4 Reasons Social Security Is In Trouble - Will You Be, Too?

etra images/Getty Images On Monday, the Social Security Trustees published its annual Trustees Report on the health of the Social Security system. The bottom line has changed very little since last year's report, and the trustees still expect the Trust Funds to empty in 2033. Once the Trust Funds empty, the program will only be able to pay around 77 percent of its scheduled benefits. Still, while the trustees maintain their overall projection for the program, its underlying financials continue to crumble. For one thing, the program's 75-year actuarial deficit increased to 2.88 percent of payroll, up from 2.72 percent last year. For another, the retirement-related Trust Fund -- when considered on its own -- is on the path toward emptying a year sooner than last year's projections. The table below shows the details:

Social Security Trust Fund 2014 Trustees Report 2013 Trustees Report

Retirement Trust Fund	Empties in 2034	Empties in 2035
Disability Trust Fund	Empties in 2016	Empties in 2016
Combined Trust Funds	Empties in 2033	Empties in 2033

What's Driving This Decline? There are at least four key drivers behind Social Security's weakening condition: 1: Falling labor force participation rate. This metric measures the percentage of the U.S. population age 16 and older either working or actively looking for work. Unfortunately, as the chart below from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows, that measure has dropped substantially this century. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Social Security is primarily financed by payroll taxes. The fewer people working (or even looking for work), the smaller the potential wage base to support the program. 2: The relentless rise in the disability rate. The two charts below show the Congressional Budget Office's current and projected disability rates by age, the first for males and the second for females. The disability rates have risen relentlessly since around 1990, and the trends show no sign of stopping. Source: Congressional Budget Office Source: Congressional Budget Office This is a double whammy for Social Security. For one part, the disabled often qualify for Social Security Disability benefits. The more people who are on Social Security Disability, the bigger the strain becomes on that part of the combined Trust Fund. For the other part, people collecting Social Security Disability rarely earn much (if any) income. People who aren't earning income aren't paying into the Social Security system. 3: The aging population. Longevity is a wonderful thing (especially for those of us who aren't getting any younger). Still, the longer people live and the more people who survive into their retirement years, the higher the cost of Social Security will be. The chart below from the Congressional Budget Office shows how the population of those ages 65 and older is expected to grow -- both on its own and as a percentage of the overall U.S. population. Source: Congressional Budget Office Once you stop working in your retirement, you stop paying into Social Security, and instead, you start collecting. Additionally, the longer you live, the higher the total amount the system needs to pay to cover your benefit. 4: Low interest rates. While most of Social Security's income comes from payroll taxes, it also makes money from the interest earned on the Trust Funds. Those Trust Funds are invested in special Treasury bonds, and like any Treasury bond, they mature. In our current low-interest-rate environment, the Social Security Trust Funds are forced to buy lower-interest bonds to replace higher-interest ones that mature. The chart below shows the billions of dollars in annual interest lost since 2010 to lower interest rates: Author's calculations based on data from the Social Security Administration. Social Security is already spending more in benefits than it takes in as payroll tax revenue, and interest is the program's next largest source of income. The longer low interest rates go on, the larger the negative impact those low rates have on the Social Security Trust Fund's solvency. What Can You Do? For those four key reasons, Social Security is, and will continue to be, in trouble. With the Trust Funds expected to empty in 2033, you need to prepare. Your most prudent course is to invest as though you'll need to cover the gap between your expected Social Security benefit and what the program anticipates being able to pay. The sooner you get started, the easier and cheaper it is to get there. With around 19 years before the Trust Funds are expected to empty, you've still got time to build a reasonable plan, but the longer you wait, the tougher it gets. So get moving now. More from Chuck Saletta
•How You Can Retire as a Middle-Class Millionaire •Why a $1 Million Goal for Retirement Still Matters •Are You Planning to Work Until 67? And Will You Be Able To?

CYNK Stock Crushed After Trading Halt Is Lifted

Popular Posts: Apple Earnings Set to Give AAPL Stock a LiftApple’s So-So Quarter Could Kill AAPL’s Mojo3 Global Food & Beverage Giants on the Ropes Recent Posts: CYNK Stock Crushed After Trading Halt Is Lifted Don’t Get Burned by Under Armour Stock Stock Showdown: Ford vs. GM stock View All Posts CYNK Stock Crushed After Trading Halt Is Lifted

CYNK Technology (CYNK) resumed trading Friday, and plenty of shareholders probably wish it hadn’t as they watched CYNK stock plunge nearly 85%.

In what’s been the scandal of the summer, CYNK — a penny stock trading over-the-counter — shot up 25,000% in a matter of days in early July. Then the Securities and Exchange Commission stepped in.

Never mind that the Belize company has no revenue, no assets and one employee. For a short time, CYNK stock had a market cap of $6 billion, which is bigger than about a tenth of all companies in the S&P 500.

That was bound to get the attention of regulators even when it comes to the OTC market, which is largely left to its own and therefore home to all sorts of dodgy companies. The SEC halted trading in CYNK stock on July 11 to investigate “potentially manipulative transactions” and the "accuracy and adequacy of information in the marketplace.”

That’s the same boilerplate language issued by the regulator when it halted trading in some medical marijuana stocks  – such as Grow Life (PHOT) and Advanced Cannabis Solutions (CANN) — earlier this year.

Badly Out of CYNK

CYNK was heavily promoted in social media like Twitter, which helped fuel its growth … as well as concerns that it could be a pump-and-dump scheme. Although there’s no proof CYNK stock is a scam, its rise and fall should still serve as a warning to anyone playing in the penny stock market.

Even if a company is on the up-and-up, a trading halt will absolutely wreck its shares. CYNK fell from $13.90 to $2.50 within 30 minutes after the market opened. PHOT was trading at 50 cents when it was halted. Today it fetches less than 9 cents per share. CANN goes for $4.50, when it used to get $30 per share.

None of this proves that these stocks are pump-and-dump schemes. But that’s what the chart of a pump-and-dump stock sure would look like.

There are so many reasons to run from stocks trading in the OTC market: A lack of liquidity and regulatory oversight; unaudited or absent financial statements; the potential for scams. After a busy summer for the SEC scrutinizing penny stocks, you can add regulatory risk to that list. When the feds put a trading halt on a stock, well … it’s cooked.

CYNK proves yet again that despite the allure of stratospheric gains, the OTC market is really just a casino. And when it comes to casinos, the house always wins.

As of this writing, Dan Burrows did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

3 Future Biotechnology Blockbusters?

The holy grail of drug development is launching a billion-dollar blockbuster therapy, but that isn't easy to do. It costs more than $1 billion to usher compounds through expensive clinical trials (including failures) and just 10% of drugs in pipelines ever make it to market.

The hit-and-miss nature of the industry suggests that only the most sophisticated (and risk-taking) investors should buy biotechnology stocks, but for those who invest in the space there are few things as profit-friendly as catching a billion-dollar blockbuster in the making.

That leads me to Medivation (NASDAQ: MDVN  ) , Ophthotech (NASDAQ: OPHT  ) , and Portola (NASDAQ: PTLA  ) , three companies with important therapies that may very well be destined to become top sellers.

MDVN data by YCharts.

Source: Medivation

Expanding the label
Medivation has the distinction of being the only one of these three companies to have a drug on the market.

The fast-growing Xtandi (a joint product with Astellas) has been nibbling at Johnson & Johnson's heels since winning approval as a treatment for post-chemotherapy metastatic-castration resistant prostate cancer, or mCRPC, in 2012.

Xtandi has already unseated J&J's Zytiga as the market share leader in this small indication, but a much larger payday is coming if the FDA approves Xtandi for use in pre-chemotherapy mCRPC patients.

In December 2012, the FDA approved a similar label expansion for Zytiga, which quickly became a blockbuster. Zytiga's sales totaled $1.7 billion in 2013 and climbed another 45% to $1.07 billion in the first six months of this year.

Xtandi is already being prescribed to pre-chemo patients off-label, and phase 3 trials show that patients using the drug were able to delay chemotherapy by 11.2 months, versus just 2.8 months with the placebo.

The FDA is expected to rule on the label expansion on Sept. 18. If approved, Xtandi revenue will likely jump significantly from the $172 million it notched globally in the first quarter.

Source: Regeneron.

