Wednesday, August 20, 2014

4 Stocks Under $10 Making Big Moves Higher

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- At Stockpickr, we track daily portfolios of stocks that are the biggest percentage gainers and the biggest percentage losers.

>>Warren Buffett's Top 25 Stocks for 2014

Stocks that are making large moves like these are favorites among short-term traders because they can jump into these names and try to capture some of that massive volatility. Stocks that are making big-percentage moves either up or down are usually in play because their sector is becoming attractive or they have a major fundamental catalyst such as a recent earnings release. Sometimes stocks making big moves have been hit with an analyst upgrade or an analyst downgrade.

Regardless of the reason behind it, when a stock makes a large-percentage move, it is often just the start of a new major trend -- a trend that can lead to huge profits. If you time your trade correctly, combining technical indicators with fundamental trends, discipline and sound money management, you will be well on your way to investment success.

>>5 Rocket Stocks to Buy for Blastoff Earnings Season Gains

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at a several stocks under $10 that are making large moves to the upside.

Endeavour International

Endeavour International (END), an independent oil and gas company, acquires, explores and develops energy reserves and resources in the United Kingdom North Sea and the U. S. onshore. This stock closed up 6.8% to $1.40 in Tuesday's trading session.

Tuesday's Range: $1.31-$1.46

52-Week Range: $1.02-$7.50

Tuesday's Volume: 2.82 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 1.79 million

From a technical perspective, END ripped sharply higher here with strong upside volume flows. This sharp move to the upside on Tuesday is quickly pushing shares of END within range of triggering a major breakout trade. That trade will hit if END manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance levels at $1.46 to $1.52 and then once it clears its 50-day moving average of $1.59 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in END as long as it's trending above Tuesday's intraday low of $1.31 or above more key support at $1.20 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 1.79 million shares. If that breakout gets underway soon, then END will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $1.80 to $1.95.

Higher One

Higher One (ONE) provides technology-based refund disbursement, payment processing and data analytics services to higher education institutions and students in the U.S. This stock closed up 6.8% to $4.35 in Tuesday's trading session.

Tuesday's Range: $4.05-$4.39

52-Week Range: $3.47-$11.06

Tuesday's Volume: 498,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 440,559

From a technical perspective, ONE ripped sharply higher here right above its 50-day moving average of $3.95 with above-average volume. This strong move to the upside on Tuesday is quickly pushing shares of ONE within range of triggering a major breakout trade. That trade will hit if ONE manages to take out Tuesday's intraday high of $4.39 to some more key overhead resistance at $4.52 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in ONE as long as it's trending above its 50-day at $3.95 or above some more key support at $3.88 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 440,559 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then ONE will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $5 to $5.50, or even $6 to $6.50.

Yingli Green Energy

Yingli Green Energy (YGE), together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufacture, markets, sells and installs photovoltaic products in the People's Republic of China. This stock closed up 4.5% to $3.45 Tuesday's trading session.

Tuesday's Range: $3.30-$3.55

52-Week Range: $2.68-$8.77

Tuesday's Volume: 3.88 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 5.34 million

From a technical perspective, YGE jumped notably higher here right off its 50-day moving average of $3.32 with lighter-than-average volume. This stock recently formed a double bottom chart pattern at $3.08 to $3.16. Following that bottom, shares of YGE have started to uptrend back above its 50-day and it's quickly moving within range of triggering a big breakout trade above a key downtrend line. That trade will hit if YGE manages to take out Tuesday's intraday high of $3.55 to some more key overhead resistance at $3.60 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in YGE as long as it's trending above Tuesday's intraday low of $3.30 or above those double bottom support zones and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 5.34 million shares. If that breakout kicks off soon, then YGE will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $3.85 to $4.04. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give YGE a chance to tag its next major overhead resistance levels at $4.65 to $4.88.

China Finance Online

China Finance Online (JRJC) provides integrated financial information and services in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. This stock closed up 6.7% to $4.27 in Tuesday's trading session.

Tuesday's Range: $3.96-$4.32

52-Week Range: $1.25-$8.20

Tuesday's Volume: 447,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 471,952

From a technical perspective, JRJC bounced sharply higher here right above some near-term support levels at $3.83 and its 50-day moving average at $3.77 with decent upside volume flows. This bounce higher on Tuesday is quickly pushing shares of JRJC within range of triggering a major breakout trade. That trade will hit if JRJC manages to take out some key near-term overhead resistance levels at $4.45 to its 200-day moving average at $4.53 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in JRJC as long as it's trending above Tuesday's intraday low of $3.96 or above its 50-day at $3.77 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 471,952 hares. If that breakout triggers soon, then JRJC will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $5.10 to $6.40.

