Access Insurance 2013: December 2014

Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Amazon (AMZN), The Modern Day Conglomerate

Jeff Bezos is a fascinating man in so many different ways. In the past 15 years or so, Bezos set up the ultimate store. It sells both physical and digital goods all around the world.

Amazon is able to get incredibly valuable data on what is being sold, by who and where it's shipped and then can adapt by getting more involved when it makes sense.

Now that Amazon is dominant in so many categories and now launching media consumption products such as tablets, phones, and tv consoles and expanding its app store to other platforms such as Blackberry. The goal of course remains to get dominant market share which it has achieved in several product categories. Then, it's able to negotiate with suppliers in a position of power and bully them if needed (see Hachette's very public battle with Amazon for a good example).

amzn Among other things, Amazon now produces or sells:

-Digital content (storage, music, ebooks, audiobooks, video (some of it leased from HBO and other studios and other produced itself) -Its own media devices (tablets, ebook readers, tv consoles, smartphones, etc)

-Physical stuff: -dvd's, cd's, etc -electronics and computers -home, gardent and tools -beauty, health and grocery -toys, kids and baby items -clothing, shoes and jewelry -sports and outdoor stuff -automative stuff

Amazon also owns several brands such as Zappos which have very strong brands.

So yes, Amazon is taking over the world. It is taking its lead in some areas and taking that edge to extend it into new products. I just don't see anyone able to successfully compete with the Bezos empire, no matter if they're called Google or Walmart. It's too late for that. Yes, at some point Amazon will need to produce some profits but in the meantime it's been able to spend a decade of profits into building the top distribution and technoloy in order to manage such a franchise where having a "local" presence takes a whole new meaning.

Will I buy Amazon? Probably at some point, I'm just looking for the right entry point as I continue to believe the downside vs upside risk remains poor.

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Parents: Stop Letting Your Children Control Your Financial Life

dv1223094Digital Vision(Royalty-free) Family discussing moneyFamily discussing loansFamily money problemsFamily Si Getty Images We've all heard about helicopter parents -- and some of us admit we them -- but a new survey by Coldwell Banker Real Estate indicates that children of younger parents have an outsized influence when it comes to piloting the family's financial decisions. The "Parenting and Homebuying Study of American Parents" surveyed 2,800 parents of multiple generations about spending decisions made when their children were 18 or under. It showed that 79 percent of millennial parents (age 18-34) and 70 percent of Gen X parents (age 35-59) said that most of their major purchasing decisions revolved around their kids. Only a little over half (52 percent) of boomer parents (age 50-69) and just 41 percent of parents age 70 and older said they made major purchasing decisions that revolved around their kids. Robi Ludwig, a psychotherapist and lifestyle consultant for Coldwell Banker Real Estate, says there has been a shift in the past 30 years in attitudes about major lifestyle and financial decisions, such as moving. "It used to be that when parents wanted or needed to move, they would do it, and the kids would adjust. But Gen X and millennial parents are more focused on their kids and how any change will impact them. Some of them drag their feet even if they know their house is too small or their commute is too long because they're putting the needs of their kids before the needs of the parents." Generational Shift in Attitude Toward Family When it comes to moving, the survey showed that 67 percent of millennial parents and 64 percent of Gen X parents cared most about the immediate impact on their kids' emotional well-being, while just 54 percent of boomer parents and 42 percent of parents age 70 and older said that was of primary importance in their decision to move or not. Younger parents are more likely to want to live near their own parents or their in-laws than their own parents' and grandparents' generations were. Just 29 percent of parents age 70 and older said that when they were raising children they wanted to live near their parents or spouse's parents, and 43 percent of boomer parents said this was a priority. Ludwig says that when immigrant families first come to the U.S., they often live in multigenerational households or with other relatives in nearby homes. "Over time, people got tired of living someplace where everyone knows each other's business, and they started to want to establish their independence and set boundaries for their relationships with their relatives," she says. "People started moving farther away from family members, but now we're seeing a shift back to a more middle ground with families wanting to live near each other." "Millennials actually like their parents and think of them as friends," Ludwig says. "Gen X and millennial parents also like the idea of their kids having a relationship with their grandparents and want to know they're around so they can rely on them." These attitudes are reflected in the survey results, with 62 percent of millennial parents and 57 percent of gen X parents saying they want their mothers, fathers or in-laws nearby. Balancing What's Best for the Kids and Best for You

Tuesday, December 30, 2014

4 Big Tech Stocks on Traders' Radars

BALTIMORE (Stockpickr) -- Put down the 10-K filings and the stock screeners. It's time to take a break from the traditional methods of generating investment ideas. Instead, let the crowd do it for you.

>>Must-See Charts: Fight the Selling With These 5 Trades

From hedge funds to individual investors, scores of market participants are turning to social media to figure out which stocks are worth watching. It's a concept that's known as "crowdsourcing," and it uses the masses to identify emerging trends in the market.

Crowdsourcing has long been a popular tool for the advertising industry, but it also makes a lot of sense as an investment tool. After all, the market is completely driven by the supply and demand, so it can be valuable to see what names are trending among the crowd.

While some fund managers are already trying to leverage social media resources like Twitter to find algorithmic trading opportunities, for most investors, crowdsourcing works best as a starting point for investors who want a starting point in their analysis. Today, we'll leverage the power of the crowd to take a look at some of the most active stocks on the market today.

>>5 Short-Squeeze Stocks Poised to Pop

These "most active" names are the most heavily-traded names on the market -- and often, uber-active names have some sort of a technical or fundamental catalyst driving investors' attention on shares. And when there's a big catalyst, there's often a trading opportunity.

Without further ado, here's a look at today's stocks.

Twitter

Nearest Resistance: $40 
Nearest Support: N/A 
Catalyst: Lock-Up Expiration

Shares of social media star Twitter (TWTR) are down more than 4% this afternoon, tacking on more losses to a pretty rough week for the micro-blogging platform. Since Monday, shares of Twitter have dropped more than 21% following the expiration of the firm's lock-up period. All of that excess supply of shares is piling selling pressure onto an already broken chart.

From a technical standpoint, Twitter's chart broke at the end of April, when shares closed materially below $40 for the first time after earnings. Lower levels still look likely from here. I'd recommend staying clear of this name until it can establish some semblance of support again.

Facebook

Nearest Resistance: $64 
Nearest Support: $55 
Catalyst: TWTR Sympathy Move

Social network Facebook (FB) is down 2.6% on high volume this afternoon, the result of sympathy moves from industry peer Twitter. And while Twitter's chart looks broken right now, Facebook's setup isn't faring much better.

Facebook looks "toppy" from a technical standpoint, forming a classic head and shoulders top in the intermediate term with a neckline at $55. Put simply, if FB violates that line in the sand at $55, then a lot more downside looks likely. That's not particularly comforting news for Facebook investors who've seen their stakes fall by more than 20% since March, but it's the high probability trade that's shaping up in shares. Keep a very close eye on that $55 level in May.

Cognizant Technology

Nearest Resistance: $47 
Nearest Support: $45 
Catalyst: Q1 Earnings

Better-than-expected profits weren't enough to prevent the selling in Cognizant Technology (CTSH) this afternoon -- shares of the $28 billion IT outsourcer are down 5% this afternoon following first-quarter results. Cognizant earned 62 cents last quarter, beating Wall Street's 55-cent estimates pretty handily. But it's the firm's outlook that failed to live up to expectations: CTSH expects $10.3 billion in revenue for the full year, shy of investors projected numbers.

Technically, the selling broke shares down below former support at $47, a level that's been a floor for this stock since all the way back in November. That newfound absence of buying pressure at $47 is a major red flag for CTSH's ability to catch a bid higher going forward.

Support at $45 is pretty weak. Lower ground looks likely in the near-term in Cognizant.

Baidu

Nearest Resistance: $310 
Nearest Support: $280 
Catalyst: TWTR Sympathy Move

Last up is Chinese Web search company Baidu (BIDU), another tech name that's seeing big downward volume today as a sympathy move to Twitter. While today's price action isn't exactly welcome, the good news is that it's not exactly a bid deal either. Given the broad range that BIDU has been trading in, today's 5% selloff looks more like noise than anything else.

Key support at $145 is the line in the sand at BIDU. As long as shares hold that level, it's not a sell.

To see these stocks in action, check out the at Most-Active Stocks portfolio on Stockpickr.  

-- Written by Jonas Elmerraji in Baltimore.

Monday, December 29, 2014

You can deduct that regardless of your income

With time running out to file your 2013 tax return, you want to make sure you're on top of the available deductions to maximize your tax savings.

Taxpayers may be aware of numerous tax breaks, but depending on your income, many deductions may no longer be as valuable—or you may be ineligible entirely.