Playing well with others
Ophthotech isn't your typical biotechnology company. Instead of developing a drug that can replace existing therapies, it's working on a drug that can be used alongside them.

The company's Fovista successfully boosted eyesight in patients with wet age-related macular degeneration, or AMD, by 10.6 letters when used alongside Novartis' blockbuster drug Lucentis, versus 6.5 letters for Lucentis alone.

Lucentis racked up $619 million in sales during the second quarter for Novartis, which owns foreign rights to the drug, and more than $4 billion for Novartis and Roche (its U.S. partner on the drug) in 2013. And it's not the only drug Fovista may help work better.

Ophthotech is also studying Fovista alongside Regeneron and Bayer's fast-growing wet-AMD treatment Eylea. Since gaining FDA approval in 2011, Eylea has quickly won away market share from Lucentis, with total global sales clocking in at more than $500 million in the first quarter of this year.

Ophthotech's gamble to position Fovista as an adjunctive treatment rather than a stand-alone drug is already paying off. Last month, Novartis, eager to defend its Lucentis franchise, paid $200 million up front and agreed to pay as much as $1 billion in milestones, plus royalties, to lock up international rights to market Fovista if and when it passes muster with regulators.

Counting on a competitor
It's not often that big drugmakers root for competitors, but that's exactly what's happening with Portola.

Portola is working on a factor Xa decoy, a drug that has the very unique (and important) ability to reverse the anticoagulant effects of the latest factor Xa clot-busting drugs from Johnson & Johnson, Bristol-Myers Squibb, and Daichi.

Johnson & Johnson, which is partnered with Bayer on Xarelto, and Bristol, which is partnered with Pfizer on Eliquis, are already making big money selling their factor Xa alternatives to the side effect-laden warfarin, but sales could truly soar if an effective antidote wins approval.

Johnson's Xarelto sales rose 91% to $361 million in the second quarter, while sales of Bristol and Pfizer's Eliquis jumped from $22 million in the first quarter of 2013 to $106 million in the first quarter of 2014 (the companies have yet to report second-quarter numbers).

Those big-selling drugs will likely soon be joined by another factor Xa anticoagulant made by Daichi, and all those approvals aim to dislodge warfarin's decades-long stranglehold on the market.

That means Portola's reversal drug will be relied upon heavily in hospital settings, but Portola isn't stopping there. It is ushering its own factor Xa drug, betrixaban, through phase 3 trials, positioning it to compete directly against these collaborators.

Source: Portola.

Fool-worthy final thoughts
All three of these companies have significant potential but come with risk.

Xtandi has the potential for label expansion in prostate cancer and may have potential as a breast cancer treatment, but it's Medivation's only drug. Johnson & Johnson in 2013 acquired a potential second-generation version of Xtandi, ARN-509, that was developed in the same lab at UCLA and could someday displace it. Ophthotech and Portola similarly have uninspiring pipeline depth. The only other drug under development at Ophthotech is Zimura, another treatment for AMD. Beyond its factor Xa decoy and factor Xa anticoagulant, Portola's pipeline includes just two other early stage compounds. That said, for aggressive investors willing to take risk, all three companies may deliver significant sales over time that could prove profit-friendly. 

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MTN Group – Buy This Africa Stock for Big Growth

Popular Posts: 4 Monthly Dividend Stocks to BuyMicrosoft Earnings Are In – Nadella’s Turnaround Is Working5 Monthly Dividend Stocks to Buy for Retirement Recent Posts: Lessons From the Past – Walmart Dividend Letter From 1985 MTN Group – Buy This Africa Stock for Big Growth 4 Monthly Dividend Stocks to Buy View All Posts MTN Group – Buy This Africa Stock for Big Growth

Africa is the most promising investment destination of the next 20 years.  And it won't be foreign development aid or Western generosity that makes the continent boom, but rather the doggedness and ingenuity of its own people.  As an investor, you want to be part of this megatrend by owning shares of some of Africa's world-class companies.

Looking at Africa today, you see the same pioneering spirit that defied all odds to settle the American West in the late 1800s.  Consider the story of Liquid Telecom, a phone and internet infrastructure company based in southern Africa.  Liquid has done something that no Western company would have the audacity to do: string fiber-optic cable from South Africa, through Botswana and Zimbabwe, and across the Zambezi river into Zambia, a landlocked country deep in Africa's interior.  All work had to be completed by day — using work lights attracts wild animals, you see — and a section of cable was dug up by elephants and had to be reburied.  (These are not problems faced by Verizon (VZ) or AT&T (T), to say the least.)

Liquid, unfortunately, is not a publically traded company.  But my favorite play on the rise of Africa most certainly is: South African mobile phone operator MTN Group (MTNOY).

MTN Group can be thought of as Africa's AT&T or Verizon Wireless.  It is headquartered in South Africa, but it has more than 200 million customers spanning 22 countries across Africa and the Middle East. And roughly a quarter of its subscribers are from Nigeria, Africa's largest economy — and one of its fastest growing.

Why invest in African mobile phones? Let me count the reasons.

The mobile phone is the single most important possession of the emerging global middle class.  We may think of our phones as primarily a source of entertainment.  But in much of the developing world, a mobile phone is a vital lifeline to the connected world, and even an important medium for money transfers.  Africa will have its booms and busts along the way, but I do not see demand for mobile services abating anytime in the foreseeable future.

Looking at the fundamentals, there is a lot to like about MTN Group stock. Revenues and earnings are up by more than a third since 2008, a period in which growth has been hard to come by in most markets. MTNOY trades at a reasonable price/earnings ratio around 16 and pays a respectable, growing dividend currently yielding 3.8%. In the past five years, it has grown its dividend by about 40%. (Fair warning: Exchange rates can skew ADR payouts.)

Is there anything not to like here?

Well, first I should state the obvious. MTN Group is based in Africa and does business in the world's most dangerous hotspots. It's a leading provider in Syria and Iran, as glaring examples. This is a company that is constantly exposed to macro risk.

But it's also a company that has proved very capable of operating in risky environments over its history. There could be short-term bumps, but overall, MTNOY should be able to navigate whatever unexpected surprises come its way. And its willingness to jump into markets that would give most executives heartburn means it has a first-mover advantage in the countries with the fastest potential growth rates.

Currency fluctuations are also a problem, and weakness in the South African rand have been a major drag on the returns of U.S. investors.  But here too, I expect to see improvement.  The rand is one of the cheapest currencies in the world, according to the Big Mac Index.  U.S. investors should get a nice one-two punch in the next year: a rising stock price in South Africa combined with a rising currency value should make the U.S.-traded ADR shares a solid performer.

Disclosures: Charles Sizemore is long MTNOY.

Charles Lewis Sizemore, CFA, is the editor of Macro Trend Investor and chief investment officer of the investment firm Sizemore Capital Management. Click here to receive his FREE weekly e-letter covering top market insights, trends, and the best stocks and ETFs to profit from today's best global value plays.

Did The NLRB Just Make It Easier For Unions To Organize Walmart?

A decision this week by the National Labor Relations Board could make it much easier for unions to get a foothold in large retailers include Walmart, which has thwarted eorganization efforts by the United Food and Commercial Workers for years.

The board, in a case involving Macy's, ruled that the UFCW can organize a subgroup of workers within a single Massachusetts store. By targeting just 41 cosmetics workers at the 150-employee store in Saugus, the union stands a better chance of winning the required election and establishing a position within the store to try and recruit more workers. It was based upon a 2011 decision involving a nursing home, Specialty Healthcare, that retailers hoped to contain within the healthcare industry.

"These are significant decisions, and put employers in a position where it's much easier to organize" segments of the workplace, said Gerard Golden, a partner with Neal Gerber Eisenberg in Chicago who frequently represents employers in union negotiations. "Typically a union had to organize all the employees in a related sales position in order to hold an election."

Walmart is the largest U.S. private employer with 1 million workers and thus is a big target for the UFCW, not only because of the dues it would collect from unionized employees but because it could eventually put Walmart on the hook for its critically underfunded pension fund. Kroger Kroger agreed to pay almost $1 billion to shore up several UFCW pension plans in 2011, in an agreement that also allowed it to take over financial management of the troubled funds.

Would a union fix this? (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The union has tried to organize Walmart before, losing a 17-0 vote on unionizing an automotive department of a Pennsylvania store in 2005. Since then the union has mostly engaged in a cat-and-mouse game with Walmart, using front groups like OUR Walmart to snipe at the company with news releases like this one hailing the resignation of former U.S. chief executive Bill Simon, and this union-issued report deriding the billions of dollars Walmart heirs have given to charity.