To see more stocks that are making notable moves higher, check out the Stocks Under $10 Moving Higher portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.


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At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com.

You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.


Sunday, August 10, 2014

Credit Outlook Worsens For Chinese State Banks

The credit portfolios of the big four Chinese state banks are worsening thanks to a weaker housing market, and now the major lenders are getting serious about the non-performing loans on their books.

The Bank of Communications Bank of Communications, China's fifth-largest bank, assembled research teams last month to look over the assets of troubled borrowers in Zhejiang Province, according to bank sources and an internal document obtained by Reuters. The province is a hotbed of China's credit stress, the Shanghai Daily reported on Sunday.

China's big state owned banks have been blamed by investors for misrepresenting the actual amount of bad loans.  Official record puts China's non-performers on par with world averages.  But many investors, primarily those with a more bearish outlook, think the government banks have a major problem on their hands.  Not only is the housing market shrinking, but the People's Bank of China Bank of China (PBoC) is also breathing down the necks of lenders who manage non-diversified trust funds. The government is aware of the credit problem and is doing its best to keep up appearances, at least.

One of the more famous trust fund duds was China Credit Equals Gold #1, which basically invested in a single company that had no revenues. The fund went belly up. It was connected to the world's largest bank, China's Industrial and Commercial Bank.

The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the country's largest bank, has run into major problems with asset management products. Now the big banks are trying to protect themselves from a rise in non-performing loans.

The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the country's largest bank, has run into major problems with asset management products. Now the big banks are trying to protect themselves from a rise in non-performing loans. As they rise, China's government is likely to sweep them under the rug as it did over 10 years ago.

Bankers from other major lenders said they were further cutting lending to riskier borrowers, in particular smaller private companies. The PBoC has been pushing for banks to lend to small businesses.

"We're lending almost exclusively to state-owned enterprises in our department at the moment, because it's just seen as the least risky," a senior loan officer at the Bank of China was quoted saying in Sunday's Shanghai Daily.

Management at the Bank of Communications had grown increasingly concerned about a surge in bad loans in July. In response, it set up teams to assess the situation in Zhejiang, Shandong, Fujian, Hubei and Guangdong provinces, according to Reuters.

China's official information on non-performing loans (NPLs) first became available in 1998, but the data from 1998 and 1999 probably under-estimated the actual size of the NPL problem, the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Mass. said in a white paper dated February 2012. China's low-balling would explain the jump in the size of NPLs from 1999 to 2000. China's NPLs are the highest out of six countries, including the U.S., from 2000 to 2007. By 2010, the total value of NPLs fell by half to $68.1 billion, for a low 1.1%. Only Indonesia and Taiwan had better credit portfolios.

But since then, investors are back to doubting the numbers.

Official figures on outstanding loans in China never include the bad loans that have been transferred from banks to four state-owned asset management companies —basically China's toxic asset relief program. Those loans are still on the books, being rolled over year after year, unlikely ever to be paid in full.

The National Bureau of Economic Research said if China's actual NPLs were added to the toxic asset funds run by the big four, then "the total amount of non-performing loans would increase by two-thirds."

There's also a classification problem.

The Basel Committee for Bank Supervision classifies a loan as a non-performer when any interest payment is overdue by 180 days or more. In the U.S., non-performing loans are those overdue by 90 days.

But China plays by different rules. Classification of a non-performing loan is typically taken only when the principal payment is delayed beyond the loan maturity date or an extended due date. It's not just a matter of semantics. For investors, the credit bubble has become a matter of buy or sell Chinese stocks.

The good news is that China has been here before. And survived.

In the later 1990s and early 2000s, non-performing loans at state banks were estimated by Moody's Moody's to be as high as 45%.  Everybody thought China banks would soon fail. However, monetary authorities came to the rescue. They simply wrote-off half of that debt without batting an eye, while the other half were taken off balance sheet and sold to newly created government-funded asset management companies at par value. Instead of suffering a Japan-style financial crisis, the economy entered a decade-long period of extraordinary high growth. And the loans, like the bad loans of today, were never paid off.

"China has a war chest of foreign exchange reserves that it finds difficult to dispense," wrote Yu Yongding, former president of the China Society of World Economics, in an op-ed published by Hong Kong based NGO, the China U.S. Exchange Foundation.  He doubts there will be a full blown financial crisis in China any time soon. "When necessary, the Chinese government will not hesitate to inject capital from the reserves into commercial banks," he wrote.

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