Due to recent tax-law changes, anyone with an adjusted gross income above $250,000—for a married couple filing jointly, it's $300,000—will face a limit on itemized deductions that could thus limit their potential tax savings for the 2013 tax year. In addition, many upper-middle-income taxpayers who face the Alternative Minimum Tax—a higher tax than their regular income tax—will not be able to claim deductions that may be allowed on a regular tax return, according to tax analyst Mark Luscombe of CCH, part of Wolters Kluwer.

Still, there are money-saving tax deductions and other strategies that you may be able to take advantage of, no matter how much you make. Here are eight ways to save:

1. Moving-expense deduction.

If you moved to take a new job due to a change in your job or business location—and paid for the move out of pocket—you may be able to deduct your moving expenses.

"Local moves don't apply. If you just moved to the other side of town, you won't be eligible" for this tax break, Luscombe said. If it's your first job, your new workplace must be at least 50 miles away from your old home to qualify. Other time and distance tests are required if you are moving to a new job.

2. Capital loss deduction.

The stock market had a very strong year in 2013, but some of your investments may not have fared as well. If your capital losses were more than your capital gains, you can claim a capital loss deduction of your total net loss up to $3,000, reducing your income dollar-for-dollar.

3. Medical, dental expense deductions.

Guidelines for tax-deductible medical expenses changed because of the Affordable Care Act. Your unreimbursed medical ! expenses must exceed 10% of your adjusted gross income to qualify for a deduction. That's up from 7.5% in the 2012 tax year.

However, the lower 7.5% threshold still applies for people age 65 and older until the end of 2016. Typical expenses may include unreimbursed medical and dental bills, equipment costs and medical supplies and devices.

4. Health savings account.

If you're covered by a high-deductible health plan, you may be able to set up a health savings account by April 15 and contribute up to $3,250 if you're single and $6,450 for families to the account. Contributions to the HSA will lower your taxable income dollar-for-dollar. Plus, contributions, earnings and withdrawals are tax-free when used to pay for qualified medical expenses.

If you have a small business or are self-employed, you have even more ways to reduce your tax bill.

5. SEP IRA.

If you're a sole proprietor, business owner or earn self-employment income, you also have until April 15 to set up and contribute to a SEP IRA for the 2013 tax year. You can contribute up to 25% of your compensation—or 20% of self-employment income—up to $51,000 in this account.

Like a traditional IRA, "if the SEP-IRA contribution is made before the filing due date of your return, it is deductible on your 2013 tax return," said Elda Di Re, a tax expert for Ernst & Young.

6. Home-office deduction.

If you're self-employed and work out of your home, there's a new option for claiming a deduction for a home office. Your deduction is based on the size of your home office, using a simple calculation: Deduct $5 for every square foot of work space used—up to a maximum of 300 square feet. So the maximum deduction is $1,500.

You can still calculate the home-office deduction the old way, figuring related expenses and how they may apply over the course of the year to a home office, but the new way is a lot simpler.

7. Health insurance premium deductions for self-employed.

Business owners ! and self-! employed taxpayers may be able to deduct health insurance premiums, as long as they aren't already covered under their employer's or spouse's employer's plan.

8. Business-expense tax deductions.

If you're self-employed, a contractor or sole proprietor, you may be able to deduct qualified business expenses related to your work. Also, "if you are expending monies which are not reimbursed by the partnership, you can take those business expenses directly against your partnership income," Di Re said.

The IRS requires eligible business expenses be "ordinary" (something common and acceptable in that particular business) as well as "necessary" (something appropriate and helpful to the business). But Luscombe noted that taxpayers should keep in mind that "business expense deductions can only be taken once, either on your individual income-tax return or a separate business tax return—but not on both."

MORE: Tax moves to avoid

MORE: Filing taxes online? How to protect yourself

MORE: Best and worst states for taxpayers

Sunday, December 28, 2014

Gannett Co., Inc. Gets PT Boost at FBR Capital (GCI)

Early on Monday morning, Gannett (GCI) had its price target raised to $35 from $34 at FBR Capital. The ratings company also affirmed that Gannett is a “Top Pick.”

Gannett, a publishing and broadcasting company that operates in the U.S. and the U.K., currently has a price of $29.76, and FBR’s new target suggests an 18% upside.

FBR analyst William Bird had the following comments about GCI’s PT raise: “Based on our analysis, we estimate that Gannett’s spectrum is worth approximately $2.2 billion, or $9 per share, roughly doubling in value from the acquisition of BLC (i.e., pre-deal valuation of ~$1.1 billion). Separately, we are lowering our 2014 EPS estimate by $0.07 to reflect the previously announced sale of three stations to MDP (note: an expected midyear close means that the stations will not be in operating results from January 1, but the proceeds will not be received until midyear). We are increasing our price target to $35 from $34 to reflect shareholder accretion from the sale. We like Gannett’s improving business mix, growth profile, and ability to drive growth with its own propeller through higher retrans, synergies, and potential TV acquisitions.”

Gannett stock was inactive in pre-market trading. So far this year, the company’s stock is up 0.61%.

Merrill Grabs 3 Reps as Raymond James, LPL Each Add 2 Advisors

The wirehouses, national broker-dealers and independent firms continue to share their latest recruiting news ahead of the holiday break and start of 2014.

Merrill Lynch (BAC) said Monday that it recruited three advisors from Wells Fargo (WFC), UBS (UBS) and Credit Suisse (CS).

Daniel Rodriguez has joined Merrill in Coral Gables, Fla., from Wells Fargo with nearly $1.1 million in yearly fees and commissions.

Rodney Woodley moved from UBS Financial Services to Merrill in Davenport, Iowa, with close to $990,000 in yearly production and about $130.6 million in client assets.

Jeffrey Klinger joined Merrill Lynch’s Private Banking & Investment Group in San Francisco. He previously worked for Credit Suisse.

Raymond James' Recruiting

Financial advisors John Quello and Nathan Quello, CFP, who were formerly with UBS, have joined Loft Advisors at First Dakota National Bank, an existing partner bank with the Financial Institutions Division of Raymond James Financial Services (RJF) in Sioux Falls, S.D. They have about $325 million in assets and yearly production of more than $1.6 million.

“We are pleased to welcome John and Nathan to Raymond James,” said Dan Mallard, national sales manager of the division, in a statement. “They are committed to providing a broad selection of investment and wealth management services to their clients, and we look forward to a long and mutually rewarding partnership with them and First Dakota National Bank.”

John has been in the business for 34 years, while his son Nathan came to work in the field 13 years ago.

“We discovered during our due diligence process that what we were really looking for in a firm was one with a more family-oriented, personal feel,” said John Quello, in a press release. “We wanted to be affiliated with a banking institution and yet be a part of a firm with accessible resources and responsive support.”

Baird says Kevin Cross, CFP, is now senior vice president at its Denver wealth management office. His previous work was as a financial consultant with Charles Schwab (SCHW), and he started his career as an advisor with Prudential Securities in 1998.

“We are thrilled Kevin has chosen to continue his career at Baird,” said Steve Binder, senior vice president and director of the Colorado market for Baird, in a press release. “His extensive industry experience and commitment to the highest level of client service makes him an excellent addition to our firm and a great fit for our culture.” LPL's Latest Affiliates

LPL Financial (LPLA) said Tuesday that two veteran advisors, Kelley F. Snook Jr. and Paul Housey, have moved to LPL’s broker-dealer and RIA custodial platforms. The team previously traded securities via Northstar Financial Partners.

Snook and Housey are based in Troy, Mich., and each has more than 20 years of financial services industry experience.

“We are delighted to welcome Kelley Snook and Paul Housey to LPL Financial,” said Bill Morrissey, executive vice president of business development at LPL Financial, in a press release. “We are pleased to be able to provide the full extent of support services, technology and practice management resources that will help facilitate their growth and enable them to continue to provide high-quality, customized financial advice to their private and institutional clients alike.”

Snook’s retirement plan consultancy, doing business as the RIA Straightline Consulting Group, focuses on corporate-sponsored 401(k) plans, as well as nonprofit 403(b) plans primarily for colleges and universities. His practice supports about $4.3 billion of assets.

“With regulatory changes in recent years affecting 401(k) and 403(b) plans, our extensive work and familiarity with this area has given a boost to our retirement plan advisory business, and “LPL Financial is a natural fit for supporting our growth in this arena,” said Snook, in a statement. “As we looked toward the future, it was clear to us we needed to partner with a leading independent broker-dealer and custodian, endowed with a robust back-office and organizational support structure, which had the flexibility to accommodate the highly customized solutions we deliver to our clients.”

Housey’s private-client practice, which works through the investment advisory firm Flipside Consulting, provides financial planning to clients with $1 million and above in investable assets. His practice had roughly $78 million of assets.