The union aggressively supported walkouts and protests on Black Friday in 2012, then urged the NLRB to discipline Walmart for threatening workers who left their jobs. The NLRB filed a complaint against Wal-Mart earlier this year  accusing it of unlawfully threatening workers who engaged in strikes and protests.

Walmart has fired back, accusing the UFCW and OUR Walmart of illegally picketing the company. After the labor board threatened to take action, OUR Walmart agreed to stop picketing for 60 days and the UFCW said it "has no intent to have Walmart recognize or bargain with it as the representatives of Walmart employees." Undeterred, OUR Walmart called for   "one of the largest mobilizations of working families in American history" on Black Friday last year. Neither Walmart nor the union responded to requests for comment.

Under the previous understanding of labor law, Golden said, Walmart could present the union with a tough strategic choice: Shoot the moon and try to organize entire stores or even entire regions, or hang back and wait for its efforts through groups like OUR Walmart to convince enough workers to side with the union. If a union holds an election and fails, it can't make another attempt for a year.

Until the Macy's Macy's decision there was only one precedent for allowing piecemeal organization of a retailer, and that involved the automotive department of a Sears store. The previous understanding of the law gave Walmart "a potential argument that one store standing alone isn't a sufficient bargaining unit," Golden said, because multiple stores in a state or region might be under one management, with identical pay and incentive programs.

The board rejected that theory in the Macy's decision, however, saying that under the Specialty Healthcare ruling, which was upheld by the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals, the employer has the burden of showing that a bargaining unit is too small and that a larger group shares the "community of interests" labor laws require. That removes much of the discretion the NLRB had to reject small bargaining units and makes it harder for employers to argue against unionizing subgroups of the work force.

The decision represents the power of Democratic appointees who took charge at the board after the President's recess appointments were rejected. The chairman Mark Gaston Pierce wrote the opinion and was joined by Nancy Schiffer, a former AFL-CIO assistant general counsel, and Kent Y. Hirozawa. Philip Miscimarra, a Republican appointee, wrote a dissent urging the board not only to refuse to recognize a subgroup of retail employees but not to follow the reasoning in Specialty Healthcare in future rulings.

"Specialty Healthcare constitutes an unwarranted departure from standards developed over the course of decades," he said.

Among other things, the ruling might make it hard for retailers to move employees around within a store and cause workplace strife by forcing the employer to adopt different pay practices for workers doing essentially identical jobs.

Week's Winners & Losers: Airlines Soared, Toymakers Tottered

www.hasbro.com There were plenty of winners and losers this week, including a major airline doing something that it hasn't done in 34 years and more toymakers cutting play time short. Here's a rundown of the week's smartest moves and biggest blunders. American Apparel (APP) -- Loser Some retailers are struggling more than others. American Apparel is shaking up its board to try to get a new lease on life, and one of the appointments announced this week was adding RadioShack (RSH) CEO Joseph Magnacca. Really? RadioShack is one of the few publicly traded retailers with a lower stock price than American Apparel. It's losing gobs of money and closing down stores. Is that really the kind of vision that American Apparel needs in the boardroom? Perhaps more importantly, should RadioShack's CEO be spreading himself thin this way at a time when his own company is struggling just to survive? American Airlines Group (AAL) -- Winner There were a lot of milestones achieved by the parent company of American Airlines and US Airways on Thursday. The biggest takeaway from its report is that the adjusted profit of $1.5 billion that it reported for its latest quarter is an all-time record for the once-struggling air carrier. The acquisition of US Airways last year and improving industry fundamentals have gone a long way to improving its fiscal viability. However, American Airlines Group also initiated a quarterly dividend of 10 cents a share. That may not seem like much, but it's the first time that the airline has offered a cash distribution since 1980. Wow. That was back when folks could still smoke in the back of the plane, and it didn't cost extra to check your luggage. It's not the only way that American Airlines Group is returning its money to its shareholders. Backed by its healthy profitability, its board cleared the way for a $1 billion stock buyback. Airlines have historically been a wealth destroyer. The cyclical swings in the business can get fierce. However, sector consolidation and an improving global economy make it a compelling place for investors to be in the near term. Toymakers -- Loser This was another hard week for the makers of traditional playthings. Hasbro (HAS) shares took a hit on Monday after posting a 12 percent decline in game sales. Other categories were more than enough to offset the weakness in games, but the stock still took a nearly 3 percent stumble on the report. Two days later it was JAKKS Pacific (JAKK) shares experiencing a nearly 14 percent plunge after it posted uninspiring results. When you combine these two reports with Mattel (MAT) falling out of favor last Friday thanks to a 15 percent drop in Barbie sales, it's easy to get worried about the state of traditional toymakers as we stroll toward the holiday shopping season. Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) -- Winner We're seeing a lot of eateries drum up excuses for why patrons aren't eating at their establishments anymore, but then we have Chipotle reminding us that it's doing just fine. The fast-casual darling posted blowout quarterly results this week with revenue soaring 29 percent to surpass $1 billion for the first time. It's not just expansion driving the spike in sales. Comparable-restaurant sales jumped 17.3 percent for the quarter. Chipotle's net income of $3.50 a share landed well ahead of the $3.09 a share that the pros were targeting. Chipotle doesn't need scapegoats when it's rolling like its signature burritos. General Motors (GM) -- Loser Another week, another major GM auto recall. The automaker giant is calling back another 717,950 vehicles to correct more safety issues. More than half of the cars in Wednesday's recall involve a potentially defective bolt that adjusts the height of car seats. GM is aware of only a couple of injuries resulting from the bad bolt, but it's yet another embarrassment for the car manufacturer. GM is now closing in on 30 million cars being recalled this year. It's not just about the near-term financial hit as recall-related costs swallowed up most of GM's profits in its latest quarter. At some point, all of these reports have to hurt the perceived quality of GM's cars. More from Rick Aristotle Munarriz
•Norway Is Giving Disney the Cold Shoulder Over 'Frozen' •An Old Favorite May Save Apple from Being All About iPhones •Disney Wants You to See Dumbo Fly Again - in Live Action

Emerging markets at 17-month high: 5 things to know

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Emerging-markets stocks have jumped to their highest level in nearly 17 months.

The closely watched iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM)   finished Wednesday at $44.76, its best close since January 2013.

What's driving the rally? What's next? Here are five things to know.

1. Upbeat Chinese reports help: Better economic reports from the biggest emerging market, China, deserve a lot of credit, according to Russ Koesterich, BlackRock's global chief investment strategist.

"The recent improvement in Chinese economic data has provoked the beginning of a rotation back into emerging markets (EMs)," Koesterich wrote in his latest weekly investment commentary. "Last week was the sixth consecutive week of inflows into EMs, which suggests sentiment toward the asset class is starting to turn." Read more: China Q2 GDP beats, 'hard landing' seen as distant risk

Koesterich has said his team prefers Asian equities in particular, and they're neutral on the broad category of EM stocks.

2. Watch for more talk about looking outside the U.S.: Keep an eye out for chatter about how stock investors have begun to venture abroad — and how emerging-market equities are relatively cheap.

That's the prediction offered by Michael Batnick at his Irrelevant Investor blog. He notes the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, after underperforming the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)  for years, has advanced 20% from its February low.

Given that "stories tend to follow price, I am 100% certain that if this action continues, we are going to hear some very interesting theories," writes Batnick , who is Ritholtz Wealth Management's research director.

"I imagine it will go something like this: 'Attractive valuations coupled with severe under performance and fears over the end of the Taper, it's no wonder investors have started to look outside the United States.'"

Some market watchers already have been talking up the attractive valuations, from Aberdeen Asset Management in April to Jeff Reeves in June.

3. You might not want to buy EEM: The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF — shown in the adjacent chart — gets lots of attention, but EEM isn't for everyone.

/quotes/zigman/322623/delayed/quotes/nls/eem EEM 44.76, +0.04, +0.09%

This ETF is "the choice for institutional investors and active traders thanks to its robust liquidity and deep options market," write analysts at ETF.com. The analysts' top pick for the EM segment, especially for long-term investors? It's the iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG) , which has an expense ratio of just 0.18% versus EEM's 0.67%.

