed to help people take control of their financial lives. Its content is produced independently of USA TODAY.



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Tuesday, November 12, 2013

J.C. Penney: Kicking Ron Johnson Will Not Make Profits Come Back

J.C. Penney Co. Inc. (NYSE: JCP) reported second-quarter 2013 results before markets opened this morning. The venerable retailer reported an adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) loss of $2.16, as well as $2.66 billion in revenues. In the same period a year ago, J.C. Penney reported an EPS loss of $0.37 on revenue of $3.02 billion. This morning’s results also compare to the Thomson Reuters consensus estimates for an EPS loss of $1.06 and $2.76 billion in revenue.

On a GAAP basis, J.C. Penney posted an EPS loss of $2.66, which includes a $0.99 per share charge for a loss associated with a tax valuation allowance. That hardly makes a difference.

The company's CEO said:

Since I returned to jcpenney four months ago, we have moved quickly to stabilize our business – both financially and operationally – and we have made meaningful progress in important areas of the business. There are no quick fixes to correct the errors of the past. That said, we have identified the challenges, put solid plans in place to address them and have experienced and capable people in key roles to do so. … Moving forward, we're focusing our efforts on regaining customer loyalty by offering trusted brands, award winning service and affordability that families can depend on.

Same-store sales fell 11.9% in the quarter. That awful performance was attributed to "the Company's failed prior merchandising and promotional strategies, which resulted in unusually high markdowns and clearance levels in the second quarter."

That is not all the previous CEO took a few lumps for. J.C. Penney's Home department dragged down same-store sales by 2.4% due to "the lengthy renovation and disappointing re-merchandising" of the department.

Okay, so former CEO Ron Johnson did not have the formula to turn around J.C. Penney's business. We get it. But maybe it is time to stop blaming him for all the company's ills and come up with better ideas than the ones that Johnson was brought in to fix in the first place.

Wisely, the company did not offer any guidance because it really does not have a clue. The consensus analysts' estimates call for a third quarter EPS loss of $0.80 on revenues of $2.96 billion. For the full year, the consensus estimate calls for a loss of $3.49 per share on revenues of $12.32 billion. Those estimates are now consigned to the dustbin of history. The situation will be much worse than that.

Shares are up 1.4% in premarket trading this morning, at $13.40 in a 52-week range of $12.34 to $32.55. Thomson Reuters had a consensus analyst price target of around $16.25 before today's results were announced.