“As our private client advisory practice increasingly serves a high-net-worth clientele, we found that partnering with LPL Financial, with its substantial services and expertise dedicated specifically to this sector, would allow an independent firm like ours to fully compete and win against larger institutions,” Housey said in a statement. “After carefully examining our options, we determined that LPL Financial had both the flexibility we needed and the capabilities to support the growth we envision.”

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Check out An Unromanticized Guide to Merging Advisory Firms on ThinkAdvisor.

Saturday, December 27, 2014

Energy Investing: The Top 5 Performing Energy Stocks of 2014

If you see any poor sap at the end of the bar drowning his or her sorrows, there's a decent chance he or she is an energy investor, and they have been looking at the performance of their portfolio for the year. So far in 2014, the Vanguard Energy Index Fund has lost more than 12% of its value while the S&P 500 has gained just a hair over 12%.

VENAX Chart

VENAX data by YCharts.

If you see that person at the end of the bar, be sure to wrap your arm around their shoulder and remind them that not every company in energy has been so miserable this year. In fact, the top five performers in the sector did pretty well -- and I'm not talking "skinniest kid at fat camp" good, either. Let's take a look at what the top five performers did this year to rise as much as they did.

WLB Chart

WLB data by YCharts.

No. 5: Tallgrass Energy Partners (NYSE: TEP ) , up 60.5%
If the saying goes "when life gives you lemons, then make lemonade," then one of the themes for the energy world was if oil prices plummet, buy energy investments isolated from oil prices. Tallgrass certainly fits that bill with its interstate gas transmission lines and partial ownership of the Pony Express crude pipeline.

On top of the company's revenue security with fee-based contracts for its pipes, Tallgrass has been busy this year expanding its footprint through the acquisition of the Trailblazer nautral gas pipeline and the aforementioned share in Pony Express. These acquisitions have allowed the company to grow its distribution to shareholders by more than 50% this year alone, and with a solid balance sheet, it looks as though it's ready to keep expanding in one of the fastest-growing areas in the U.S. for oil and gas production growth -- the Rocky Mountains.

No. 4: Cheniere Energy (NYSEMKT: LNG ) , up 63.5%
Four years ago, investors in Cheniere Energy probably wanted to have CEO Charif Souki drug tested when he announced that the company would start to pursue an export terminal for liquefied natural gas in the US. Since then, though, the idea has seemed even better, and the company has set itself up quite well in 2014 to meet those goals. Not only has construction of its export terminal stayed on track for first deliveries in 2015, but the company was also able to secure 20-year sale contracts that will transport 7.7 million tons per year of LNG.

With these contracts and the ones already signed, Cheniere's Sabine Pass facility -- Trains 1-4 -- are more than 88% contracted with those fixed-fee, 20-year contracts, and its Corpus Christi facility is now 62% contracted. Every day, this hairbrained idea is looking better and better, and the performance of Cheniere's stock in 2014 is a reflection of that.

No. 3: Westmoreland Coal (NASDAQ: WLB ) , up 67.6%
Yes, you read that right, a coal company is one of the best-performing energy stocks of the year. When you look at the performance of the major coal companies so far this year, this one really stands out.

ANR Chart

ANR data by YCharts.

There are three things that has made Westmoreland do so well while the rest of the coal bunch has struggled: 1) It has been able to maintain cash flow from operations in excess of its capital expenditures, 2) It has a much more manageable debt profile, and 3) it has been able to grow production capacity through acquisitions as well as lower cost mines that have favorable long-term sales contracts in place. Overall, the market for coal doesn't seem to be in a good position, but Westmoreland is making the best of a bad situation while the rest of its peers suffer.

No. 2: Phillips 66 Partners (NYSE: PSXP ) , up 68.4%
Like Tallgrass Energy Partners, Phillips 66 Partners is one of those investments that gives investors exposure to the energy space without the nausea that can come from volatile oil prices. However, this is a much more niche investment than other MLPs since it is a spinoff of Phillps 66's pipeline and logistics assets. So far, the partnership doesn't own very much, just a few refined product pipelines from Phillip 66's refineries as well as a crude import terminal and pipeline.

Source: Phillips 66 Partners.

That being said, it has plenty of room to grow through drop downs from Phillips 66 and acquisitions from third parties. Plus with a distribution growth of near 50% year over year that is pretty safe -- a very impressive distribution coverage ratio of 1.3 times -- it's hard to argue with its success so far.

No. 1: Plug Power (NASDAQ: PLUG ) , up 96.7%
A near doubling in share price in 2014 is about as good as it gets. But shares of the company have been on a pretty steady decline since April after the announcement of the major deal it struck to supply Wal-Mart with hydrogen fuel cell battery replacements for its warehouse equipment.

So much of the company's performance this year has been centered around that deal, as investors got excited for the prospects of hydrogen fuel cells as another competitor in the "alternative to fossil fuel power" market. However, the company has not been able to deliver on the predictions that management made at the end of last year, so much of the hype has lost momentum. Could Plug Power gain it back? Sure, maybe, but it has a lot of operational things it needs to get right before it will be able to replicate this kind of success again.

One great stock to buy for 2015 and beyond
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5 Stupid Wall Street Sayings

fortune_cookie_630 Being more than 200 years old, the stock market has had time to foster a staggering number of axioms, tips, disciplines and lessons. Indeed, one thing there’s never a shortage of on Wall Street is advice.

Unlike stock trading itself, though, all that advice and all those commonly accepted truisms are neither regulated nor tested. Anyone can write and publish an investing book, and it’s even easier to post trading tips and lessons online. No premise actually needs to be verified to be made public, and even when a premise is supported by facts, those facts are rarely verified.

The end result? There are a bunch of short-sighted — and downright bad — investing adages floating around in the proverbial ether. Some are more misleading and destructive than others, but five of them are particularly problematic for investors who have a tendency to believe, and act on, everything they hear.

‘Buy companies, not stocks’

bullseye pinpoint on target 630 This might have been solid advice a couple of decades ago when a stock’s price was a reflection of a company’s operation, slightly adjusted higher or lower depending on the organization’s plausible outlook.

But that’s not how stocks are priced in the modern era.

For better or worse, the stock market in the 21st century is something of a chess match, where you’re trading largely based on how you feel the rest of the market is going to feel about a stock anywhere from five days to 12 months down the road. That shell game doesn’t leave much room for an actual value-based assessment of a company’s operation.

Most mainstream investing books still don’t acknowledge this reality, but veteran traders know it’s how the game is played these days.

‘The market is rigged’

trader charts 630 The market may be tricky, inconsistent, exhausting, unduly-influenced, erratic and unpredictable, but it’s not rigged.

That’s going to be a tough pill to swallow for a few traders who are convinced they’re on the wrong end of too many losing trades because someone is conspiring against them. But the sooner they can come to grips with the truth, the sooner they can come to grips with the real reason they’re struggling to stay afloat in the world of stock-picking.

In reality, most traders (and new traders in particular) lose because they actually believe this business is as simple as it appears when looking in from the outside. It’s not unlike the joyous, easy-winning picture the casinos paint when encouraging consumers to take a quick trip to Las Vegas.

‘In the long run, value outperforms growth’

Aside from sticking with safe and stable names simply as a way to maintain your sanity, the industry often encourages a focus on value stocks by noting they actually yield better bottom results over the long haul. Problem: It’s only true sometimes. Other times, it’s completely untrue.

It’s been especially untrue the last few years. Since this point in the year back in 2003, the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Fund (IWF) has advanced 81%, while the iShares Russell 1000 Value Fund (IWD) has only advanced 67%.

In another 10-year segment, value might lead growth again, or it might not. That’s just it — the landscape of what works and what doesn’t is forever changing.

‘It’s a takeover candidate’

business handshake 630 Odds are that you’ll never successfully step into a stock right in front of an acquisition for any reason other than luck. Suitors make a point of keeping the lid on M&A plans specifically to avoid front-running a buyout and driving up a price. And, in the rare case where news of an impending buyout is leaked, there’s always someone with closer ties that can act on the information sooner than you can (assuming you’re not in those particular board meetings).

And just for the record, theme-based buyout speculation doesn’t improve your chances of picking an acquisition target. Back in 2012 after Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) bought Amylin for control of its diabetes pipeline following the purchase of Neighborhood Diabetes by Insulet (PODD), pundits were sure it would spark a wave of other diabetes-driven acquisitions. Those other M&A candidates began getting bid up, but as it turns out, no more meaningful buyouts materialized in the diabetes space.

Ditto for the gene-mapping mania that was sparked by the Roche (RHHBY) acquisition of Illumina and the GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) purchase of Human Genome Sciences. By the time the gene-mapping M&A trend became obviously hot, the trend was over.

‘There’s always a bull market somewhere’

bull at bombay stock exchange 630 There’s actually a little bit of truth to this axiom that Jim Cramer turned into an outright cliche. There’s an important footnote missing from the idea, however.