ETF.com also describes the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO)  as a "very strong choice," noting that it excludes South Korea while EEM and IEMG include that nation. Keep in mind that there are also more-targeted EM ETFs , like one that promises exposure to the developing world via blue-chip companies based in the developed world.

4. Russia's retreat hasn't stopped the EM rally: Russia is a huge emerging market, but so far the slide by Russian equities on Ukraine-related worries hasn't been enough to hold back the broad EM ETFs.

It's worth noting that Russia accounts for only about 5% of EEM. Latin America and China each account for 18%, and the Middle East and Africa together make up 9%. Read more about Mideast investing: 5 things to know about Saudi Arabia's market.

While Vladimir Putin might sneer at weakness, EEM's exposure to the so-called "Fragile Five" actually has helped offset its exposure to Russia. That's the label given to the five emerging-market nations of Turkey, India, Indonesia, Brazil and South Africa. This year, the Fragile Five have become the Fantastic Five, as a DealBook post put it.

5. Chart watchers wary of the $45 level: The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF peaked around the $45 mark in January 2013, and it also turned tail around that level in 2012.

The ETF is "hitting key resistance," said Dave Lutz of Jones Trading in his "What Traders Are Watching" note on Wednesday.

"Keep an eye on the EEM (Emerging Markets) here," he added. It's "gapped toward 45" after having "failed there in 2012 and 2013."

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Oracle Continues to Be One the Most Profitable Business-Software Company

In this article, let´s see one of the most important financial ratios applying to stockholders, the best measure of performance for a firm's management: the Return on Equity (ROE), and we are going to analyze it in the case of Oracle Corporation (ORCL), the leading provider of enterprise technology solutions, offering software, services and hardware.ROE is calculated as net income applicable to common shares divided by the average book value of common equity: ROE = Net Income / Av. Book ValueA higher ROE is viewed as a positive aspect for the company, but the reason behind it should be examine. From the equation above, we can see that if book value is decreasing more rapidly than net income, the ratio will increase, but this is not good for the firm.Dupont AnalysisThis approach can be used to analyze the ROE. With some algebra we can break down ROE into a function of different ratios. Firstly, we are going to consider the original approach:Original Dupont Equation: Three-Part DupontTaking the ROE equation: ROE = net income / shareholder's equity and multiplying ROE by (revenue / revenue), and rearranging terms we get:ROE = (net income / revenue) * (revenue / shareholder's equity)We now have ROE broken into two parts, the first is net profit margin, and the second is the equity turnover ratio. Now we can expand this by multiplying these terms by (assets / assets), and rearranging we end up with the three-step DuPont equation.ROE = (Net Income / Revenue) * (Revenue / Assets) * (Assets / Shareholder's Equity)This equation for ROE breaks it into three widely used and studied components:ROE = (Net profit margin)* (Asset Turnover) * (Leverage ratio)The first term is what we called previously net profit margin, the second term is asset turnover and the third tem is a financial leverage ratio. If we have a low ROE, one of the following must be true:The firm has a poor profit marginThe firm has a poor asset turnoverThe firm has a little leverage

ROE (%! ) 3 Step	May-05	May-06	May-07	May-08	May-09	May-10	May-11	May-12	May-13	May-14
Net Profit Margin	24.46	23.51	23.75	24.61	24.05	22.87	23.99	26.89	29.38	28.62
Asset Turnover	0.57	0.5	0.52	0.48	0.49	0.44	0.48	0.47	0.45	0.42
Leverage	1.92	1.92	2.04	2.04	1.89	2.00	1.85	1.79	1.82	1.92
ROE	26.63	22.52	25.26	23.98	22.29	19.92	21.49	22.85	24.47	23.37

Final CommentAs outlined in the article, a key ratio used to determine management efficiency is the ROE. Let´s see the evolution on the next chart:As we can appreciate, the ROE has increased and it can be attributed to the rise in profitability as measured by the Net Profit Margin and the decline in financial leverage, which I think it is a very good thing and based on it I would recommend this stock. Further, the ROE of Oracle is ranked higher than 95% of the 1548 Companies in the Software - Infrastructure industry.Hedge fund gurus have also been active in the company. Gurus like Louis Moore Bacon (Trades, Portfolio), Steven Cohen (Trades, Portfolio) and James Barrow (Trades, Portfolio) have bought the stock in the first quarter of 2014.Disclosure: Omar Venerio holds no position in any stocks mentioned.Also check out: James Barrow Undervalued Stocks James Barrow Top Growth Companies James Barrow High Yield stocks, and Stocks that James Barrow keeps buying Louis Moore Bacon Undervalued Stocks Louis Moore Bacon Top Growth Companies Louis Moore Bacon High Yield stocks, and Stocks that Louis Moore Bacon keeps buying

Currently 3.00/512345 Rating: 3.0/5 (2 votes)

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Hong Kong stocks hold some gains after China data

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Hong Kong stocks trimmed their gains but held to positive territory Wednesday after data showing China's economic growth accelerated to 7.5% in the second quarter, ticking up from a 7.4% gain in the first quarter. The Hang Seng Index (HK:HSI) inched up 0.2%, off slightly from a 0.3% advance ahead of the data, while the Shanghai Composite Index (CN:SHCOMP) dipped 0.1%. Mainland Chinese power companies posted broad gains, with Huadian Power International Corp. (HK:1071) rallying 4.2% after the company forecast its profit for the first six months of the year would jump 55% to 65% from a year earlier. Other stocks in the sector also attracted investors' interest, with Datang International Power Generation Co. (HK:0991) (DIPGF) (CN:601991) and Huaneng Power International Inc. (HK:0902) (HUNGF) (CN:600011) gaining 2.3% and 1.6%, respectively. Menswear maker China Fordoo Holdings Ltd. (HK:2399) rose 1% on its first day of trading. However, most software and gaming companies declined, with Kingdee International Software Group (HK:0268) (KGDEF) losing 1.4%, bigger rival Kingsoft Corp. (HK:3888) (KSFTF) falling 0.9%, and Forgame Holdings Ltd. (HK:0484) off 0.8%.

2014 Sales Tax Holidays for Back-to-School Shopping

It might seem hard to believe that the back-to-school shopping season already is upon us. In some places, summer break just started a few weeks ago. But in many areas of the country, kids will be heading back to the classroom in early August. That means parents need to start finding room in their budgets now for paper, pencils, backpacks, clothing and other items.

SEE ALSO: 12 Things College Students Don't Need

One way to soften the blow of back-to-school shopping on your wallet is to take advantage of sales-tax holidays. This year at least 16 states will have sales-tax holidays in July or August that will allow consumers to make noncommercial purchases of certain school-related items such as clothing, computers and school supplies tax-free. Note that North Carolina drops off the list this year because its legislators repealed the state's tax holiday effective July 1.

Each state has its own rules about which items are exempt as well as price limits for items. Be sure you understand eligibility guidelines before you hit stores. As well, a few states allow localities to decide whether they want to participate in the sales-tax holiday. To find out which states will have sales-tax holidays and what will be exempt from taxes, see the list below.

JULY

Mississippi: July 25-26. Purchases of clothing and footwear less than $100 per item exempt. The cities of Crenshaw, Enterprise and Heidelberg aren't participating.More details.

AUGUST

Alabama: August 1-3. Purchases of computers (single purchase up to $750), clothing (up to $100 per item), school supplies ($50 per item) and books ($30 per item) exempt. See a complete list of tax-exempt items. Several localities plan to collect local sales taxes during the tax holiday but not state sales taxes.

Arkansas: August 2-3. Purchases of clothing and footwear less than $100 per item, clothing accessories less than $50 per item and school supplies are exempt. See a complete list of tax-exempt items.

Connecticut: August 17-23. Purchases of clothing and footwear less than $300 per item exempt. See examples of tax-free items.

Florida: August 1-3. Purchases of clothing (up to $100 per item), school supplies (up to $15 per item), and computers and computer accessories (applies to the first $750 per item) exempt. See a list of tax-exempt items.

Georgia: August 1-2. Purchases of clothing (up to $100 per item), computers and related accessories (up to $1,000 per item) and school supplies ($20 per item) exempt. More details.

Iowa: August 1-2. Purchases of clothing and footwear less than $100 per item exempt. See a complete list of tax-exempt items.