While there might always be a bull market somewhere, there’s not always a bull market in the arenas where the average investor can actually invest. In 2008, for instance, stocks, gold, oil, real estate and even bonds lost value over the course of most of 2008.

Yes, all of those areas eventually recovered, but they all fell — a lot — in tandem for a long, miserable time.

As of this writing, James Brumley did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

Friday, December 26, 2014

Twenty-Somethings Losing Financial Ground

Millennials feel less financially independent today than they did two years ago, according to a survey released Thursday by PNC Financial Services. Just 17% of 20-somethings with at least some college education said they feel completely independent financially, down from 23% in 2011.

Furthermore, nearly 60% said they are behind where they thought they’d be.

"Many of my peers suffer from a failure-to-launch syndrome directly related to the surge in unemployment during the Great Recession and slow pace of recovery," Mekael Teshome, economist at The PNC Financial Services Group, said in a statement. "It is not a lack of ambition we are seeing in these data. It is more about a lack of opportunity that has hindered many young adults' progress against their professional and financial objectives."

Despite feeling more dependent on their families, optimism is still high, the survey found, with 60% of less independent respondents saying they’ll stand on their own soon. The survey identified a turning point in optimism though, around age 25, when many respondents started to feel the effects of having to pay off debt, start a career and plan their financial future.

As for what defines financial independence, for 78% of respondents being able to pay the bills is the biggest milestone, although just 60% of older millennials (those between 25 and 29) said they’ve achieved it.

Nearly 60% of respondents said they’ll consider themselves independent when they get a full-time job in their chosen career. About a third have already achieved that goal, while 71% thought they’d be there by now.

Finally, 55% of respondents said moving out of their parents’ house was an essential part of financial independence, although 40% of all respondents said they still live at home. Over a quarter of older millennials live with their parents or other relatives. Interestingly, over half of respondents said they were better off than their parents were at their age.

In fact, although older millennial were more likely overall to rate themselves as financially independent, they were also more likely to feel like they were behind in their expectations. Women were especially likely to say they hadn’t achieved as much as they thought they would by their age.

College is an important part of feeling independent, too. About a third of high-school-only respondents said they feel fairly independent, compared to half of college educated respondents, and those with a degree rated themselves more independent on every factor versus those with only a high school education.

Artemis Strategy Group polled more than 3,200 adults between ages 20 and 29 in June for the PNC survey.

Thursday, December 25, 2014

Verizon Stock, Despite Scandal, Surges With Dow

Having shed more than 100 points by early afternoon, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI ) staged a comeback in its final hours of trading, as Wall Street looks to tomorrow's employment data to gauge the health of the economy. Surprisingly, Verizon's (NYSE: VZ ) stock was the top gainer in the index, even after The Guardian revealed that the National Security Agency is secretly obtaining the phone records of millions of U.S. Verizon customers.

The Dow added 80 points, or 0.5%, to close at 15,040.

Seemingly blind to the outrage surrounding the indiscriminate collection of private citizens' phone usage data, Wall Street bid Verizon's stock 3.5% higher Thursday. To be fair, the company didn't have much of a choice in the matter -- it was ordered by a secret court to provide information like "location data, call duration, unique identifiers, and time and duration of the calls," as well as the phone numbers for both parties, according to The Guardian. Verizon isn't allowed to acknowledge the program exists -- and no, I'm not making this up.

On a less-Orwellian note, Home Depot (NYSE: HD ) shares shot up 2.9% today. The stock had stumbled 5% in the previous two days, which were both losing sessions for the broader market, as well. While the real estate market's on the mend, Home Depot, meanwhile, is looking for new ways to engage with customers and attract business: The company can send customers 3D layouts of kitchen designs, and is even engaging with some users via video chat.

Pfizer (NYSE: PFE ) added 2.3% Thursday after CEO Ian Read conveyed to the Financial Times US Healthcare Conference a willingness to partner with rival companies to develop and market breakthrough treatments. As Pfizer and other pharmaceutical companies deal with the unpleasantries resulting from the "patent cliff," the willingness to partner with competitors offers another source of otherwise unavailable revenue.

Lastly, Chevron (NYSE: CVX ) , one of just six blue chip decliners, fell 0.8% on Thursday. The energy titan is working toward a deal with Argentina's YPF to develop the Vaca Muerta basin, thought to be one of the two or three largest shale oil and gas reservoirs in the world. But with all that potential reward comes some geopolitical risk, and a hefty investment, which could approach $15 billion in time.

Profiting from our increasingly global economy can be as easy as investing in your own backyard. The Motley Fool's free report, "3 American Companies Set to Dominate the World," shows you how to invest in these powerhouses -- powerhouses that don't even secretly collect your information on behalf of the government! Click here to get your free copy before it's gone.

1 Ominous Sign of a New Housing Bubble

One major cause of the housing bubble came from lenders that offered loan terms that proved to be too good to be true. Yet even after the difficult lessons of the financial crisis, at least one financial institution has come out with similarly attractive terms that have some worries about the potential ramifications on the recovering housing market.

In the following video, Motley Fool investment-planning editor Lauren Kuczala talks with longtime Fool contributor and financial planner Dan Caplinger about the latest no-money-down mortgage loans. Dan notes that although having no equity in your home does leave you with less incentive to stay current on a mortgage, there are some key differences between these loans and the mortgage products that major banks used during the mid-2000s. Moreover, with the lender in this case keeping the mortgages on its books, the threat to government-sponsored Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is nonexistent.

The Motley Fool's chief investment officer has selected his No. 1 stock for the next year. Find out which stock it is in the brand-new free report: "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2013." Just click here to access the report and find out the name of this under-the-radar company.

Editor's note: The volume levels in some segments of the video are low. We apologize for the inconvenience.

link

Wednesday, December 24, 2014

5 Rocket Stocks for Gluttonous Turkey Day Gains

BALTIMORE ( Stockpickr) -- This Thanksgiving, have your turkey and mashed potatoes with a side of stock gains. It may sound surprising, but statistically speaking, Thanksgiving week has a distinct bullish bias for the stock market.

Must Read: Warren Buffett's Top 10 Dividend Stocks

(That's in spite of a closed market on Thursday, and a shortened session on Friday.)

And it doesn't end there -- the stretch from Thanksgiving through the end of the year has only been negative once in the past decade for the S&P 500, an indication that investors generally feel good about stocks heading into the end of the year. Generally speaking, it's the best single month all year long for stocks investors.

But that doesn't mean you should buy blindly here -- with a third of the S&P 500 still down year-to-date, stock selection matters more than ever in 2014. So, to take full advantage of that seasonal stock bias, we're turning to a fresh set of Rocket Stocks worth buying this week...

For the uninitiated, "Rocket Stocks" are our list of companies with short-term gain catalysts and longer-term growth potential. To find them, I run a weekly quantitative screen that seeks out stocks with a combination of analyst upgrades and positive earnings surprises to identify rising analyst expectations, a bullish signal for stocks in any market. After all, where analysts' expectations are increasing, institutional cash often follows. In the last 275 weeks, our weekly list of five plays has outperformed the S&P 500's record run by 77.04%.

Without further ado, here's a look at this week's Rocket Stocks.

Must Read: 12 Stocks Warren Buffett Loves in 2014

Cisco Systems

Up first is Cisco Systems (CSCO), a $137 billion technology stock that's quietly been stomping the broad market in 2014 -- since the calendar flipped to January, Cisco is up 20%. That's nearly double what buying the S&P 500 would have earned you over the same period. And major industry tailwinds look poised to keep pushing Cisco to higher ground in 2015.

Cisco Systems makes the software and hardware used to connect computer networks. Being the largest IP networking company in the world comes with some big advantages -- and with internet traffic and connectivity needs forecast to keep climbing at a brisk pace, Cisco still has the ability to move the needle on its income statement. The enterprise IT customer is Cisco's bread and butter -- because Cisco's gear is designed to plug-and-play with other Cisco components, IT departments that "keep it in the family" can often see much lower integration and ongoing technical support costs. That gives Cisco an important economic moat right now, even if competition is trying to move in on its business.

From a financial standpoint, Cisco is in solid shape. The firm carries more than $32 billion in net cash on its balance sheet, enough to cover almost a quarter of the firm's market capitalization at current price levels. That's a big risk reducer for investors buying shares today. Look for CSCO's bullish momentum to keep this stock outperforming for the end of the year.

Must Read: 10 Stocks George Soros Is Buying

Boeing

Aerospace giant Boeing (BA) is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the about-face in airlines' fortunes this year. The firm is one of only two major heavy aircraft manufacturers, operating in a duopoly with Airbus -- as airlines take advantage of low borrowing costs to revamp their fleets with more efficient nextgen aircraft, BA shareholders win.

So do the airlines -- jet fuel is the single largest cost for any air carrier, and the materially lower fuel consumption of platforms like the 787 or the 737 NG make the benefits of upgrading a fleet pretty hard to ignore. That's a big driver for the $490 billion backlog at Boeing, an order sheet that amounts to more than four years of sales. Growth in commercial aircraft sales should continue to be the biggest driver of Boeing's top line in the coming years.

Boeing's business isn't just commercial jets. The firm still earns almost 40% of revenues as a defense contractor, even though that sales mix has been dropping over the last several years as BA worked to reduce its exposure to the DoD's budget and the whims of Congress. Today, Boeing's defense business provides nice diversification away from the hugely cyclical commercial side of the income statement, but its shrinking scale is probably a good thing for shareholders.

With rising analyst sentiment in Boeing, we're betting on shares this week...

Must Read: 7 Stocks Warren Buffett Is Selling in 2014

Morgan Stanley

Legacy investment bank Morgan Stanley (MS) has edged out the S&P 500 by a thin margin in 2014 -- but what's interesting is that much of that performance has come just in the last six months. While the big stock index is up nearly 9% over that half-year stretch, MS has rallied almost double that. And with deal volumes on the rise and an equity rally going strong, Morgan Stanley remains an attractive name to own this fall.

Morgan Stanley is one of the legacy investment banks that survived the financial crisis with its name intact. Like other investment banking firms, MS became a bank holding company in the wake of 2008 in a bid to get access to cheap capital and stay afloat -- the flip side to that deal is that the firm is now under regulatory burdens that preclude the profitability levels and returns on equity that Morgan Stanley saw pre-crisis.

Still, record low interest rates coupled with rising equity values means the MS is in an attractive position right now. A rising stock market should fuel more IPOs and M&A activity, driving profits. With prices on the rise, Morgan Stanley's cut for assets under management is bigger too. Likewise, the unlikely event of a rate hike would allow MS to earn bigger fees for its efforts. The firm's willingness to sell off less attractive parts of its business continues to unlock value for shareholders, and boost the firm's net margins. Investors will get their next snapshot of MS' operations on January 15.

Must Read: Warren Buffett's Top 10 Dividend Stocks

Thermo Fisher Scientific

Lab supply company Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) may not exactly be a household name, but it's certainly a familiar brand in scientific laboratories around the world. The firm's catalog of scientific instruments, equipment, and consumables are used by more than 350,000 facilities in applications ranging from life sciences to healthcare to environmental science.

While lab supplies still contribute approximately 40% of TMO's total sales, the firm has been focused on more specialized products that can command bigger margins -- for instance, analytical and diagnostic equipment each generate approximately 20% of sales today. Those specialized tools also give Thermo Fisher an attractive consumables business, a factor that also boosts switching costs (labs are likely to stick with TMO's instruments, for instance, because that means they only need to order one type of disposable slides to feed into them).

Thermo Fisher's growth-by-acquisition approach to growth hasn't historically been the cheapest strategy, but it's worked at boosting the firm's total scale. So while TMO carries $14.5 billion in debt on its balance sheet, that debt load is easily serviced by the firm's cash generation. With rising analyst sentiment in shares of TMO this week, we're betting on shares.

Must Read: 10 Stocks Carl Icahn Loves in 2014

Illinois Tool Works

Last up on our list of Rocket Stocks is Illinois Tool Works (ITW), the industrial manufacturer behind brands like Sub-Zero and Wolf appliances, Rain-X, and ZipPak. Frankly, there are far too many brands to list here -- ITW owns more than 100 individual businesses that make everything from car seat heaters to chemicals. That may seem like an untenable list of operations, but it's actually down from nearly 800 units just a few years ago.

As ITW focuses on its more lucrative businesses, shareholders stand to benefit.

Illinois Tool Works' management is experienced at running a decentralized operation. Unit managers have the discretion to make decisions, and they're able to remain more nimble than they otherwise could as a result. Under the firm's growth plan introduced two years ago, ITW is returning to having some centralized back office functions, a move designed to cut costs without hamstringing the secret to the firm's success in the past. That means individual managers will still have autonomy over their units, but they won't bear the financial burden of duplicated HR and accounting roles.

As an industrial company (most of ITW's biggest brands aren't consumer brands), it's fortunes tend to move in step with the economy. So, as economic numbers continue to show slow progress, so too has ITW's bottom line. Investors should expect some top line decreases from getting rid of slow-growing commoditized businesses, but that tradeoff should pay off longer-term. ITW's price momentum has been stellar for the last month and change, propelling shares to new highs. Now, it still looks like a good time to grab onto this Rocket Stock's upward trajectory.

To see all of this week's Rocket Stocks in action, check out the Rocket Stocks portfolio at Stockpickr.

-- Written by Jonas Elmerraji in Baltimore.

Must Read: 10 Stocks Billionaire John Paulson Loves in 2014

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in the stocks mentioned.

Jonas Elmerraji, CMT, is a senior market analyst at Agora Financial in Baltimore and a contributor to TheStreet. Before that, he managed a portfolio of stocks for an investment advisory that returned 15% in 2008. He has been featured in Forbes , Investor's Business Daily, and on CNBC.com. Jonas holds a degree in financial economics from UMBC and the Chartered Market Technician designation.

Follow Jonas on Twitter @JonasElmerraji

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

What’s Ahead for Wal-Mart;Target Q3 Earnings

Anticipation of the Black Friday deluge is officially upon us with some eager shoppers already camping out at a Best Buy (BBY) in California hoping to score good deals.

At the moment, we aren't searching for deals and discounts. Yet we'd be remiss if we didn't write about two Black Friday biggies, Wal-Mart (WMT) and Target (TGT), which will report earnings in the coming days, were featured today in a note by Janney's David Strasser.

Regarding current overall retail themes, Strasser writes:

As cross currents continue to hit the U.S. consumer, promotions continue to increase earlier in the season as companies aggressively go after fewer dollars. Consensus growth forecasts are being challenged, with a low end consumer that is continuing to struggle. Recent data points show credit companies are pulling back on low end consumers and could add another headwind to this holiday season.

Wal-Mart's defensive characteristics "remain attractive" according to Strasser. He adds:

Business remains tough, but lower gas prices should provide a rare tailwind this holiday. We are modeling third-quarter earnings-per-share of $1.13, slightly ahead of the street at $1.12, driven by a flattish U.S. comp. Traffic remains key and becomes even more important in the back half of the year, as Walmart continues to lap SNAP benefits and anticipates $500 million of incremental healthcare costs this year.

Target, according to Strasser, continues to have room for improvement, and will be one to watch. When it comes to Target's CEO, Strasser writes:

We believe there are many opportunities for improvement, as Mr. Cornell fully embraces the CEO position. We are modeling third-quarter EPS of 47 cents, a penny below consensus as U.S. traffic continues to struggle, and the Canadian segment remains unprofitable.

Wal-Mart reports Thursday and is down 0.64% in trading this afternoon. Target reports on Nov. 19 and is up 0.02%. Competitors Kohl's (KSS) and Nordstrom (JWN) also report Thursday with Kohl's down 0.83% and Nordstrom has dropped 2.40%.

Monday, December 22, 2014

New Catalyst Could Mean Cheaper Biofuels Production

This article was written by Oilprice.com, the leading provider of energy news in the world. Also check out these related articles:

U.S. Firm Angers Dubliners With Plan For Waste-to-Energy Generator New Cellulosic Ethanol Plant Commercializes Renewable Fuel

Biofuels are renewable and clean alternatives to fossil fuels, but they can be difficult to produce because their source, biomass, contains a fair amount of oxygen. That makes them less stable, too viscous and less efficient than the fuels they're meant to replace.

Using iron as a catalyst to remove the oxygen is inexpensive, but the water in organic biomass can rust the iron, canceling its effectiveness. Another metal, palladium, is rust resistant, but it's not as efficient as iron in removing the oxygen, and it's far more expensive than plentiful iron.

So researchers at Washington State University (WSU) and the U.S. Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) decided to combine the two.

Evoking images of Julia Child in a lab coat and goggles, they added just a pinch of palladium to iron, a recipe that efficiently removes oxygen from biomass without the rust. A meal fit for a gourmet, as it were, at the cost of a cheeseburger.

The paper on their work was chosen as the cover story in the October issue of the scientific journal ACS Catalysis. In it, the researchers said they discovered that combining iron with very small amounts of palladium helped to cover the catalyst's surface with hydrogen, which accelerates the process of turning biomass into biofuel.

"With biofuels, you need to remove as much oxygen as possible to gain energy density," Yong Wang, who led the research, told the WSU news department. "Of course, in the process, you want to minimize the costs of oxygen removal."