Louisiana: August 1-2. The exemption applies to the state sales tax on the first $2,500 of the purchase price of most individual items. Local sales taxes may apply. More details.

Maryland: August 10-16. Purchases of clothing and footwear $100 or less per item exempt. See a list of exempt items.

Missouri: August 1-3. Purchases of clothing (up to $100 per item), computers and computer peripherals (up to $3,500), computer software (up to $350) and school supplies (up to $50 per purchase) exempt. Local taxes may apply. More details.

New Mexico: August 1-3. Purchases of clothing (less than $100 per item), school supplies (less than $30 per item), computers ($1,000 limit) and computer hardware ($500 limit) exempt. See a list of tax-exempt items.

Oklahoma: August 1-3. Purchases of clothing and footwear less than $100 per item exempt. See a list of tax-exempt items.

South Carolina: August 1-3. All purchases of clothing, footwear, computers, linens and school supplies exempt. See a list of tax-exempt items.

Tennessee: August 1-3. Purchases of clothing ($100 or less per item), computers ($1,500 or less) and school supplies ($100 or less per item) exempt. More details.

Texas: August 8-10. Purchases of clothing, footwear, backpacks and school supplies less than $100 per item exempt. More details.

Virginia: August 1-3. Purchases of clothing and footwear ($100 or less per item) and school supplies ($20 or less per item) exempt. See a list of tax-exempt items.

Canadian Solar Inc. (CSIQ): Going to $40 Says FBR capital

On an otherwise red day, Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ:CSIQ) is bobbing higher, up nearly 1% as we type. The alternative energy company is the beneficiary to two positive news items to start the post 4th of July trading week.

First, CSIQ announced that its wholly owned subsidiary, Canadian Solar Solutions Inc., on Monday, June 30, completed the sale of the 10 MW AC Val Caron solar power plant ("Val Caron") valued at over C$60 million to One West Holdings Ltd., an affiliate of Concord Green Energy ("Concord"). The Val Caron 10 MW AC solar power plant is located in the city of Greater Sudbury, Ontario.

[Related -Canadian Solar Inc. (CSIQ) Q1 Earnings Preview: Sun Usually Doesn't Shine]

It is the first of five planed solar project sales to Concord Green Energy, says Dr. Shawn Qu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Canadian Solar.

Piggy backing on the sale news, FBR Capital upgraded Canadian Solar to an "Outperform" recommendation from "Market Perform" while maintaining their $40 price-target, which is potential upside to target of 29.24% as of this keystroke.

FBR made the call because the analyst believes the market is undervaluing the company's diverse project pipeline.

Canadian Solar Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells solar wafers, cells, and solar module products worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Module and Project. Its products include various solar modules that are used in residential, commercial, and industrial solar power generation systems.

[Related -Canadian Solar Inc. (CSIQ) Q4 Earnings Preview: What To Watch?]

On a price-to-sales (P/S) basis, FBR Capital has a point. Canadian Solar is under-priced relative to its peer group. The average sun stock trades at 2.79 times sales while CSIQ trades at 0.87 times revenue.

Since 2009, investors have been willing to pay an average of 0.53 times sales for CSIQ with a range of 0.05 to 2.44. So, the "green" energy maker might be undervalued relative to peers the current price is well above the norm on a P/S basis.

For 2015, the street sees sales of $3.35 billion. At CSIQ's five-year average P/S ratio, the stock would price out at $33.73. It looks a lot better with the industry average at $177.56. To hit $40 requires a P/S ratio of 1.59, which could be a little rich.

From a chart-watcher's perspective, $35 looks like a better target is it would complete a triangle pattern. Get above $35 and $40 does offer resistance, but a run at the 52-week high of $44.50 is just as likely post -$35 as $40. That being said, the recent run-up has not been confirmed by rising volume, which means Canadian Solar could slip if sellers show up in moderate strength. 

Why Have Small Tech Company IPOs Disappeared?

The first half of 2014 saw 30 technology company IPOs in the United States, including such firms as software-as-a-service company Paycom Software, cloud-based software company Castlight Health, and UK-based interactive games company King Digital Entertainment King Digital Entertainment. The 30 first half technology IPOs are at an annualized rate of 60 deals, which would be the most since 2007. Yet, in spite of a stock market near record highs, this level of tech company IPOs is only about half of the 116 in an average year during 1980-2000, in spite of real GDP more than doubling from the early 1980s until now. Why aren't more tech companies going public?

The conventional wisdom is that public companies are suffering from excessive regulation, although the JOBS Act of 2012 attempted to lesson some of the burdens on Emerging Growth Companies, defined to be companies with less than $1 billion in annual sales that have been public for less than five years. The decline in small company IPOs started five years before the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 was passed, however. There is truth to the excessive regulation story, but I think that there is more going on that cannot be affected by legislators.

Why Tim Draper Sunk $18 Million into Bitcoin

When a successful, well-known venture capitalist like Tim Draper is investing in Bitcoin with some $18 million of his own money, you know he must have a really good reason.

Draper was the sole winner of the 29,656 bitcoins auctioned off June 27 by the U.S. Marshals Service. Those bitcoins had been seized by the federal authorities that shut down the notorious Silk Road website last fall.

He beat out 44 other registered bidders of an impressive group that included SecondMarket's Barry Silbert, the Winklevoss twins, CoinBase, and Pantera Bitcoin.

The winning bid has not been disclosed, but the stash was worth about $17 million on the day of the auction, when the Bitcoin price was about $570.

Since Draper won all the bitcoins, he almost certainly bid above that price. A relatively conservative bid of $600 would have cost Draper a cool $18 million. Today (Wednesday) the Bitcoin price is about $622, making the stash worth about $18.4 million.

But Draper, a founding partner of Draper Fisher Jurvetson, isn't worried about such day-to-day fluctuations; he says he's investing in Bitcoin because of its potential to disrupt the financial world.

Bitcoin Will Be as Transformative as the Internet

"I think Bitcoin is as big a transformation to the finance and commerce industry as the Internet was for information and communications," Draper told FOX Business on Tuesday. "I'm very excited about Bitcoin and what it can do for the world. It's going to open up the world in an even bigger way than the Internet did."

Such talk echoes what other prominent Bitcoin venture capitalists have been saying, most notably Marc Andreessen, a co-founder of Netscape and a partner with Andreessen Horowitz.

And like Andreessen, what Draper says and does carries a lot of weight in venture capital circles.

He's been a venture capitalist for 28 years, having learned the ropes from his father and grandfather, William Draper, who is considered the tech industry's very first venture capitalist. (Tim's son, Adam, is also a venture capitalist.)

And over the years he's built up a very impressive track record, having invested in Skype, Hotmail, Box, SolarCity Corp. (Nasdaq: SCTY), Tesla Motors Inc. (Nasdaq: TSLA) and Chinese search engine company Baidu Inc. (Nasdaq: BIDU), just to name a few.

Now that Draper is investing in Bitcoin - and not just through his venture capital firm, but with his own money - it's a good indication that the digital currency will make its mark on the tech world as did many of his other investments.

And as one might expect, Draper has some very specific plans for his new investment in Bitcoin - and it's not the usual payment processors or Bitcoin mining companies you would assume.

Why Draper Is Investing in Bitcoin Now

One of the uses of Bitcoin that Draper is most excited about is how it could help people in emerging markets.

"Bitcoin is a great alternative for some of these economies where inflation really saps the strength of a country's economy," Draper told CNBC on Monday. "I expect Pagos in Argentina, Pagatech in Africa, and in Mexico, Coincove - all these [Bitcoin] companies will really thrive because people in those countries are not as confident in their own governments' fiat currency."

Putting his venture capital where his mouth is, Draper has invested in Pagatech through another of his VC firms, Draper Associates.

And in May Draper was part of a group that invested $4 million in a startup called Vaurum, a company designed to facilitate the use of Bitcoin by financial institutions, particularly in emerging markets.

"With the help of Vaurum and this newly purchased Bitcoin, we expect to be able to create new services that can provide liquidity and confidence to markets that have been hamstrung by weak currencies," Draper said in a statement.

Basically, Draper is planning to use his investment in Bitcoin to help jump-start the revolution in finance that he envisions.

"It's money that can now be put to good use," Draper told the Financial Times. "A lot of people are hoarding their Bitcoins. I can allow it to proliferate throughout the world. This is a long-term, big opportunity for the world."