Kitchen metaphors aside, Wang's team didn't limit themselves to skillets, knives and can openers, but relied instead on high-resolution transmission electron microscopy, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and extended X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy. In other words, very sophisticated gear.

These tools led them to understand how the atoms on the surface of the two different catalysts – one made solely of iron, the other made solely of palladium – react with the biomass lignin, the woody material found in most plants. Wang said this led to the idea of combining the two metals.

"The synergy between the palladium and the iron is incredible," said Wang, who holds a joint appointment with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and WSU. "When combined, the catalyst is far better than the metals alone in terms of activity, stability and selectivity."

The goal of the research is to create what are known as "drop-in biofuels" – direct substitutes for gasoline, diesel fuel and jet fuel that can be used interchangeably with fossil fuels in today's vehicles. So far, that effort has failed because today's biofuels have too much oxygen and are thus less efficient than fossil fuels and can even damage systems built for fossil fuels.

To date, Wang's team has converted biomass into biofuel only in a laboratory. Now, he said, he'd like to expand his work and move it to an environment that's more like a biofuel production plant.

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Stop garnishing my paycheck!

Natasha Small, right, shown with her daughter, makes $29,000 a year and is now getting her paycheck slashed by $400 a month. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) When you're only earning $29,000 a year, getting your paycheck slashed by $400 a month can be financially devastating.

That's the situation 34-year-old Natasha Small is in.

After being laid off by a law firm in 2009, Small finally found a full-time job last spring as a debt collector. But a few weeks in, she was told by an HR person that the state of Washington had garnished her wages by $400 a month.

Why?

A few years earlier, the state said it had overpaid Small $11,000 in unemployment benefits.

The two sides don't agree about what happened. Washington state's Employment Security Department, which is in charge of administering benefits, says Small was at fault because she reported that she was earning no income when she had worked two temporary jobs.

Small said those jobs lasted for 30 and 60 days and that she reported every cent she received but continued receiving the benefits.

But in the end it doesn't matter -- the state wants its money back.

Small was able to pay back $500, and another $6,400 was taken from her tax refunds. But that still leaves over $3,000, some of which is interest.

So Small, who has two teens, has had her monthly pay (after taxes) cut from $2,100 a month to about $1,700.

Small's bi-weekly paycheck.

Making that stretch is very hard: Rent, ($1,050), utilities ($100 to $174) and gas for the family car ($200) leave about $300 a month for food. And four mouths to feed.

Fortunately, her husband, after being out of work, just found a warehouse job that will bring in an extra $15 an hour. But he won't get his first paycheck for another couple of weeks.

The family has canceled cable TV and downgraded to the cheapest Internet service they could find. No one has a cell phone -- just a home phone they qualified for through a financial assistance program.

"Having that $400 back would do wonders," she said. "I wouldn't have to worry how my kids are eating, and if my kid! s need new shoes I could get them new shoes and I wouldn't have to worry that I would be taking that money from some other necessity."

And Small is just one of millions of Americans being hit with wage garnishments.

More than 7% of workers nationwide had their wages garnished last year, according to a report from payroll processor ADP conducted as part of an investigation by ProPublica and NPR.

The rate was highest -- at 10% -- among people earning between $25,000 and $39,999 per year.

More than 40% of garnishments are for child support payments. Tax debts make up about 20%, and the rest are for other consumer debts like Small's.

Sen. Warren cites CNNMoney story in hearing

To garnish someone's wages, the entity collecting the debt -- which can be a government agency, a company or private debt collector -- must sue the consumer and get a court order.

Garnishment is typically a last resort for creditors, after consumers stop paying their debts or default entirely. There are some limits under federal law. No more than 25% of disposable earnings can be seized, for example.

But beyond that, states pretty much determine their own policies, said U.S. Labor Department spokesman Jason Kuruvilla.

"Unfortunately some states can be more strict than others," he said.

For Small, who says she can't keep up with the rent and is on the brink of being evicted, filing bankruptcy seems to be the only way out.

"I was trying to avoid bankruptcy, but finally I just couldn't breathe," she said. "I don't have any option right now but to run from my debt, because if I don't, my kids will be homeless again. And I'm not letting that happen."

Grieving parents hit with $200,000 in student ! loan debt!

1 in 3 adults have debt in collections

Sunday, December 21, 2014

Feeling Disappointed by BlackBerryâ€™s 33% Revenue Drop? Hereâ€™s Why Not to Lose Faith

Canadian software and security giant BlackBerry (BBRY) reported its fiscal 2015 third quarter numbers recently. Despite a positive bottom-line, the stock took a beating as revenues were in red and shares dropped by more than 5%. For the three months period the company reported net revenues of $793 million, down by a flabbergasting 33% from prior year period's $1.19 billion. Even the bottom line came at a negative $148 million or $0.28 a share. However, after adjusting for non-recurring onetime costs, it improved to $16 million or $0.01 a share.

The Wall Street and the investors weren't much happy about the numbers. But, should the investors really be disappointed? I think we are missing the bigger picture – that of a recovering BlackBerry. Here are some signs that should help the investors keep faith in the tech behemoth.

#1: Improving fundamentals
Revenue is always a key factor while analyzing the numbers of a quarter and the company understands that the performance has been below expectations. But BlackBerry is not bogged down or depressed by this fact. Instead, CEO John Chen during the earnings call said, "It is my belief that we can grow and stabilize the revenue or stabilize and grow the revenue of the company in FY '16 and while we will make every attempt to stay profitable going forward, sustainable profitability only comes from revenue growth and that is certainly our strategy here…To see this revenue growth we probably need a couple of quarters."

John Chen is devising a turnaround strategy and according to the plan right now it was time to focus on lowering losses and building cash. If we take a closer look at the quarter's numbers, we will find both of these occuring. For the quarter losses came to $148 million. Now, compare that with prior year period's $4.4 billion. Isn't that a significant improvement? Even if we compare the figure with sequentially prior quarter's $207 million, the latest figure hints at a recovering bottom line. That's encouraging! Next, turning to the cash position, year to quarter BlackBerry has generated $603 million of cash from operations. Compared to prior year period's $405 million, that's a 49% improvement. Even free cash flow increased to $532 million, up from previous year's $145 million.

#2: Back to the basics
As the smartphone space evolved, BlackBerry, in order to stay competitive, changed a lot of things. Among all that changes the company lost certain things that were responsible for making Blackberry the success story it was. However, the company has realized this and has renewed its focus on bringing back the age-old BlackBerry signature features, such as the very popular trackpad. In September the company successfully launched BlackBerry Passport and recently it launched BlackBerry Classic. Both the devices offer the superior security features that the Canadian phone maker is famous for. The company has brought back the trackpad to life through the Classic model. Both the devices offer a full blown QWERTY keyboard experience that all BlackBerry users yearn for. The company has finally started listening to the king called customer.

Next, John Chen understands the core competency of BlackBerry lies in software security, and that's why he's working on turning BlackBerry from a hardware focused company to a software focused one. During the quarter, equal share of revenues came from the hardware and the services businesses (46% each), and the remaining 8% came from software sales.

#3: A strong new partnership
Yes, you guessed it right. I am speaking of the BlackBerry-Boeing (BA) partnership. It's not a totally new development and those who have been following the stock knew about this for some time now. However, the mention of this made sense in the context of the discussion. Boeing is working with BlackBerry to manufacture a self-destructing smartphone meant for secret government agencies, known as Boeing Black. Though the device will be powered by Google's (GOOG) Android platform, BlackBerry will help the aero major to make it secured using its BES 12 platform.Several high-profile government agencies are already customer of the Canadian tech giant and this partnership should further strengthen Blackberry's position in the software security market, helping it create a virtual monopoly in this space.

About the author:Quick PenA seasonal writer with a Management Degree in Finance and interests in automotive, technology, telecommunication and aerospace sectors.

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Crocs Has Indeed Lost Its Mettle

People's tastes and preferences keep changing with the changing times. So was the case with the footwear industry, when Crocs' (CROX) fancy and new style shoes took over the market. Customers became highly fascinated with the new style of resin-molded shoes which came in a variety of bright colors. It became a fashion statement. However, a few years later, this fascination started to fade away as customers got bored of the same old style. Crocs' footwear became tacky for the same lot of customers. This resulted in sharp decline in the retailers' revenue.

Therefore, the company is still struggling to overcome the after effects of the situation. But this time Crocs wanted to differ. Its recently reported second quarter results were ahead of the Street's estimates, enabling its share price to move north.

Numbers accompanied with restructuring plans

The footwear retailer's revenue inched up slightly to $363.8 million from $376.9 million in last year's quarter. The top line was higher than the analysts' estimate of $372.8 million. Even the bottom line was higher than the estimates, clocking in at $0.36 per share. However, this was lower than the prior year's EPS of $0.48 per share.

The primary driver of sales increase was revenue from Europe, which surged 20% during the quarter. This contributed to the top line since both North America and Europe are the key markets and make 85% of the overall revenue. On the contrary, sales in the regions such as Asia were weak. For instance, revenue from Japan dropped 9.4% to $41 million. Therefore, the company plans to reduce its investments in such smaller markets, including China, Japan and Korea.

What the turnaround plan entails?

Crocs announced its plans to restructure its business in order to make it more profitable. It has become quite evident from its second quarter numbers, that the retailer has mainly hit on the bottom line. In order to boost its earnings, it has firstly decided to cut jobs. This job cut is expected to save $4 million in this year and $10 million in the year 2015.

It will be closing or converting 75 to 100 stores and will lay off 183 workers, in order to grow its net income. The converted stores will remain Crocs stores, but will be run by third party operators. Although the store closures would reduce the revenue base, but will also result in a cost saving of $17 million to $25 million.

Further, it plans to change its product portfolio by cutting down on its shoe styles by 30% to 40%. It will now focus on the signature designs only such as flip flops, sandals, classic clogs and flats. It will also focus on styles like high heels and leather boots.

What is also important for Crocs is to bring in new products, which will attract customers to its stores. Innovation has been key to footwear retailers' success. For instance, Nike (NKE) has been able to register growth and create demand by bringing new technological advancements, which force customers to own Nike products. Continuous strive to introduce products such as FuelBand, Nike Free and many more, have been instrumental to its growth.

Summary

Although Crocs is on the right track to control costs, it is difficult to say how far it will be beneficial in the longer term. Not only costs, but also revenue should be taken care of. In order to do that, it is important for the retailer to have new products in its stores. Therefore, investors should stay away from this company.

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Saturday, December 20, 2014

5 Hated Earnings Stocks You Should Love

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- Short-sellers hate being caught short a stock that reports a blowout quarter. When this happens, we often see a tradable short squeeze develop as the bears rush to cover their positions to avoid big losses. Even the best short-sellers know that it's never a great idea to stay short once a bullish earnings report sparks a big short-covering rally.

>>5 Stocks Insiders Love Right Now  

This is why I scan the market for heavily shorted stocks that are about to report earnings. You only need to find a few of these stocks in a year to help enhance your portfolio returns -- the gains become so outsized in such a short time frame that your profits add up quickly.

That said, let's not forget that stocks are heavily shorted for a reason, so you have to use trading discipline and sound money management when playing earnings short-squeeze candidates. It's important that you don't go betting the farm on these plays and that you manage your risk accordingly. Sometimes the best play is to wait for the stock to break out following the report before you jump in to profit off a short squeeze. This way, you're letting the trend emerge after the market has digested all of the news.

Of course, sometimes the stock is going to be in such high demand that you risk missing a lot of the move by waiting. That's why it can be worth betting prior to the report -- but only if the stock is acting technically very bullish and you have a very strong conviction that it is going to rip higher. Just remember that even when you have that conviction and have done your due diligence, the stock can still get hammered if Wall Street doesn't like the numbers or guidance.

>>5 Stocks Under $10 Set to Soar 

If you do decide to bet ahead of a quarter, then you might want to use options to limit your capital exposure. Heavily shorted stocks are usually the names that make the biggest post-earnings moves and have the most volatility. I personally prefer to wait until all the earnings-related news is out for a heavily shorted stock and then jump in and trade the prevailing trend.

With that in mind, here's a look at several stocks that could experience big short squeezes when they report earnings this week.

Twitter

My first earnings short-squeeze play is social media player Twitter (TWTR), which is set to release numbers on Tuesday after the market close. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect Twitter to report revenue of $283.07 million on a loss of 1 cent per share. Recently, Sterne Agee predicted a Twitter earnings beat for the second quarter, maintaining a neutral rating on the stock.

The current short interest as a percentage of the float for Twitter is notable at around 8%. That means that out of the 428.10 million shares in the tradable float, 33.86 million shares are sold short by the bears. If the bulls get the earnings news they're looking for, then shares of Twitter could easily rip sharply higher post-earnings as the bears move to cover some of their bets.

From a technical perspective, TWTR is currently trending above its 50-day moving average, which is bullish. This stock has been basing and consolidating over the last month, with shares moving sideways between $35.95 on the downside and around $40 on the upside. Any high-volume move above the upper-end of its recent sideways trading chart pattern could easily trigger a big breakout trade post-earnings.

If you're bullish on TWTR, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $39 to $39.38 a share and then above more resistance at $40 a share with high volume. Look for volume on that move that registers near or above its three-month average volume of 30.15 million shares. If that breakout triggers post-earnings, then TWTR will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $42.95 to $43.97 a share. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give TWTR a chance to tag $47 to $50 a share.

I would simply avoid TWTR or look for short-biased trades if after earnings it fails to trigger that breakout and then drops back below its 50-day moving average of $36.51 a share and then below more key support at $35.95 a share high volume. If we get that move, then TWTR will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major support levels at $32.50 to $31.62 a share, or even $30 to $29.50 a share.

Twitter was also featured recently in "5 Stocks Hedge Funds Love This Summer."

Read More: 5 Toxic Stocks You Should Sell This Summer

Iconix Brand Group

Another potential earnings short-squeeze trade idea is consumer brand portfolio player Iconix Brand Group (ICON), which is set to release its numbers on Wednesday before the market open. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect Iconix Brand Group to report revenue $117.08 million on earnings of 67 cents per share. Recently, Cowen initiated coverage on Iconix Brand Group with an outperform rating and a $52 per share price target on the stock.

The current short interest as a percentage of the float for Iconix Brand Group is extremely high at 20.5%. That means that out of the 44.45 million shares in the tradable float, 9.14 million shares are sold short by the bears. This is a large short interest on a stock with a relatively low tradable float. If the bulls get the earnings news they're expecting, then shares of ICON could easily surge sharply higher post-earnings as the bears rush to cover some of their positions.

From a technical perspective, ICON is currently trending above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock has been trending sideways and consolidating for the last three months, with shares moving between $40.33 on the downside and $44.81 on the upside. Shares of ICON have now started to spike higher right above its 50-day moving average of $42.59 and it's quickly moving within range of triggering a big breakout trade above the upper-end of its recent sideways trading chart pattern.

If you're in the bull camp on ICON, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to break out above some key near-term overhead resistance levels at $43.52 to $43.99 a share and then once it takes out its 52-week high at $44.81 a share with high volume. Look for volume on that move that hits near or above its three-month average volume of 525,362 shares. If that breakout materializes post-earnings, then ICON will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $55 to $60 a share, or even $65 a share.

I would simply avoid ICON or look for short-biased trades if after earnings it fails to trigger that breakout and then drops back below some key near-term support levels at $42 to $41.33 a share and then below $40.33 a share with high volume. If we get that move, then ICON will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major support levels at its 200-day moving average of $39.47 to $37 a share.

Read More: 5 Large-Cap Stocks to Trade for Earnings Season Gains

Aegerion Pharmaceuticals

Another potential earnings short-squeeze candidate is biopharmaceutical player Aegerion Pharmaceuticals (AEGR), which is set to release numbers on Tuesday after the market close. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect Aegerion Pharmaceuticals to report revenue of $35.40 million on a loss of 41 cents per share.

Back in late May, Goldman Sachs initiated shares of Aegerion Pharmaceuticals with a sell rating and a $27 per share price target. The firm believes that competition will limit the growth of Aegerion's Juxtapid.

The current short interest as a percentage of the float for Aegerion Pharmaceuticals is extremely high at 24.3%. That means that out of the 28.35 million shares in the tradable float, 6.89 million shares are sold short by the bears. This is a monster short interest on a stock with a very low tradable float. Any bullish earnings news could easily spark a large short-covering rally post-earnings for shares of AEGR.

From a technical perspective, AEGR is currently trending below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bearish. This stock recently tagged a new 52-week low at $26.25 a share. Following that low, shares of AEGR have started to rebound and trend higher with the stock printing an intraday high on Friday of $30.12 a share. That rebound is starting to push shares of AEGR within range of triggering a big breakout trade post-earnings.

If you're bullish on AEGR, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to break out above its 50-day moving average of $31.60 a share to more near-term overhead resistance at around $33 a share with high volume. Look for volume on that move that hits near or above its three-month average action of 1.06 million shares. If that breakout gets set off post-earnings, then AEGR will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance level at $35.46 a share to its gap-down-day high from May at $36.55 a share. Any high-volume move above $36.55 will then give AEGR a chance to re-fill some of its previous gap-down-day zone that started just above $45 a share.

I would avoid AEGR or look for short-biased trades if after earnings it fails to trigger that breakout and then takes out some key near-term support levels at $27.50 to its 52-week low of $26.25 a share with high volume. If we get that move, then AEGR will set up to enter new 52-week-low territory, which is bearish technical price action. Some possible downside targets off that move are $20 to $18 a share.