Have you begun to invest in Bitcoin yet? Are you planning to? Do you agree with Tim Draper that Bitcoin will revolutionize world finance? Tell us what you think on Twitter @moneymorning or Facebook.

UP NEXT: Some are wary about investing in Bitcoin because of the sometimes wild price gyrations. There's no doubt that's true, but with Bitcoin -- as with the stock market -- a long-term view can help put such volatility into perspective. These two charts show why the Bitcoin price will soon start to accelerate to the upside...

Related Articles:

Financial Times: Draper to Use Bitcoin Hoard to Fund New Marketplace FOX Business: Why Tim Draper Bought All Those Bitcoins CNBC: Why VC Tim Draper Bought All Those Bitcoins

China's Top 10 U.S. States For Investments

China is fast becoming a major exporter of capital.

Everyone has heard about the Chinese buying up land in Africa to tap the country's cheap natural resources.  But what about China firms buying AMC Cinema for $2.6 billion in 2012? Or Smithfield Farms for $4.7 billion last year? China wants American technological know-how, it wants American consumers, and it wants natural resources.

On July 9 and 10, Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew and Secretary of State John Kerry will be in Beijing to discuss opening up both markets to even more investment. Washington is hot for Chinese capital.  The Obama Administration has made foreign direct investment, an a so-called "Asian tilt", part of the country's economic foreign policy.  To achieve that, Lew and Kerry are off to Beijing for the sixth annual Strategic and Economic Dialogue to discuss a bilateral investment treaty.

Road blocks remain, though.

The U.S. has an uneven playing field, going up against large state owned enterprises (SEO) that have subsidies U.S. competitors don't have.  China continues to play offense, while the U.S. is mostly on defense — pushing China to reform its foreign exchange rate policies, get tougher on cyber crime and protection of intellectual property, and open its markets to favored sectors of the U.S. economy, like financial services.

But as the two sides shake hands and back stab during the course of their discussions, U.S. states are welcoming Chinese capital.

"Signing a bilateral investment treaty is a good thing for the U.S.," says Neil Asbury, CEO of the Legacy Companies, a food service equipment manufacturer.  "This is good for China, but it is really good for us," he says.

Here is a look at the top 10 recipients of China money over the last fourteen years, according to data compiled by the Rhodium Group.

Where China Invests In America

Byron Wein Sees New Industrial Revolution

Market Commentary

by Byron Wien

The Smartest Man in Europe Sees a New Industrial Revolution

People often ask me if I have a mentor, someone who has influenced my thinking over my career. I have had many, but over the past thirty years I have learned a great deal about investing from the person I have come to refer to as The Smartest Man in Europe. The most important lessons he taught me were (1) that the primary force behind good performance is recognizing important changes before or just as they are starting to happen, and (2) when something significant is happening, put a lot of money behind it. Concentrate on the big ideas; don't over-diversify.

The Smartest Man earned his title over the years by recognizing important shifts early. He saw the rise and fall of Japan in the 1980s and he was early in recognizing the investment significance of the reforms Deng Xiaoping was putting in place in China. He saw opportunities and then risks in emerging markets and technology in the 1990s and he was among the first in my sphere to see the coming of the break-up of the former Soviet Union and its meaning for investors. He has a mercantile background and hundreds of years ago his ancestors sold food, supplies and weather protection to travelers along the Silk Road. He grew up hearing talk of investment opportunities around the dinner table. He received a European education and, after an apprenticeship in New York, returned home to take advantage of the post-war recovery taking place there. I have written annually about his views since 2001.

"There is a new industrial revolution taking place around the world based on innovation. It is centered in California but there are pockets of it elsewhere in the United States and in a few places abroad. There are creative new companies being formed every day. Investors underestimate the significance of this change. It is not only in Internet-based technology, but also in biotechnology. Over the next few years you will see blockbuster products being approved for cancer and heart disease. Alzheimer's and Parkinson's are proving harder to deal with. In information technology the primary beneficiaries will be Google, Facebook, Salesforce.com, Microsoft, Amazon, LinkedIn and a few others, but not Twitter, which I view as a company feeding off the primary companies driving the change. These new companies are making IBM a corporate leader of the past. The drivers are changing the way manufacturing is being done, inventories and transportation are being handled and all forms of communication are taking place. The earnings for these companies are open-ended. In biotechnology the new products will extend life and reduce invasive surgery, and who can say how much that is worth? This is all very exciting and should be the focus of every investor's attention. You can invest in an industrial or consumer company where the earnings are growing 5%–10% annually, but these companies based on technological breakthroughs should do much better than that, and their valuations are still reasonable, in my opinion.

"Overall I see the United States growing at about 2% in real terms. To grow at 3% you would need another building boom and I don't see that happening anytime soon. The use of robotics will improve the productivity of industrial companies and profit margins will stay high, but it will be hard to bring down the unemployment rate. Technology is good news for the world because everything can be done more efficiently, but the bad news is that this means it takes fewer workers to perform the services or make the goods, and the only way to create jobs is through faster growth, which is hard to achieve in a mature economy. Take the banking industry, for example. Thousands of jobs have been lost there and the staff reductions aren't over. We have to learn to live with a higher level of unemployment and there are social and political issues associated with that.

"There is a further problem in that the broader use of technology has made the skills necessary to get and hold a good job more demanding. You will need a fine education and even then it will be tough to find a satisfying job. Many young people are not working in the areas they were trained for. Those who are employed in their desired field will find their wages going up very slowly. As for the inequality problem, I am not hopeful. It has been a part of society since the beginning of time, and now that business is increasingly knowledge-based, it is likely that the problem will get worse and I don't think much can be done about it.

"The broad market will probably not have a major move over the intermediate term, but the innovators will do well. From time to time there will be surges in certain sectors. The homebuilders had their day, now energy and oil service stocks are doing better, but the secular move higher will be accomplished by the innovators. Everyone is worried about interest rates increasing, but that is not likely to happen. Rates may go up slightly in the developed countries from present low levels, but there is so much money looking for a safe place to wait until the outlook becomes clearer that I don't expect yields on quality sovereign or corporate debt to move substantially above present levels.

"Germany is a curse. Europe needs more money to stimulate its growth. Europe is out of the deflationary recession that was caused by the austerity programs that Germany supported, but it is only growing at 1% now. It needs a dose of quantitative easing to grow faster, but Mario Draghi, the head of the European Central Bank (ECB), refuses to provide it. He has been encouraged by his German advisers to be wary of inflation, but more people in Europe are worried about deflation than inflation. The inflation rate in Europe is less than 2%. Monetary easing would be good for the economies across the continent. A few weeks ago the ECB announced some minor accommodative steps, but they were insufficient to have any profound impact. There is one circumstance that could cause the ECB to ease monetary policy in a major way and that would be if the economy of Germany starts to slow down. I think that is likely to happen in the next year, and then you could see Angela Merkel prevailing on Mario Draghi to liberalize monetary policy.

"As for the other countries in Europe: I think François Hollande will be re-elected in France. I do see Europe shifting somewhat to the right politically, but I don't think France will elect a far right candidate. It is basically a socialist country and probably will remain so. I have some renewed hope for Italy. They have a new reform-minded prime minister there and he is determined to restore growth to the economy. He hopes to do this by reducing regulation and removing the barriers that prevent workers from entering certain trades, thereby increasing labor mobility. I hope his program will work. Spain is clearly coming out of its housing collapse–induced recession. The industrial economy is doing well, foreign capital is coming back and sun-seekers are returning to the resort areas. Tourists are also going to Greece; hotel bookings there are up 45%. Portugal is benefiting from the economic recovery in Spain. Of them all France is the most unpredictable. The United Kingdom is surprising us by doing so well, but it is primarily because of the housing boom taking place there. Eventually the Bank of England will have to raise interest rates to slow housing down and that will have a dampening effect on the whole economy. The big real estate boom in London is fueled mainly by Russian and Middle East buyers, as everyone knows.

"One of the problems of Europe beyond its economic woes is that it has limited power politically. It fears Russia and would like to have imposed tougher sanctions on the country, but its economic interests would have suffered a negative impact if they did that. So it stood by and watched Russia take aggressive action in Ukraine and annex Crimea. Putin is only held back from going further in trying to reassemble parts of the former Soviet Union by the awareness that if there is widespread bloodshed there, the world could turn on him. If he were patient, he might get what he wants without a fight. Ukraine is going to need $30 billion to sustain itself over the next two years. It is unlikely that the West is going to put up that kind of money to support a country they didn't care all that much about in the first place. But Putin will put up the money because it is in his direct interest to do so. In the current world, money may be more important than military power in achieving geopolitical objectives. People are tired of fighting and losing lives for other people's causes.

"The United States is an example of that. It is weary of the wars it has been waging in the Middle East for a decade or more with little to show for it in terms of establishing democracies there. The U.S. was naïve to think it could establish democracies in areas that are so strongly tribal in nature. The probable solution for Iraq is that it will be broken into three parts – Kurdish, Shiite and Sunni. The country could only be run as a single entity by a strongman, as Saddam Hussein was and Malaki is not. We see that in Egypt where el-Sisi has virtually destroyed the Muslim Brotherhood that previously was in power. Afghanistan is a lost country. Al-Qaeda is setting up cells there and I don't think the U.S. can stop it.

"I also am not hopeful the Israelis and the Palestinians can achieve a peace accord anytime soon. The hawks are in control on both sides. The Palestinians want all of their territory back, the closing of the settlements and the right of return in order to recognize Israel and the Israelis are not likely to agree to that, so the stalemate is probably going to continue. Israel is one of those places where technology innovation is vibrant. Much of the creative work is coming from people whose basic education took place in Russia. With all of its problems Russia still has the best public education system in the world. You hear a lot about the oligarchs, but the society there is based on status – your education, your job – more than money. The Russian economy is suffering because Putin spent so much on defense and didn't diversify the economy beyond energy.

"I am optimistic that there will be some agreement which will result in Iran pulling back from its nuclear weapons development program. There are too many young people in that country who know what is happening elsewhere in the world and they want to be part of it. The clerics cannot hold them back indefinitely. The sanctions are hurting and everyone but the very top leadership wants them removed. The real story in Iran and throughout the Arab world is that 70% of the population is under 30 and these younger people want change and the prospect of a better life. If the sanctions were lifted there would be enormous foreign direct investment in Iran and a huge boom. I don't have much hope for Syria. Al-Assad and his oppressive regime are there to stay. The northeast could be broken off and become a part of Iraq, however.

"Eventually I see oil production in the Middle East returning to pre-conflict levels and even moving higher. I agree with you, however, that increased production will not be enough to meet the demands of the developing world – especially India and China – and I see oil prices heading somewhat higher. As for gold, it has now been established as an asset class although it is not one embraced in Europe and the United States. It is a part of almost all institutional platforms in India and many other places in Asia. I think it has formed a base here at current levels, but I don't know when it will move substantially higher. I think at least a small amount of gold should be in all portfolios.

"I think the election of Modi in India without a run-off is a very positive development. He appears to be a real reformer, which is what the country needs, but he has to deliver. The market may have already discounted a good part of what he is likely to achieve. I visited China this year and my conclusion is that the size and the diversity of the country present a challenge to how central government rules the country. As a result, the regional authorities have a lot of power and it is hard for Beijing to know if they are always performing in accordance with the intentions of the central government. It is true that China has ascended to the position of second largest economy in the world but that is because of the size of the population, not its per capita income. I don't expect a hard landing, however, because they have enough control over the economy to avoid that. Still, I presently have no investments there. I also visited Japan and I am impressed by what is happening in their economy now. The people need to have more confidence that Shinzo Abe's policies are working. I am making some investments in Japan.

"As for the rest of the world, I am pretty bored. I think Indonesia is basically a commodities rather than industrial market and if commodities do well, so will the country's equities, but I can't predict commodity prices. In Latin America I am bullish on Argentina; Brazil will recover, but it is too early to invest now.

"Everyone seems to be disturbed by the lack of volatility in the market, but volatility is the product of excesses and there are few excesses now. The U.S. stock market is fairly valued, the economy is healing and the U.S. bond market has settled down to a new low-yield level. The Middle East is not likely to blow up. Despite all of this, a lot of people are afraid and because of that the market should to go higher. Europeans are under-invested. Saving the European Union and the euro preoccupied investors over the past two years. As the economy strengthens, there will be more structural change – a banking union and more fiscal convergence in Europe.

"Some final thoughts:

• In the future only creativity will be rewarded and the rewards will be big. California is a magical place for creativity. The rest of the world is an average place.

• The art market is reflective of the inequality problem. It is the most unregulated market in the world. Prices may be topping soon because of wealth taxes.

• After 2012 and 2013, it is proving much harder to make money in equities.

• There is a big boom coming in Myanmar even though the military is still in power.

• Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 election."

We had a lively discussion on almost every point but we were more in agreement than in past years. That, however, may be a worrisome sign. Half-way through his ninth decade The Smartest Man in Europe is still as informed and opinionated as ever. He should be an inspiration to all of us.

http://www.blackstone.com/news-views/market-commentary/blog-detail/byron's-market-commentary/2014/07/02/the-smartest-man-in-europe-sees-a-new-industrial-revolution