Read More: 3 Huge Stocks on Traders' Radars

Garmin

Another earnings short-squeeze prospect is global positioning systems player Garmin (GRMN), which is set to release numbers on Wednesday before the market open. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect Garmin to report revenue of $709.25 million on earnings of 76 cents per share. Recently, Citigroup raised its price target for Garmin shares to $70 and reiterated its buy rating on the stock.

The current short interest as a percentage of the float for Garmin is pretty high at around 15%. That means that out of the 121.85 million shares in the tradable float, 17.92 million shares are sold short by the bears. If this company can deliver the earnings news the bulls are looking for, then shares of GRMN could easily spike sharply higher post-earnings as the bears jump to cover some of their trades.

From a technical perspective, GRMN is currently trending above its 200-day moving average and just below its 50-day moving average, which is neutral trendwise. This stock has been uptrending over the last six months, with shares moving higher from its low of $42.33 to its recent high of $62.065 a share. During that uptrend, shares of GRMN have been making mostly higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of GRMN within range of triggering a big breakout trade post-earnings.

If you're bullish on GRMN, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to break out above its 50-day moving average of $58.44 to $60 a share and then once it clears its 52-week high at $62.05 a share with high volume. Look for volume on that move that hits near or above its three-month average action of 1.34 million shares. If that breakout kicks off post-earnings, then GRMN will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory above $62.05, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $70 to $80 a share.

I would simply avoid GRMN or look for short-biased trades if after earnings it fails to trigger that breakout and then takes out some key near-term support levels at $55.93 to $54 a share with high volume. If we get that move, then GRMN will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major support level at its 200-day moving average of $51.56 a share.

Read More: Hedge Funds Hate These 5 Stocks -- Should You?

LifeLock

My final earnings short-squeeze play is identity theft protection services and fraud risk solutions player LifeLock (LOCK), which is set to release numbers on Wednesday after the market close. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect LifeLock to report revenue of $113.92 million on earnings of 4 cents per share.

The current short interest as a percentage of the float for LifeLock is very high at 17.5%. That means that out of the 56.90 million shares in the tradable float, 9.97 million shares are sold short by the bears. The bears have also been increasing their bets from the last reporting period by 8.3%, or by about 767,000 shares. If the bears get caught pressing their bets into a bullish quarter, then shares of LOCK could easily explode sharply higher post-earnings as the shorts rush to cover some of their trades.

From a technical perspective, LOCK is currently trending above its 50-day moving average and well below its 200-day moving average, which is neutral trendwise. This stock recently formed a double bottom chart pattern at $12.45 to $12.30 a share. Following that bottom, shares of LOCK have started to spike higher back above its 50-day moving average at $12.53 a share and it's quickly moving within range of triggering a big breakout trade above some key near-term overhead resistance levels.

If you're in the bull camp on LOCK, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to break out above some key near-term overhead resistance levels at $13.33 to $14.35 a share with high volume. Look for volume on that move that registers near or above its three-month average action of 1.76 million shares. If that breakout gets underway post-earnings, then LOCK will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at its 200-day moving average of $16.06 to $16.20, or even $17.03 to $18 a share. Any high-volume move above $18 will then give LOCK a chance to make a run at $20 a share.

I would avoid LOCK or look for short-biased trades if after earnings it fails to trigger that breakout, and then drops back below its 50-day moving average of $12.53 a share to more key support at $12.30 to around $12 a share with high volume. If we get that move, then LOCK will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major support levels at $10.92 to its 52-week low at $10.48 a share. Any high-volume move below $10.48 will then give LOCK a chance to enter new 52-week-low territory, which is bearish technical price action.

To see more potential earnings short squeeze plays, check out the Earnings Short-Squeeze Plays portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.

Thursday, December 18, 2014

Week In FX Europe â€“ Forex Market Seek Risk/Reward Opportunities

EUR Squeezed on the crosses Geo-political risks aids commodities FED content with low-rate environment

All any forex trader requires is some kind of market movement. A move either up or down, not the ‘contained' ranges that ends up more often trading sideways. This has been a common occurrence throughout the fist-half of 2014. Unfortunately, this type of market movement limits notable trading opportunities, and certainly calls into question the risk/reward of undertaking various trades.

For those not World Cup tied, this past week has been a trading feast, full of worthwhile prospects backed by a surprising Fed and a massive uptick in geopolitical risks.

In midweek, Ms. Yellen and company at the Fed gave the market the green light to proceed with business as usual by reiterating “lower for longer rate policy.” This reassurance has taken many in the market by surprise. Dealers and investors were very much positioned for more hawkish rhetoric from the Fed head.

The fixed-income market had been pricing an aggressive showing by the Fed, especially on the back of this weeks surprising American inflation report. The unexpectedly large increase to the May CPI report (+0.4%, m/m and +2.1%, y/y) was suppose to provide fodder for the FOMC ‘hawks'. The market was looking for any indication that the Fed debate would be shifting from “reducing” to “removing” policy accommodation. This favored higher US short-term rates, the dollar in demand and the value of equities being questioned.

However, the dovish outcome had investors scrambling to unwind some dollar longs, squeezed the short EUR positions and breathed some much needed life back into the commodity market (aided by Ukraine and Iraq). Now that that noise is over, where does the market go to from here? Again the market is back to watching fundamentals, looking for inflation data scraps, just like CAD's surprising CPI data that could change the BoC script. The loonie got a lift early Friday, squeezing the EUR on the cross.

A low rate environment certainly promotes low volatility and endorses the popular “carry trade. Until the markets gets sustainable rate divergence by G10 Central Banks, either the Fed hikes or the ECB follows through with an ‘easing monetary policy,' we can expect more of the same, peppered and trumped by geo-political risk. This risk tends to be priced in by weeks end and unwound at the beginning of every week.

The metals markets appear to be increasingly more critical of the Fed's inflation-curbing credentials however, piling into the “store of value” trade. Aiding commodity prices is the escalating tension in Iraq which continues to lure investors into safer haven assets and reason enough to see gold rally to its biggest intraday gain in nine-month ($1,312oz) this week. The yellow metal has managed to climb +5% this month alone. Crude has seen a similar story, with Brent ($115) trading +5.5% during the same time period, supported by distribution and potential supply constraints as the holiday driving season gets underway stateside. The longer the Iraqi insurgency lasts the more difficult it will be for Iraq to fulfill its daily production quota (around +6m bpd) which would have massive implications for oil markets and commodity sensitive currencies in the foreseeable future.

Traders can now be expected to lean more heavily on geo-political concerns until Central Banks break with “business as usual.”

On tap for next week:

The market will be focusing on global manufacturing PMI's, starting with China this weekend. Chinese indices are mixed going into Sunday's flash PMI release. The most recent figure of 49.4 was a five-month high, albeit the fifth consecutive month in contraction. Europe and German follow on Monday. In the midst of the first round of the World Cup, traders will get to gage German business and US consumer sentiment. After US durables the week wounds off with German preliminary inflation numbers.

Bulgaria Central Bank Confirms Run on Corpbank – MarketPulse IMF's Lagarde: ECB Should Consider QE – MarketPulse BOE Declares Rate Rises Depend on Economy – MarketPulse U.K. House Price Growth Slowing – MarketPulse UK Lobby Group Says Strong GBP Could Stun Manufacturing Growth – MarketPulse UK Retail Sales Drop in May – MarketPulse Dublin Housing Rise Increases Homelessness – MarketPulse Error Leads to UK Trade Statistics Suspension – MarketPulse Oil Drops After Strong Inventories Despite Iraq – MarketPulse Ukraine and Russia Hash Out Ceasefire Plan – MarketPulse Europe Built Up Gas Inventories Preempting Russia-Ukraine Negotiations – MarketPulse Russia Needs US Technology to Access Oil Reserves – MarketPulse GBP Rises To Five Year High On BoE Hawkish Comments – MarketPulse UK House Prices Rise to Four Year High at 9.9% – MarketPulse Russia Withstands Economic Malaise As Putin Ratings Rise – MarketPulse Carney Boosts GBP To 9% Gain in 2014 – MarketPulse European Deflation Fears Advance With Low CPI – MarketPulse UK Low Productivity Unexplained by BOE – MarketPulse BOE's Bean: First Rate Rise Will Signal Economy Is Healing – MarketPulse

WEEK AHEAD

* CNY HSBC China Flash Manufacturing PMI
* USD Gross Domestic Product
* JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index
* EUR German Ifo Business Climate
* GBP Gross Domestic Product

The following article is from one of our external contributors. It does not represent the opinion of Benzinga and has not been edited.

Posted-In: Forex Markets

Originally posted here...

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