Currently 0.00/51 Dow Hits 17,000 On Jobs Report; Walgreen Same-Store-Sales Surge 7.5% Related BZSUM Dow Trades Above 17,000 While S&P 500 Inches Closer To 2,000 #PreMarket Primer: Thursday, July 3: Much To Consider Despite The Short Day Following the market opening Thursday, the Dow traded up 0.43 percent to 17,048.94 while the NASDAQ surged 0.37 percent to 4,474.01. The S&P also rose, gaining 0.35 percent to 1,981.49. Leading and Lagging Sectors In trading on Thursday, non-cyclical consumer goods & services shares were relative leaders, up on the day by about 0.56 percent. Top gainers in the sector included Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD), up 5.7 percent, and Lorillard (NYSE: LO), up 4.8 percent. Utilities shares dropped 0.78 percent in today’s trading. Top decliners in the sector included Companhia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sao Paulo (NYSE: SBS), down 1.7 percent, and Public Service Enterprise Group (NYSE: PEG), off 1.9 percent. Top Headline Walgreen Co (NYSE: WAG) reported a 7.5% rise in its same-store sales in June. Walgreen’s overall sales climbed 8.9% to $6.28 billion. Its same-store sales in the pharmacy section climbed 11.3% in June. Walgreen’s same-store customer traffic declined 2%. Equities Trading UP PetSmart (NASDAQ: PETM) shares shot up 12.76 percent to $67.43 on news that activist investor Barry Rosenstein had acquired a 9.9 percent stake and will seek a review of strategic alternatives. Shares of Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ: LULU) got a boost, shooting up 3.26 percent to $42.75 after Dow Jones reported that the company’s founder Dennis Wilson, is exploring options , including a potential sale of the company to private equity. Cree (NASDAQ: CREE) shares were also up, gaining 3.94 percent to $52.29. Oppenheimer upgraded Cree from Market Perform to Outperform. Equities Trading DOWN Shares of SYNNEX (NYSE: SNX) were down 5.46 percent to $69.89 after the company issued a downbeat outlook for the third quarter. It expected adjusted earnings of $1.45 to $1.50 per share on revenue of $3.3 billion to $3.4 billion. Analysts were projecting earnings of $1.53 per share on revenue of $3.29 billion. NQ Mobile (NYSE: NQ) shares tumbled 34.32 percent to $4.44 after the company announced certain changes to its Board of Directors and provided a status update on its 2013 annual audit. BIND Therapeutics (NASDAQ: BIND) was down, falling 10.56 percent to $11.52 after the company reported the closing of collaboration deal with Amgen (NASDAQ: AMGN). Commodities In commodity news, oil traded down 0.43 percent to $104.03, while gold traded down 1.07 percent to $1,316.70. Silver traded down 1.04 percent Thursday to $21.08, while copper fell 0.15 percent to $3.26. Eurozone European shares were higher today. The eurozone’s STOXX 600 rose 0.73 percent, the Spanish Ibex Index gained 0.37 percent, while Italy’s FTSE MIB Index surged 0.90 percent. Meanwhile, the German DAX climbed 0.79 percent and the French CAC 40 rose 0.69 percent while UK shares climbed 0.66 percent. Economics The US economy added 288,000 jobs in June, while the unemployment rate declined to 6.1% versus 6.3%. However, economists were expecting an addition of 215,000 nonfarm jobs. US jobless claims increased 2,000 to 315,000 in the week ended June 28. However, economists were projecting claims to reach 314,000 in the week. US trade deficit narrowed 5.6% in May to $44.4 billion in May. The country’s exports increased 1% to $195.5 billion, while imports declined 0.3% to $239.8 billion. The final reading of Markit PMI Services index fell to 61.00 in June, versus a prior reading of 61.20. However, economists were expecting a reading of 61.00. Announced layoffs declined 31,343 in June versus 52,961 in May, according to outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The ISM non-manufacturing index fell to 56.00 in June, versus a prior reading of 56.30. However, economists were expecting a reading of 56.30. The Treasury is set to auction 3-and 6-month bills. The Treasury will also auction 3-and 10-year notes. Data on money supply will be released at 4:30 p.m. ET. Posted-In: Earnings News Guidance Eurozone Futures Commodities Contracts Legal © 2014 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.   Most Popular Apple Price Target Raised 15% By Evercore, Sees Revenue Growth Resuming Rumored Big Engine Order From American Could Boost GE Aviation's Bottom Line Aegis Capital Believes Valeant Pharmaceuticals' Bid For Allergan Is Looking More Promising Traders Speculating Chevron May Acquire Devon Energy (CVX, DVN) Now Is The Right Time To Buy Rite Aid Nintendo Promoted 'Mario Kart 8,' Nintendo 2DS With $9.7 Million TV Ad Campaign Related Articles (AMGN + BIND) Citi Sees Plenty Of Q2 Earnings Beats Ahead In Biotech Sector Dow Hits 17,000 On Jobs Report; Walgreen Same-Store-Sales Surge 7.5% JMP Securities Speculates How End Of Amgen Collaboration Could Affect BIND Therapeutics Morning Market Losers UPDATE: Credit Suisse Reiterates On BIND Therapeutics After AMGN Declines Option On Accurin Technology Benzinga's Top #PreMarket Losers Partner Network Thursday, July 3, 2014 10 Best “Strong Buy” Stocks — BITA TRGP TPL and more Popular Posts: Hottest Energy Stocks Now – TPLM HK KOG SDBiggest Movers in Healthcare Stocks Now – TARO PCRX FMS INO10 Best “Strong Buy” Stocks — BITA SHPG TRGP and more Recent Posts: Hottest Financial Stocks Now – WLP HTGC CACC CG Hottest Technology Stocks Now – AYI WDC NUAN YHOO Hottest Healthcare Stocks Now – THC KND VRTX ABBV View All Posts 10 Best “Strong Buy” Stocks — BITA TRGP TPL and more This week, these ten stocks, all currently earning A’s (“strong buy”) on Portfolio Grader, have the best year-to-date performance. Shares of Bitauto Holdings Ltd. Sponsored ADR () have risen 59.7% since January 1. Bitauto provides Internet content and marketing services for the automotive industry, primarily in the People'’s Republic of China. . Since January 1, Targa Resources () has shot up 61.7%. Targa Resources provides midstream natural gas and natural gas liquid (NGL) services in the United States. The stock has a dividend yield of 2.6%. . Since January 1, the price of Texas Pacific Land () has grown 61.8%. Texas Pacific Land Trust derives revenue from all avenues of managing land, such as royalties from oil and gas and land sales. . Since January 1, Illumina, Inc. () has jumped 64.6%. Illumina develops, manufactures and markets integrated systems for the large-scale analysis of genetic variation and biological function. . Since the first of the year, shares of Shire PLC Sponsored ADR () have soared 70.7%. Shire, a biopharmaceutical company, researches, develops, manufactures, sells, and distributes pharmaceutical products. . Questcor Pharmaceuticals, Inc. () has risen 71.3% since the first of the year. Questcor Pharmaceuticals develops and commercializes novel central nervous system-focused therapeutics that address significant unmet medical needs. . Since January 1, Green Plains Inc. () has climbed 71.8%. Green Plains Renewable Energy constructs and operates dry mill, fuel-grade ethanol production facilities. . The price of EQT Midstream Partners LP () has seen a 72.3% boost since the first of the year. EQT Midstream Partners provides natural gas transmission, storage, and gathering services in Pennsylvania and West Virginia. . The price of Forest Laboratories, Inc. () is up 74.2% since the first of the year. Forest Laboratories develops, manufactures, and sells both branded and generic forms of ethical products which require a physician’s prescription. . Shares of Repligen Corporation () have leaped 78% since January 1. Repligen is a biopharmaceutical company that develops therapeutics for radiology and neuropsychiatry. . Louis Navellier’s proprietary Portfolio Grader stock ranking system assesses roughly 5,000 companies every week based on a number of fundamental and quantitative measures. Stocks are given a letter grade based on their results — with A being “strong buy,” and F being “strong sell.” Explore the tool here. Tuesday, July 1, 2014 3 Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- Professional traders running mutual funds and hedge funds don't just look at a stock's price moves; they also track big changes in volume activity. Often when above-average volume moves into an equity, it precedes a large spike in volatility. >>5 Hated Earnings Stocks You Should Love Major moves in volume can signal unusual activity, such as insider buying or selling -- or buying or selling by "superinvestors." Unusual volume can also be a major signal that hedge funds and momentum traders are piling into a stock ahead of a catalyst. These types of traders like to get in well before a large spike, so it's always a smart move to monitor unusual volume. That said, remember to combine trend and price action with unusual volume. Put them all together to help you decipher the next big trend for any stock. >>5 Rocket Stocks to Buy in July With that in mind, let's take a look at several stocks rising on unusual volume recently. Flamel Technologies Flamel Technologies (FLML), a specialty pharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes pharmaceutical products based on its proprietary polymer based technology. This stock closed up 6.6% at $15 in Monday's trading session. Monday's Volume: 616,000 Three-Month Average Volume: 222,855 Volume % Change: 221% From a technical perspective, FLML ripped sharply higher here right above some near-term support at $14 with above-average volume. This spike higher on Monday is starting to push shares of FLML within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if FLML manages to take out Monday's intraday high of $15.36 to its 52-week high at $15.75 with high volume. Traders should now look for long-biased trades in FLML as long as it's trending above some near-term support at $14 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 222,855 shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then FLML will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $18 to $20. Greenhill Greenhill (GHL) operates as an independent investment bank for corporations, partnerships, institutions and governments worldwide. This stock closed up 2% to $49.25 in Monday's trading session. Monday's Volume: 3.56 million Three-Month Average Volume: 420,016 Volume % Change: 420% From a technical perspective, GHL jumped higher here back above its 50-day moving average of $49 with monster upside volume. This stock recently formed a double bottom chart pattern at $45.45 to $45.33. Following that bottom, shares of GHL have started to uptrend and move back above its 50-day. Market players should now look for a continuation move to the upside in the near-term if GHL manages to take out Monday's intraday high of $49.28 to some more resistance at $50.09 with high volume. Traders should now look for long-biased trades in GHL as long as it's trending above Monday's intraday low of $47.95 or above $47 and then once it sustains a move or close above $49.28 to $50.09 with volume that hits near or above 420,016 shares. If that move starts soon, then GHL will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at its 200-day moving average of $51.01 to $52.50. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give GHL a chance to tag $54 to $55. Cara Therapeutics Cara Therapeutics (CARA), a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing and commercializing chemical entities designed to alleviate pain by selectively targeting kappa opioid receptors. This stock closed up 9.3% to $17.02 in Monday's trading session. Monday's Volume: 173,000 Three-Month Average Volume: 122,161 Volume % Change: 50% From a technical perspective, CARA exploded higher here right above some near-term support at $15.20 with above-average volume. This sharp spike higher on Monday is quickly pushing shares of CARA within range of triggering a big breakout trade. That trade will hit if CARA manages to take out Monday's intraday high of $17.20 and then once it clears some key near-term overhead resistance at $17.69 with high volume. Traders should now look for long-biased trades in CARA as long as it's trending above $16 or above Monday's intraday low of $15.45 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 122,161 shares. If that breakout materializes soon, then CARA will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $19 to $20, or even $20.70 to $22. To see more stocks rising on unusual volume, check out the Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume portfolio on Stockpickr. -- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis. RELATED LINKS: >>4 Big Stocks Getting Big Attention >>5 Dividend Stocks That Want to Pay You More >>5 Stocks Ready for Breakouts Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook. At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned. Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including CNBC.com and Forbes.com. You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24. 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